From Libya to the South Caucasus, geopolitical developments are changing in a climate of deep liquidity that is causing swings in the “winners” and “losers” in the interests they represent.
The Geopolitical Axis of South-West and Central Asia
The core of the countries that make up this geopolitical axis is based on Islamic nationalism and fundamentalism but also on the deep relations of brotherhood and friendship between these three countries. These countries each play a role on their own and the three together form the core of this geopolitical axis. It is Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan that together represent the most absolute form of nationalist Islam.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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Photo by the website www.facebook.com
Given this core of countries that geographically links South-West Asia with the South Caucasus region and South Central Asia, it is certain that this geopolitical axis will influence the advance of geopolitical developments and international relations respectively in a region of the world whose beginnings start in Tunisia (principles of the Mediterranean Sea basin and North-West Africa), including the Black Sea basin (Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia) continues in the Middle East-Persian Gulf (Turkey-Qatar and perhaps in the future Iran) but also in the South Caucasus/Central Asia (Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan) and reaches the Pakistan-India border.
On this geopolitical axis Turkey assumes the role of aggressor-challenger and reviewer through its military support, Qatar has the role of treasury and economic donor of this axis, while Pakistan can provide available manpower from hardline Islamist-Jihadists and can offer its nuclear know-how in the future.
Qatar’s close alliance with Turkey is also the moral instigators of the Arab Spring movement, which is a wave of protests and protests that began in Tunisia (December 18, 2010) and spread like wildfire to overthrow the regimes that existed in the Arab world and North Africa.
The slogan of the protesters in the Arab world was Ash-sha’ab yurid isqat an-nizam which means the people want the regime to fall (الشعب يريد إسقاط النظام) which for the demonstrators, the regimes in their countries represented the “tyranny” of West.
The West, with the US as a front line, cannot see what lies behind this black veil (of the Islamic revolutionary movement).
The Arab Spring was designed and sparked by the most extreme representatives of Islamic fundamentalism located in the deep state apparatus of Qatar and Turkey.
The purpose of this Islamic revolution was, in addition to overthrowing the governments until then, to support all those forces in every Arab and Muslim country respectively that represented radical Islam in order to bring those dark forces to power and fully implement the Sharia Law.
Author: Ian Remsen, Source https:/en.wikipedia.org , licensed Public Domain
English: A map detailing the various levels of conflict in the West Asian and North African regions.
Government overthrown multiple times
Government overthrown
Civil war
Protests and governmental changes
Major protests
Minor protests
Other protests and militant action outside the Arab world
In part this goal was almost achieved by the rise to power of the “Muslim Brotherhood” in Egypt. Egypt is the key country that if controlled by these powers would be controlled by all Arab and Muslim countries in the Arab world and North Africa.
The fall of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed al-Morsi regime from the presidency of Egypt (2012) destroyed these plans of the geopolitical axis of Turkey and Qatar for full control of Arabs and Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa.
Remnants of this plan are the civil war in Libya, Syria, and Sudan where Turkey is trying with every force to control military operations and political developments in those countries.
Their great failure was on the front lines of Pakistan and India in the disputed Region of Kashmir and in the war operations to change its regime, without this meaning that they will not try it in the future.
The only net success of this geopolitical axis emerged with Azerbaijan’s victory in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh war, gaining back territory it had lost to Armenia in the war in the early 1990s.
This victory ensures the presence of Turkey and this geopolitical axis in the South Caucasus (read the analyses entitled «The Geopolitical benefits of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey from the Ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh» while Azerbaijan gains access to EU markets via Turkey and becomes Turkey’s main energy supplier and this geopolitical axis.
The next area of action of this geopolitical axis will be the Black Sea and in particular the Crimean region (read the analysis entitled «The Geopolitical Benefits Turkey Expects to Reap from the West Through the Armenia-Azerbaijan War in the Caucasus») and Eastern Ukraine, respectively.
Turkey, which is the key country and the main member of this geopolitical axis, is creating a second geopolitical axis and parallel to its existing one, which includes Poland, Ukraine, Turkey and Azerbaijan, moving against Russia in the above areas of geopolitical interest.
At the same time, in order to gain energy autonomy, Turkey is trying in every way to illegally seize the Exclusive Economic Zones of Cyprus and Greece respectively while seeking to simultaneously stop and fully control the transport of Israeli natural gas to the EU.
In this case, if Turkey’s plans are achieved, it is as if they accept their political and economic satelliteisation by Turkey, with implications for the EU’s energy dependence on both Russia and Turkey.
The geopolitical axis of the Mediterranean Sea countries as an awe rival to the upper Islamic geopolitical axis
The above facts and conclusions have alarmed the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and not only which have in turn led to a new coalition of countries including Israel, Cyprus (EU), Greece (EU), Egypt, France (EU) but also recently the United Arabic Emirates (UAE) showing that this geopolitical axis also goes beyond the borders of the Mediterranean Sea and reaches geographically the Persian Gulf.
core of Mediterranean Sea countries alliance
Photo by the website www.al-monitor.com
The key country in this alliance of Mediterranean Sea countries that will make a difference in terms of geostrategic depth and power is the annexation to their alliance of India.
India, with its political, economic, and military “size”, can “inactivate” both Pakistan and Azerbaijan respectively by cutting any potential depth gained by this geopolitical axis of Islamic fundamentalism.
The geopolitical axis that consists of the core of the Mediterranean Sea countries at some point and as long as the challenges continue from Turkey will pass to the “counterattack” against the key country of the axis of Islamic fundamentalism i.e. Turkey and after its members have adopted an agreement on terms such as those between the Balkan countries (Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria) against the Ottoman Empire in the First Balkan War (1912-1913).
The condition agreed at the time was that any of the above allies occupied territory from the Ottoman Empire, this immediately belonged to him. In the same way today, the battle will first be fought at sea and in the air and then Turkey will break into pieces as it did with Yugoslavia consisting of smaller and different nationalities.
The degree of difficulty in repeating history presents a remarkably high degree of difficulty since then the Ottoman Empire was defeated because it was forced to spread its forces on many different fronts without having reserves to strengthen them by having to take forces from one front and transfer it to another front. As a result, it has been forced to spread its forces without being able to maintain significant reserves.
Today, however, Turkey can provide endless reserve forces from the large population of fundamentalist Jihadists, from its hinterland and from Pakistan. In any case, these reserves can only be used in ground battles and not in naval and air battles that require endless sources of available maritime and air weapons systems respectively, which is not available on the Turkey-Qatar-Pakistan axis.
The Turkish “Blue Country” doctrine, which includes Turkey, Palestine, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria if implemented in practice, will cut the EU off from Africa and the Middle East, creating many problems because Turkey’s geopolitical axis will each time use the fluctuation of migration flows in the Mediterranean Sea to blackmail the EU.
Turkey-Qatar-Pakistan’s geopolitical axis is encouraged in its actions by the now introverted US policy of wanting to withdraw from any regional fronts that involve them in “silly” wars that cost them blood and money (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria).
On the other hand, Russia wants NATO to be dissolved in its South East wing, which includes Turkey in order to serve its interests in the Balkans, the Middle East and North Africa, and for these reasons it is taking a neutral stance towards Turkey which encourages it to take any illegal actions.
