Many questions have arisen since US President Donald Trump announced a $142 billion defense arms deal with Saudi Arabia, which has been described as “the largest defense sales deal in history.”
The deal, announced during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East this week, was billed as ambitious and far-reaching, encompassing purchases related to aviation and space, missile defense, coastal security and various other upgrades.
But like the broader $600 billion economic agreement of which it is a part, the defense deal lacks specifics. Administration skeptics have been quick to question the numbers.
One of them is that Saudi Arabia’s entire annual defense budget is $78 billion, according to the Brookings Institution. But the numbers don’t add up.
Details are missing
The White House, the Pentagon and the Saudi embassy did not immediately respond to requests for details of the deal, such as which systems the kingdom will buy, the terms of the potential contract and delivery schedules. The State Department referred questions to the White House.
To be sure, both Democratic and Republican administrations have a long tradition of “recycling” past deals into ambitious, high-profile announcements for presidents to sign during international trips. Trump did it before, on his first trip to Saudi Arabia in 2017, when he announced that the Saudis would spend $110 billion on American weapons to modernize their armed forces.
That package included deals negotiated under the Obama administration, as well as others in the early stages of a lengthy process that requires congressional approval and negotiations between the buyer and defense contractors.
To date, the 2017 deal has yielded more than $30 billion in completed military sales to Saudi Arabia, according to a State Department briefing in January.
Saudi Arabia’s resilience
Another potential obstacle is Saudi Arabia’s ability to afford massive defense spending amid falling oil prices and severe domestic financial obligations.
The country has been forced to borrow more, with debt rising by about $30 billion—to a record high in the first quarter. If the White House and Saudi Arabia finally reach an agreement, analysts will begin to sort out what is new and what is a recycling of previous deals.
There are already more than $129 billion in active U.S. military sales to Saudi Arabia, according to the State Department.
U.S.-Saudi Relations
While the numbers are vague, they may not matter all that much. The deal highlights the depth of the U.S.-Saudi strategic relationship. And that’s something Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will surely appreciate after years of uncertainty.
Former President Joe Biden called him a “pariah” for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and froze arms sales to the kingdom.
It is an attempt to send a message of reassurance after several years of uncertainty in US-Saudi defense relations. The deal is likely to have tangible results, especially in the area of missile defense, where the US has expertise and Saudi Arabia has serious needs.
At a time when some traditional US allies in Europe are hesitant to buy American weapons, Saudi Arabia’s willingness to do so is seen as welcome.
Military advantage
Even without details, it is estimated that the scale and complexity of the planned arms purchases from Saudi Arabia could threaten Israel’s “qualitative military advantage” in the region — something that American presidents have consistently pledged to maintain.
Without more specifics on specific weapons systems, there is no immediate reason to worry about Israeli advantage.
The Saudis are seeking a formal mutual defense agreement with the United States, as well as a civilian nuclear program, because they do not trust the United States 100%.
Faced with multiple threats and chronic doubts about the credibility of the United States, the Saudis will continue to maintain alternatives, reducing tension with Iran and developing relations with China and Russia — while also pursuing “loots” like the F-35 fighter jet.
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