From a military point of view, Russia’s Achilles heel in its war with Ukraine is Transnistria, since it is geographically cut off from the rest of Russian territory, being in the west of Ukraine.
According to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine intends to carry out a similar provocative action with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in order to then, either individually or in cooperation with Moldova, attack to occupy it.
Alexey Arestovich, a former adviser to Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff, said that Ukraine is ready to occupy Transnistria in three days if Chisinau requests it.
“Moldova is a sovereign state and decides on its own from whom to ask for help. Only by decision of the Moldovan authorities can we help. We have a chance. It can be solved in three days,” he said.
According to Arestovich, there is already reason to send troops, after the presidents of Ukraine and Moldova accused Russia of destabilizing the situation in the region.
The day before, the Russian Ministry of Defense warned of the risk of the Ukrainian army invading Transnistria. On Ukraine’s border with the unrecognized republic, there is a significant build-up of personnel and military equipment, artillery deployment and an unprecedented increase in UAV flights.
At least three unmanned aerial vehicles were spotted on the border between Ukraine and unrecognized Transnistria. Two drones were at a relatively low height, and we can talk about small quadcopters, while another drone flew at a height of several kilometers. In the context of the expected armed conflict between Kyiv and Tiraspol, the current situation creates extremely serious tension.
At this time, it is known that drones operated in the area of the settlements of Domnitsa (Ukraine), Rybnitsa, Kolbasna and Stanislavka (Transnistria).
Among other things, the Armed Forces of Ukraine resorted to provocations and using bright searchlights tried to blind the border guards, moreover, a similar situation was observed almost in the same area of the border, which indicates that in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will be from this the direction.
At the moment, the situation in Transnistria is extremely tense, as the number of Ukrainian forces deployed on the border of the PMR and Ukraine significantly exceeds the combined strength of the Transnistrian army and Russian peacekeepers stationed here.
Transnistria, 60 percent of whose residents are Russians and Ukrainians, sought to secede from Moldova even before the collapse of the USSR, fearing that the republic would join Romania in a wave of nationalism.
In 1992, after an unsuccessful attempt by the Moldovan authorities to solve the problem by force, the region effectively became an area not controlled by Chisinau. Peace in the conflict zone is supported by joint peacekeeping forces, including the special group of Russian troops, the 14th Combined Arms Army, which was transferred to Russian jurisdiction after the collapse of the USSR.
