As soon as the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is held on October 16, a conflict in East Asia may appear very soon. Japan’s defenses are changing, and larger defense budgets and capability enhancements are on the way. Exactly when that will happen is unclear, though Japan’s prime minister and other officials typically note, “within five years.”
Japan’s defenses are changing, and larger defense budgets and capability enhancements are on the way. Exactly when that will happen is unclear, though Japan’s prime minister and other officials typically note, “within five years.” By Japanese standards, that’s lightning fast. However, the Chinese threat that has focused Japanese minds on national defense is perhaps coming at a much faster pace. Japan may indeed find itself in the position of having to fight with what it has, not what it would like to have.
The most important Congress of the CCP
This is the first CCP Congress since Mao Zedong that will cement the position of a Chinese leader who can lead China to war – and who likely will if current trends continue. Simply put, this CPC congress puts China on the road to war. These gatherings are always “clear seal” affairs, but this one appears to put Xi Jinping in power indefinitely – with no real restrictions. His internal opposition is marginalized, if not exhausted or imprisoned.
Xi is the first Chinese leader to combine the ability to go to war with the messianic desire to do so – if he cannot get what he wants through intimidation. He sees himself as a man of destiny (Heavenly Emperor) who will restore China to its rightful place in the world. The capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have developed to the point where the Communist Party leadership (and Xi in particular) believes that China can wage a short, sharp war (or perhaps even a long, sharp war) near the her border and to succeed.
China has spent the last 45 years or so growing economically and building up its military. It is recovering from the miserable Mao era. But now Xi Jinping is likely to roll the dice and see what he can get with force and intimidation.
However, as noted, wars are unpredictable. And at the very least, apart from heavy casualties, the war would cause China’s economy to take a huge hit as its foreign trade shrinks. So will its access to meaningful foreign exchange, as China becomes an outcast in the civilized world.
In China for the past 45 years there has been a sense that things will continue to improve. Those days may be coming to an end. Life will become much more difficult for most Chinese.
The US-China relationship and the rest of the world
Unless the United States, Japan, and other free nations simply go along and let China have its way, one expects the world to split into two main blocs: the free world and the unfree world.
It will be like the old Cold War era, but with real battles for some time. Global institutions will either collapse or become irrelevant – although it may not be a bad thing if free nations create their own institutions.
If Xi puts China on the warpath (even just against Taiwan), the US-China relationship will revert to what it was in 1950. Any kind of bloodshed involving US forces and/or US partners (such as Japan ) the relationship changes inexorably for the worse.
Apologists and appeasers in the United States (of which there are many) should crawl back into the woodwork while claiming, when asked, that they have always been “tough on China.” If the People’s Republic of China and Xi Jinping had continued their charm offensive of the 2000s, they probably would have taken everything they wanted without a fight.
As a result, in recent years, the United States – and even the Japanese and Europeans – have somewhat awakened to the threat of the DPRK and are beginning to take steps to defend themselves. Did they wake up soon enough? Probably not. But this is usually the case with democracies. An upcoming fight will be more difficult than it should be.
Some observers claim that once Xi consolidates power and control he will seek to improve relations with the United States – and that China will become less of a threat. Chances are, he sees his chance to push and will take it.
It continues to “add sanctions” to China’s economy and financial system and also exercises absolute control over the population through “zero Covid” crackdowns. Or, in fact, subjecting the public to hardship. China has stockpiled food and fuel. It is building coal-fired power plants (it has plenty of coal) at a breathtaking rate.
CPC officials were also ordered to sell theirs and their relatives’ belongings abroad and bring the cash back to China. And of course the PLA build-up continues unabated. It looks like Xi is opening the hatches and preparing for a battle.
US President Joe Biden’s administration appears to lack resolve, and Xi may agree with that assessment. He may simply be thinking, “The time is right.”
Japan and its change of attitude
So it will be to Tokyo’s advantage to take what it has defensively and make the most of it. In other words, to start with improving the operational capabilities of the Japan Self-Defense Forces. This does not require money or a lot of new hardware.
And after more than 60 years of co-training, it is certain that Japanese and American forces can fight together. This also requires little money or hardware. Indeed, Japan will have to emulate and expand what the US Maritime Self-Defense Force and Navy have quietly accomplished for several decades.
For Japanese and US leaders, a change in mindset is the main thing – and then getting down to business, and fast.
