The Turkish presidency launched a fierce attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the wake of the trilateral summit between Greece, Cyprus and Israel in Jerusalem, with Ankara raising its tone dangerously and openly accusing Tel Aviv of “genocide” and “destabilizing the region”.
Behind the rhetorical sharpness, the real background of the Turkish reaction is not only the Trilateral Summit.
Ankara’s Syrian “impasse”
The developments in Syria play a decisive role in Turkey’s irritation. About a year ago, Ankara believed that the fall of the Assad regime would allow it to establish a military presence, develop weapons systems and acquire – indirectly – a “border” with Israel.
Israel, however, does not seem to have any intention of replacing Iranian influence in Syria with Turkish influence. On the contrary, it has proceeded to systematically destroy weapons systems deployed in the Damascus area and more broadly on Syrian territory, while about three weeks ago it reportedly captured Turkish soldiers during an operation in the Syrian capital.
Israel’s strategic goal is to keep Syria essentially disarmed, which it has – so far – succeeded in doing. And this is precisely what causes the deepest concern in Ankara: a clear strategic weakness vis-à-vis Israel.
Despite the high-pitched tones, the possibility of a military conflict between Turkey and Israel is considered practically non-existent. Turkey – diplomatic sources note – is a member of NATO and cannot be involved in a military conflict with a country that is a close partner of the Alliance, as this would immediately activate NATO processes.
Moreover, Ankara knows that it currently has no room for high-intensity incidents. On the contrary, it seeks to appear “cooperative” towards the US, hoping for a – albeit difficult – rapprochement on the F-35 program. At the same time, it is interested in American engines for the KAAN fighter and in participation in European defense financing tools, from which it has already been excluded, such as the SAFE program.
In this light, Ankara’s current attacks are expected to be limited to the level of rhetoric.
The trilateral cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, however, functions as a multiplier of Turkish annoyance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched direct barbs, declaring that “none of this binds us,” questioning agreements and political messages emitted by the group.
It is recalled that Benjamin Netanyahu sent a clear message of deterrence during his speech at the Trilateral Summit in Jerusalem, without naming Turkey: “To those who fantasize about re-establishing empires, I say forget it.”
Eyes on Washington
Athens and Nicosia are closely monitoring developments, with their eyes also on the Netanyahu-Trump meeting at Mar-a-Lago. The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) is being touted as the “vehicle” to attract American attention, but it is clear that Turkey will also be a key topic of discussion.
In any case, the tension sparked by the Trilateral Summit confirms that this is not a typical diplomatic meeting. This is a scheme that affects the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean – and this is precisely what most bothers Ankara.
