Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO will proceed smoothly. The threat of a veto by Turkey was dealt with in a way that everyone declares victorious. At least based on the result, it appears that the Atlantic Alliance has adapted to the will of Turkey. In any case, since the negotiations took place, Turkey has received compensation in exchange for withdrawing the threat.
The Nordic countries claim that what was agreed with Turkey does not contradict their principles, values and legislation! This is a matter of substance – not just moral – for the West as a whole, even though everyone is silent. Because just the need to make this clarification means something. There is a festive atmosphere in Turkey. This is to be expected, as in the run-up to the elections, the regime media portrays an image of a leader to whom the Atlantic Alliance has submitted.
The non-filing of the Turkish veto
This is largely right, because Erdogan put issues on the table and in return he secured and verified in practice the stereotype that prevails within NATO, especially in Washington, about “irreplaceable Turkey”. So a compromise was reached with a microscopic-tactical approach to the problem, which if examined macroscopically-strategically, affects the image of NATO. In any case, Erdogan, encouraged by the successful outcome, will continue to apply this diplomatic tactic to secure more exchanges on all fronts.
The Atlantic Alliance has won to the extent that it has made the accession of Sweden and Finland a top priority. These two countries have won for exactly the same reason, although in a sense they have trampled on their traditional principles to achieve this. Turkey records the most significant gains. On the one hand, she “sold” her veto withdrawal in a way that at the same time, at home she could claim that she “took it all and left” and abroad that she proved in practice that she was unjustly accused of being alienated from the West.
Almost at the same time, the donation of TB-2 Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukraine was announced. In fact, Russia refrains from using the accusatory rhetoric it uses against other countries, in order not to act as an accelerator of Turkey’s rapprochement with NATO. The Turks have not done badly either.
There are good reports of Turkish blackmail. But in practice the trustworthy allies who do not create problems receive nice words and blows to the back, while the blackmailers receive tangible rewards. Foreign policy has always been a conflict of interests, wills and cynicism.
The declaration will be judged in practice
The reference to Finland-Sweden co-operation in the fight against terrorism with Turkey may have some constructive ambiguity, but leaves no doubt as to who won, even if the Scandinavians claim they still uphold the principles and values. their! The issue of extraditing Kurdish or Turkish dissidents will soon be raised. Ankara will set it in Stockholm and Helsinki. And the Scandinavians will “tighten the noose” on Kurdish activists in a way that has not been done before.
Between the extradition of a person and the direct refusal, there is the “friendly suggestion” to leave the country. It will be interesting to see, for example, what happens to Turkish opposition journalist Abdullah Bozkurt (with the Nordic Monitor website) who has taken refuge in Stockholm, having fled Turkey where he is accused of having an affair with Imam Gulen. Let us remember that Abdullah Ocalan was not extradited by Syria to Turkey. He was simply told that if he did not leave Damascus voluntarily, the Assad regime would be obliged to hand him over.
One of the provisions of the agreement is the lifting of any embargo on the defense industry, as Turkey has sought in recent years. An embargo imposed due to Turkey’s performance in the wider human rights sector. Have these causes ceased to exist or have they worsened? He also wants to ask whether this is a success for Erdogan.
F-16 and Halkbank
The US was almost exhausted after the announcement of the agreement that it does not include anything related to the purchase of 40 F-16 fighters of the most modern version (Block 70/72) and the upgrade of another 80 in the same configuration. However, there were no reports of litigation with Halkbank and the threat of a multi-billion dollar fine. A case involving the Erdogan family itself in Turkey-Iran co-operation aimed at circumventing US sanctions on Tehran.
This is a higher priority for the Turkish leader. Because if the deadly and personal threat is removed, the claim of the F-16s does not have to be made by pressuring the US. Given the lifting of the arms embargo, why should the Turks not open negotiations with the Swedish SAAB for the co-production of the excellent both operationally and economically JAS 39 Gripen fighters? Along with technological cooperation in the context of the development of the Turkish “fifth generation” fighter aircraft?
The American parties in the Swedish fighter can raise the same obstacles as the F-16 case. The potentially golden deal, however, will be a very strong incentive for Sweden to make further adjustments to its policy. After all, having developed highly advanced military technologies, the Swedes on many occasions did not hesitate to secretly encroach on the famous “principles and values” to promote export contracts. This tactic is “butter in the bread” of Erdogan.
But Congress can block, through its chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and not only, the export of defense equipment to Turkey.
This also serves the White House to some extent, as it provides a convincing alibi for the Joe Biden government. It may be enough to settle the Halkbank case, but in the face of the prospect of losing the Turkish market, the pressure on Senator Menendez will become unbearable. The argument of American national interest will not be easily overtaken.
Diplomacy has demonstrated its ability to handle such situations in a Mesoamerican way, as evidenced by the lifting of the Turkish veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Turkey “loaded the basket” against the Scandinavians and aggravated the situation. Turkey ended up at the negotiating table and came out with tangible exchanges.
