Russia’s ambition to strengthen its international political position and cover part of the territory it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union is manifested in Ukraine.
The bankruptcy of Soviet communism led to the creation of 15 new independent states in a matter of days, while 25 million Russians were suddenly found abroad, with 8 million of them in Ukraine.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to a period of Moscow’s international political humiliation, as most Western leaders concluded that Russia would be relegated to the category of a major regional power without global influence, such as the Soviet Union.
The attempt to control strategic parts of the Russian economy and the constant expansion of NATO to the east were the hallmarks of the era. The Russian reaction came with Putin’s ousting the leadership. It began to assemble the broken pieces of post-Soviet Russia, beginning with its extremely bloody and effective confrontation with the Chechen separatists.
Since 2007, in a speech to the Munich Security Conference, Putin has warned the West of a drastic shift in Russian strategy from defense to attack.
In 2008 we had a Russian show of force in Georgia, with the country losing 20% of its territory to Russian-speaking separatists. In 2014, we had a show of strength from Russia to the detriment of Ukraine, which made a spectacular pro-European turn. Russian-speaking separatists occupied the eastern part of Donbass, which was one of the most developed industrial areas in the country. At the same time, Russia secured control of Crimea, and after a referendum – in which 85% voted in favor of union with Russia – responded to the request.
Putin did not limit himself to successes in Georgia and Ukraine. Russia’s military intervention saved the Assad regime from collapse and ensured a permanent Russian military presence in Syria. The Russians did not stay there. They control Libya through the east of Haftar and the Libyan oil pipelines. They sent Wagner’s mercenaries to sub-Saharan Africa to offer “security” to their regimes, replacing, to some extent, the French. They also undertook to stabilize the regime in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in exchange for financial compensation. Even the Azeris’ victory over the Armenians in the new confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh, Putin used it to strengthen Russia’s military presence in the South Caucasus.
Therefore, in Ukraine, Putin’s doctrine is once again applied, according to which Russia responds vigorously to what it perceives as an attempt at NATO encirclement and claims a global political, military role, despite the fact that its economy does not allow it to have superpower characteristics such as the US and China.
Strengthening Russia’s role and ambitions does not mean that it will invade Ukraine, but it does lead to the claim of a new “security” architecture in Europe.
The US dynamic
Russia’s dynamic to aggressive stance complements, on the other hand, the dynamism displayed by the US.
US officials have warned that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is high and that there will be international financial sanctions that will put the Putin regime in a difficult position.
Americans often fall short in their analysis of international politics, most recently the express collapse of their pro-government government in Afghanistan.
Many in Europe wonder if the Russian threat is as great as Washington describes it or if it is magnified by the Americans in their attempt to impose NATO discipline on Europeans.
President Biden opposes the operation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, arguing that it would increase Germany’s energy dependence on Russia, downgrade Ukraine’s role in so-called pipeline diplomacy, and facilitate the financing of its expansionist strategy. Putin.
Washington also opposes French proposals to substantially strengthen Europe’s defense and promote a European strategy of autonomy vis-.-Vis the United States.
In Biden’s view, as in Trump’s, China’s main strategic opponent is China. The rivalry with Russia over Ukraine must be addressed in terms of strengthening NATO discipline, so that the United States can then line up the economic and political forces needed to limit Chinese influence.
This is an extremely complex exercise of strategy, which can have the opposite of the intended results.
Europeans do not want a frontal confrontation with China, according to American standards. In addition, they are in favor of dialogue with Russia, in order to find compromise solutions that will lead to de-escalation. This was the message that President Macron wanted to send with his contacts with Putin in Moscow and with Zelensky in Kiev.
Macron is active in believing that, after Merkel’s departure from politics, he is the European leader with the greatest international influence. In addition, he wants to play the role of Putin’s interlocutor, capable of helping to de-escalate tensions in the run-up to the April presidential election.
In the EU However, there are also “tough” people, such as Poles, Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians, who see Russia as a great and constant threat. They believe that only the United States can offer effective political and military guarantees, and therefore oppose the idea of EU strategic autonomy.
It is clear, then, that the US will continue to have a dynamic stance towards Russia on the issue of Ukraine and will not easily accept differentiation from Germany, France and other EU member states.
The Chinese Wedge
Crisis management in Ukraine is becoming more complex due to the strengthening of China’s role.
Putin went to Beijing for the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, thus limiting the importance of the diplomatic boycott of the Games, promoted by the USA. He took the opportunity to denounce, together with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the stance of the United States and other powers that do not take into account Russia’s well-understood security needs. Earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that “Russia’s reasonable security concerns need to be taken seriously and addressed.”
The more the US puts pressure on Russia, the more likely it is that Russia will turn to China in search of a strong supporter, and thus further strengthen China’s comparative position vis-.-Vis the US and its allies. It is noteworthy that in the period 2013-2021, China’s share of Russia’s foreign trade almost doubled to 20%.
With the economic center of gravity of the modern world shifting to the Indian and Pacific regions, especially in China’s favor, putting pressure on Russia – especially in the economic sector by imposing sanctions – may prove counterproductive.
The EU spectator on the Geopolitical Chessboard
The crisis in Ukraine is becoming more important because of the green transition strategy implemented by the EU.
Serious problems are emerging in terms of energy costs and the emergence of natural gas as the dominant transitional fuel, until Renewable Energy Sources (RES) dominate.
The great dependence of the EU strengthens Moscow’s negotiating position, which pushes for the immediate operation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
The Americans are also using the crisis in Ukraine to advance their own energy goals. With the support of Poland, the Baltic countries and of course Ukraine, they are pushing for less dependence on the Russian energy giants and an increase in US liquefied natural gas (LPG) sales, with the same method followed in Greece.
Washington is seeking a NATO energy alliance, which is also leading to improved relations with Turkey and the “freezing” of troubled plans to build the East Med gas pipeline.
However, it is quite difficult for the Americans to impose their policy on gas and energy issues, given the close German-Russian energy relations and the fact that the former Social Democrat German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, has become a senior member of the Gazette. and star in the formulation of the European strategy of the energy giants of Russia.
Energy is becoming more important for the development of the crisis in Ukraine and because of the failed forecasts of the European Central Bank (ECB) for the duration of the energy crisis and the inflationary pressures it causes.
The ECB’s initial forecast was for a temporary increase in energy costs and inflation. Developments, however, lead to the conclusion that expensive fuels and energy, as well as high inflation, will be with us for most of 2022. ECB President Christine Lagarde has begun to correct the Bank’s forecasts, resulting in to launch a gradual increase of key interest rates within 2022.
A curious situation has been created, with the US and the EU. to prepare sweeping economic sanctions against Russia in case its troops cross the border with Ukraine, while increasing the EU’s energy dependence. from Russia and strengthens Moscow’s negotiating position.
The general conclusion is that Ukraine, an issue with a strengthened European dimension, is largely determined by US-Russian rivalry over its influence in Europe, with China being the new protagonist in strategic matters, which affects situations.
Unfortunately, Europeans are also divided on this issue. Macron is trying to create the impression of effective European mediation, while the new German Chancellor, Olaf Solz, manages to go unnoticed during the EU crisis. and especially for Germany.
The anxious search for the EU for a common foreign and common defense policy, in order to have more effective crisis management like that of Ukraine, is not expected to lead to practical results.
The only thing that is certain is that the Ukrainian crisis will continue with constantly changing parameters in relation to its beginning in 2014.
