The recent decision of the Constitutional Court of Poland to rule that certain articles of the EU treaties are incompatible with the Polish Constitution increases the likelihood that Poland will leave the EU through the Brexit process. Given that European law is above any national law of a member state, Poland has no place in the EU.
The decision of the Constitutional Court of Poland will also have political support as Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warmly welcomed the decision. The ruling Conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) has been embroiled in a series of disputes with Brussels over issues ranging from judicial reform and press freedom to gay rights.
The Depth of the Poland-EU Conflict
The crucial issue, which in practice is constantly at stake and creates tensions between the EU and Poland, but also between the EU and other Eastern European member states that joined the EU in 2004, is that they no longer receive financial assistance in 2024 and now these Member States should contribute to the Community budget. In addition, Poland will have to abide by the agreement on the national issue for Poland, which is the closure of lignite mines by 2049.
Poland has been greatly disturbed by the fact that Germany and Russia are cooperating perfectly in Nord Stream 2, having Germany put its own interests above all and above all the interests of Poland. Seeing Poland, in 1939, repeat itself but in a different form. In practice, Poland has entered an exit path from the EU according to the British model and will not be the only member state, because Hungary is sure to follow.
Poland and its relationship with the EU
What Poland was looking for when it entered the EU was a safe haven, which would offer it political support and abundant resources to grow. This has been achieved and can be seen from the following figures:
• EU resources channeled to Poland from 2004 to date are EUR 127 billion.
• In 2004 the average income of Polish citizens was 45% of the corresponding income of an EU citizen.
• Today the corresponding figure is 70%. 80% of Polish exports go to EU member states. 58% of Poland’s economy imports come from EU member states.
• Two million Poles work in EU member states.
• Poland’s economy ranks 22nd position among the world economies and is dependent on the EU.
• The European funds that Poland will receive from the European Recovery Fund for the effects of the pandemic are 139 billion euros in total, with only 34 billion euros of that being loans.
Poland outside the European Union will see its GDP plummet, which will create great social tensions. It is difficult for the EU to help it in the event of its exit. The Polish government prefers an EU with loose ties rather than a strong federation with a common economic, fiscal, defense and foreign policy respectively.
Geopolitically, both Britain and the United States are determined to support Poland against Russia. On the other hand, the EU and especially France will be relieved with the exit of Poland and Hungary because these are mainly the two member states, which together with Germany react to the creation of Joiint EU Armed Forces, a project led by France within the EU.
What will the EU do in case of Polexit
Poland is not going to back down and change the decision of its constitutional court. The question is whether the EU will accept Poland’s guerrillas, and given how they will cope with another Polexit like Brexit in such a short time.
In our opinion, the EU is not afraid of Poland leaving because the size of Poland’s economy is negligible and the one who will lose in such a case is Poland. It seems that the EU is determined to teach Poland a hard lesson, for example to the other member states.
It will first impose harsh financial sanctions and in addition legal sanctions that will reach the point of abstention. The last issue they want to address in Brussels is a new strong climate of internal controversy, which will reinforce the image of a loose confederation of member states, without any geopolitical power.
