It would greatly enhance the US deterrence in the Pacific to deploy as many 5th generation A/Fs as possible, such as the F-22 and F-35, for the same reason the Pentagon needed to send more F-35s to the Eastern Europe immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As things stand today, it seems unlikely that either Russia or China can truly challenge the US and NATO in the air. China probably knows this, as the small number of J-20 fighters it has can only be used from land runways while the J-31 carrier-based fighters are now starting to enter service.
The US Air Force has several F-35s. Even if a J-20 could compete with an F-35 in the air – and there is little to no evidence that it could – there simply aren’t enough of them to take on multiple squadrons of US F-35s. “Mass matters.” If the US quickly achieves air superiority in the event of a war with China over Taiwan, Chinese amphibious forces could be destroyed directly and quickly from the air. The challenge is simply finding a way to develop the fighters to present a credible and available deterrent against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The ability to get to the potential theater of war quickly enough and in large enough numbers appears to be the challenge, as US and allied 5th generation aircraft will need to be in close range. Taiwan is only 100 miles from mainland China and could be “flooded” by Chinese ships and aircraft. In addition, China has a large arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. The challenge for the US is to find a way to get the F-35s close enough to force China to stop. How can US F-35s get there?
Japan has bought several F-35s but these will be delivered gradually. However, Japanese territory is 500 to 600 miles from Taiwan. There is also the US territory of Guam, which is in close proximity to Taiwan, yet Australia and most of Southeast Asia may be too far for F-35s to arrive in time to destroy a Chinese amphibious landing.
The key to F-35 availability in the Pacific may lie with the US Navy, as it has the ability to deploy a large number of warships to the region. This includes not only Carrier Strike Groups with F-35Cs but also amphibious assault ships. An often under-recognized aspect of the “America” class ships is that each of them can operate up to 15 F-35s allowing a massive 5th generation US air force to be assembled in Taiwanese waters quickly (please read the analysis titled “The US Navy is turning its Helicopter Carriers into Mini-aircraft Carriers with F-35Bs“). Speed is of the essence here.
Should Chinese forces land and establish themselves in Taiwan, it would be extremely difficult to dislodge them. 5th generation fighters may really be the only option to stop a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, perhaps along with US attack submarines. The Chinese Navy is already larger than that of the US, but this does not mean that it is in any way superior.
However, the Chinese navy has or will soon have aircraft carriers, advanced destroyers and other modern vessels. China’s land power is also quite large and formidable. In the air, however, just by looking at the numbers, the US looks capable of quickly achieving supremacy. And that’s thanks to the F-35. If the Pentagon can push enough of these into the Pacific China will stop. And their mere presence in sufficient numbers may be enough to deter China from launching an all-out attack.
