Trump made it clear that “time is running out” for Iran, warning that if Tehran does not come back to the table with a significantly better offer, “it will be hurt a lot worse” and that “they better move fast, otherwise they will have nothing left.”
This strategy constitutes a pure “bomb negotiation,” where Iran is being asked to choose between real concessions or the resumption of military action against it. Trump appears impatient, seeking a deal exclusively on his own terms, at a time when domestic pressures in the United States, such as inflation and high energy prices, make reaching a solution extremely urgent.
Why have President Trump and his advisors been led to this impasse?
It was supposed to be a lightning war and within a few days a new government friendly to Israel and the US would be in power in Tehran, with Iranians protesting in the streets and cheering for “freedom” and “democracy”, while the son of the last Shah Reza Pahlavi would take over the reins of the country to lead it, like his father, in irons to the American-Zionist camp. At least that’s how Netanyahu liked Trump and led him on this adventure. But Iran was well prepared for this attack and so the American-Zionist scenario developed completely differently.
For 47 years, Iran has been tormented by Western sanctions and embargoes. According to Western propaganda for 47 years, Iran is only a few days away from completing its nuclear bomb. Yes, it could be true, but Tehran sincerely claims that it does not want this weapon. This is justified by the argument that Iran has signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but why do neither the US nor Israel believe Tehran’s contractually guaranteed assurances? The answer is simple. Neither Israel nor the US has ever honored the treaties they sign. How can they believe that Iran will honor its commitment without recognizing that they are the only states on earth whose treaty obligations are not even worth the paper they are written on?
Sanctions and the Iranians’ Admirable Achievements
Despite all the sanctions, the Iranians’ achievements are admirable. Iran has a very high level of education and excellent scientists in its universities. In this way, it has been possible to reach a level in the military sector that is at least equivalent to that of the West. In addition, it has proven to be on a high moral level. It has not attacked anyone for centuries and even in its defensive strikes it tries not to hit civilians. Tehran’s military advantage lies in the fact that it has a defensive army that is not designed for attack like the US army.
In the three months of war, US military bases in the Emirates have been destroyed to the point of being unusable. Radar systems worth billions of dollars are almost completely disabled and cannot be replaced in a short time. On the one hand, because the production of spare parts will take years, and on the other hand, because Tehran has made sea transport through the Strait of Hormuz impossible.
Moreover, Iran has proven itself capable of destroying American ships in its area, including aircraft carriers. This is why the US withdrew its warships from the operational range of Iranian missiles, more than 1,000 kilometers from Iran. But this makes it difficult to use fighters on aircraft carriers. Every mission to Iran must be accompanied by aerial refueling aircraft, we note that every refueling maneuver is a critical moment. The aerial tankers themselves are also easy prey. If the fighter aircraft cannot refuel, it may be able to reach Isfahan, but not back to its aircraft carrier. It would then have to make landfall in the Indian Ocean, because the bases in the Persian Gulf are no longer available.
The unfavorable military position of the US in the war with Iran
The US is in a military disadvantage, so Trump declared a two-week ceasefire. Trump believed that two weeks would be enough to resupply his troops with ammunition. The warehouses were empty. So were the defensive ammunition against drones and missiles. If the war had not been stopped, the American ships would have been sitting ducks. But the supply did not work that way, so Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, while preparing public opinion for a peace agreement that was supposed to advance American-Israeli interests in the region.
Historically, it is commonly accepted that when countries are at war, this war usually ends with a complete victory for one side. This is not the case for the USA, because this large island between the Atlantic and the Pacific cannot be approached militarily by the countries under attack. For about 150 years, the USA has only waged asymmetric wars. Their country has never been threatened or even affected by the actual devastation of war. While the US military destroys structures, production capacities and homes in the countries under attack, the US industry and infrastructure remain unaffected and are able to continue producing weapons without interruption, while the capacity of the country under attack is destroyed piece by piece.
This happened in the First World War against Germany, in the Second World War and subsequently in all the countries that were considered undesirable by the American-Zionist complex. We will never be able to know how these countries would have developed if it were not for the sanctions imposed by the US, which violate international law. This is also an asymmetric war, because the countries concerned cannot defend themselves against it. Even the entire values-based West did not dare to resist these US crimes. Cuba has been under US sanctions for more than 60 years, and now Trump is taking things to the extreme. The “values” of the West are silent on the matter.
Could we say that Iran won this war?
Since World War II, the US has not won a single war against a relatively capable opponent. They inflicted profound devastation in all cases, but once they intervened with ground troops, real successes were no longer possible. The aftermath of the Vietnam War inaugurated the US foreign trade deficit and the printing of money without consideration began. The US dollar had to be delinked from the value of gold. But even this has not seriously damaged the US structure. Apart from tens of thousands of dead men, the country remained intact, while the invaded countries were busy for years repairing the devastation caused by the US military.
With the recent Israeli-US war against Iran, the situation has changed a little. Israel itself has suffered serious damage internally, and Iran has, as mentioned above, rendered US military bases in the Persian Gulf largely useless. In this sense, both Israel and the US have suffered serious damage to their facilities for the first time. However, US territory has remained unaffected by this. We could say that Iran won this war. But what value can that have? Israel has not stopped the killing of Palestinians in Lebanon, the bombing continues apace, and Gaza also continues to mourn the dead and wounded. The US itself observes the ceasefire as it pleases. This is in terms of the importance of treaties or agreements with the US or Israel.
Just as England once did, the US has a purely offensive army. Why do they need aircraft carrier formations, landing craft masses, and long-range bombers? For US “defense,” a little Coast Guard protection would suffice in addition to a second-strike nuclear capability. No one is going to attack the US. Pearl Harbor? This war with Japan was also created by Washington by driving Japan into war with naval blockades, sanctions, and embargoes. But even the attack on Pearl Harbor was not an attack on the US. Hawaii was not a US state at the time. It had been occupied by the US. Just like the Philippines and other islands in the China Sea. What was the US military doing there anyway?
Iran can inflict serious damage on the American military machine in the Persian Gulf, but US territory remains unaffected. As long as this is the case, and it will probably always be the case, Iran cannot win a war with the US, in the classical sense. No matter how much Tehran humiliates the US military, imposes a ceasefire, the US will never back down. With an arms industry that is unaffected in its operation, it is only a matter of time before Washington finds itself in a position to launch the next attack again.
The uninfluenced US and a world in energy crisis
With the American-Israeli invasion of Iran, the whole world has been plunged into an energy crisis. Again, the US itself is not affected. On the contrary, they can now sell their oil and gas at a high price and, moreover, they have the audacity to dictate who is allowed to buy energy from Russia. Is there anything more arrogant, imperialistic, colonial? And in the meantime, they steal foreign ships and plunder their cargo, with Trump being proud of it. The US has become a rogue pirate state, a large pirate island, just like Israel, which has completely destroyed Gaza and is now heading towards Lebanon. This is also asymmetrical, because neither Lebanon nor Gaza have fighter jets or other offensive weapons. They cannot defend themselves against murderous attacks, let alone carry out effective counterattacks on Israel.
As a result of all of the above, Iran, exercising its legitimate territorial rights, will continue to fully control the flow of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future and will not, under any circumstances, hand over its enriched uranium stockpiles to the United States.
