India’s decision of 5th August to abolish the special regime of political autonomy granted by India to the state of Jammu & Kashmir in which most of its inhabitants are Muslims in religion, threatens the stability of the region very seriously.
The state of Jammu & Kashmir when it joined India in October 1947, India granted it a large percentage of political autonomy which included a separate constitution and its own flag.
The western regions of the state of Jammu & Kashmir, Azad Kashmir and its northernmost Gilgit-Baltistan belongs in Pakistan that have delivered full autonomy, while the easternmost Aksai Chin areas bordering Tibet are held by China.
The central part and the southern part of the state of Jammu & Kashmir held from India. India claims all other parts of the Jammu & Kashmir and that is why it is confronted with both Pakistan and China.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis-liberalglobe.com
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The causes that led the Indian government to take this decision
The Government of India, and in particular the government of Narendra Modi, on 5 August decided to repeal Article 370 of the Constitution which had been voted on in 1949 and according to which the part of the state of Jammu & Kashmir, which was under the India’s possession, allowed him to have his own constitution, flag and right to make decisions on all political and social issues, except in matters for defence, foreign policy, and communications that India has decided exclusively.
With the complete repeal of Article 370, India essentially decides on the full political integration of the land Jammu & Kashmir which belonged to it, with the rest of India, and since it would now be applicable to this region the Indian Constitution and its political administration would belong to India.
In this decision taken by the head of the Nationalist Hindu Party (BJP-Bhartiya Janata) and Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, succeeds in fully satisfying the nationalist sentiments and aspirations of his party supporters and voters-Hindu.
The Hindu strongly believe that the recent political concessions that were in force in the state of Jammu & Kashmir encouraged its inhabitants, because of their Muslim majority, to assert their independence and to break out from the India possession seeking their attachment to Pakistan and making the inhabitants of Jammu & Kashmir to believe that they are different from the Indians.
At the same time, this decision by the government of India is essentially a gesture of political demonstration within India and as the winning results of the elections in India that brought the BJP to the government are still fresh.
In the fact that this decision of the Modi government was taken without hindrance-reactions from the Indian opposition, it is because the influence of the Congressional party of Nehru is constantly tending to decrease in the Indian society, giving the opportunity to BJP to become today the main expressor of Hindu nationalism.
One day prior to the announcement of the decision repealing Article 370, India was instructed to arrest all the political executives of the Jammu & Kashmir, while interrupting the provision of internet and telephony and imposing a full prohibition on public gatherings as well as military law.
One week before all this was implemented, the Modi government decided to send to the Jammu & Kashmir 30000 soldiers, while after the announcement of the decision it was decided to be sent and other 8000 soldiers and despite the fact that the UN resolutions (1948) require the entire region of Jammu & Kashmir belonging to all three countries (India, Pakistan, China) to be fully demilitarized.
In addition to all this, we should not miss the fact of the gradual withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the concern of India that Pakistan’s geopolitical position will be strengthened by the US and always at the expense of India, which it may have been another cause of India’s decision to abolish the autonomy of the Jammu & Kashmir.
The possible reactions of neighbouring countries
Given the Muslim majority of the population of Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan has always had the motive and its own reasons for acting as guarantor and protector of the rights of the Muslim population living in the state of Jammu & Kashmir which belongs to India.
The fact that this region has so far become the cause of two wars between India and Pakistan has shown us the importance which has for Pakistan this region.
So, given that Pakistan’s first reaction to the specific decision of India to suppress Article 370 was to declare that it promises to exercise all possible options at its disposal, it is likely to mean, among other things, the provision of logistical and financial assistance to rebel-tzichantist groups which are acting independently in the state of Jammu & Kashmir, with a view to the long-term sabotage of Indian troops in the name of Independence of the Jammu & Kashmir.
In such an undesirable scenario, the gradual increase in any war-related action between these rebel-tzichantist groups and the Indian army will give Pakistan an opportunity to engage in a new war confrontation with India and given that the two countries have a nuclear arsenal.
On the other hand, China that has in its possession a part of the Jammu & Kashmir, which is claimed by India, will not be involved in any future conflict considering that the issue of abolishing Jammu & Kashmir ‘s political autonomy is purely domestic issue of India.
Perhaps this neutral attitude of China is based on the similarities that the Jammu & Kashmir issue can have with the issues of Tibet and Xinjiang equally which both are under the command and control of China.
But the issue that arises for the future is whether the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi will continue this ‘expansive’ policy towards the Muslim populations living in India in order to satisfy his voters, disregarding the imperative and highly pressing social problems of hunger and poverty that plague the majority of the Indian population and require the immediate implementation of successful economic reforms in order to be resolved.
Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
