The US confrontation with China, which led the US to a concentration of its forces in Asia, created the need for the planet’s superpower to drastically reduce its presence in other parts of the world, such as the Middle East.
Reasons for the continuation of the representative US presence in the Middle East
The US, even with a reduced presence, will remain in the Middle East. Historical reasons dictate the US presence in this part of the world are:
1. Maintaining Israel’s power and security, while maintaining its qualitative military advantage over other Middle Eastern states.
2. The “Abraham Accords” ensure Israel’s peaceful coexistence with other Middle Eastern states that share a common enemy, Iran.
3. The US economy’s oil feeder, the Middle East, has ceased to be a pillar of US policy due to US self-sufficiency in fossil fuels and shale gas.
4. The threat of communism from the USSR has ceased to exist. But there is a possibility that part of the Middle East region will cling to China’s economic interests. China, because of the peculiar state capitalism that characterizes it, can not ideologically, like the USSR, cling to the peoples of the countries in its “chariot” except with its economic lures. In this case, “ideologically”, China is not dangerous, as was the USSR, which represented a completely different economic system, which was the enemy of capitalism.
These are the main geopolitical realities of the US presence in the region over the last seven years. Given the drastic withdrawal of the US, with the presence of more US representative states (Abraham Accords) in the region to safeguard US interests, it forms a new field of Forces that needs to be balanced.
The Covid-19 pandemic and how it changed the Middle East
When Iran became the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Middle East, intense rivalries between countries in the region were set aside. “It is time to put the armed conflict on a lowdown and focus together on the real struggle of our lives,” the UN Council said. The hostilities then stopped.
• The United Arab Emirates sent four planes loaded with medical aid to Iran.
• Gulf states have also sent medical aid to Iran.
• Qatar shipped 16 tonnes of medical equipment and supplies.
• Kuwait sent $10 million in humanitarian aid.
Appreciating these policies of its neighbors, Iran has managed to improve its relations with the United Arab Emirates and is ready for dialogue with Saudi Arabia. In addition, in the near future, both Iran and Saudi Arabia will re-establish diplomatic relations, with each country opening its own consulate in the other. Talks have been going on since April 2021.
Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have improved their relations with Qatar and appointed its ambassadors to Qatar following a three-year embargo that ended in early 2021.
Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime is backed by both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to end the country’s civil war.
Of course, the pandemic was the cause of a change in practice from the countries of the Middle East. But the real reason was the declining US presence in the Middle East, the uncertainty about the future of the US role on the planet, combined with the fact that most countries in the region saw that their interests were more in line with their co-operation, and given outgoing U.S. security umbrella in their area.
Given that for decades after the end of World War II, the Middle East Security architecture was based on US dependence on the region’s oil, while securing Israel’s military might, it was not possible for the countries of the region to be able to evaluate their interests independently of US interests.
The change of the USA
Recognizing now that the US National Security and Defense Strategy has shifted to a major concentration of forces to dominate the US over its competition with China in particular and secondarily with Russia, this indicates an early phase of strong US change.
The goal of the United States is to drastically reduce its military forces around the world and in the Middle East, with the ultimate goal of facilitating its military development in Africa and South America, to facilitate the growth of American forces in the Indian-Pacific Ocean, to deal with China.
This, for the traditional US allies, means that they must rely on their own forces. Despite the initial uncertainty, the 20 countries of the Middle East will now have to find a relationship on their own that will ensure peace and stability to serve the goals and interests of their countries.
