Many believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal is to seize most of Lugansk and Donetsk, to declare victory by unilaterally ending hostilities and consolidating his own profits, which amount to about 20% of the Ukrainian territory. . This is where the strategy of the three European leaders, Emmanuel Macron, Mario Draghi and Olaf Sholz, seem to be based, who cultivate the prospect of an “honest compromise” and a “sustainable peace” with Vladimir Putin, recognizing most of his own interests. But this is not a realistic prospect, mainly for two reasons:
1. The first reason is Vladimir Putin himself. He has repeatedly shown in the past that temporary profit is not enough. In the case of Ukraine, profits are poor and certainly well below expectations. Moreover, if it fails to turn Ukraine into a vassal state, the real expansion of NATO into Finland and Sweden will make it a loser on the geopolitical chessboard. When the battlefield is over and the enormous cost of the adventure in which Russia is placed begins to be realized, many of his compatriots will ask him the account. For these reasons, a possible truce will be just the necessary break in view of the next round of Russian aggression.
2. The second reason is the Ukrainians themselves who are not going to accept the mutilation of their country. Having suffered enormous damage and having paid corresponding sacrifices and having acquired a new perception of their national identity, they in turn will seek to reorganize their forces for the next round. An example is: Operation “Storm” in 1995, where the modernized Croatian army attacked Serb separatists in Krajina and recaptured about 20% of its territory, ending a conflict that many considered “frozen”.
On the contrary, an immediate and clear solution must be sought by all means. The sooner the Ukrainians provide the solution, the faster and more efficient the solution will be for Europe. Instead of cultivating the illusion of an inappropriate “honest compromise” and a false “sustainable Peace”, European leaders must accept that the coming economic crisis is inevitable and that it will be painful. They need to prepare their citizens for this, while taking advantage of the great opportunities that will arise from it in the fields of defense and energy. The opposite is tantamount to suicide.
