The US has been in a constant confrontation with Russia since 2022, seeking not only to contain but also to completely weaken Russian power. All US efforts so far have been aimed at economic pressure, political destabilization and military defeat of Moscow in Ukraine. However, the course of the war in Ukraine and the consequences of a possible defeat of Ukraine are becoming increasingly acute in the West.
The day after a Russian victory
The US government is not going to passively accept such a development. On the contrary, the US will seek to create “a new problem” for Russia, in order to force it to spend resources and attention on other hotbeds of tension. Every great power needs a “constraining counterweight”. India has Pakistan, China has India. Russia after Ukraine may not have anything similar. The US will find a way to create this constraint.
Where could the next front open?
Possible areas of tension that could concern Moscow include:
- Transnistria: The “thaw” of the conflict would force Russia to take immediate and demanding measures.
- Baltic – Kaliningrad: A blockade of access to the Baltic would cause a sharp crisis with the EU.
- South Caucasus and Central Asia: Areas particularly sensitive to geopolitical interventions.
- Arctic: New areas of strategic competition due to energy and maritime interests.
Military conflict with direct involvement of states remains unlikely, however conflicts involving Russian speakers or Russian citizens or through representatives are entirely possible.
The West in a Strategic Crisis – The US and Europe on Different Trajectories
The possible defeat of Ukraine is a multifaceted blow to the West. Europe, from this development, will receive the most serious blow: politically, ideologically and strategically. The unity of the EU will be put to the test, especially as many European governments have invested political capital in the “inevitable defeat” of Russia.
Donald Trump’s case, in contrast, is not expected to be significantly affected, as “this is not his war”. Trump could even pursue a more pragmatic relationship with Russia, aiming for economic benefits, choosing a policy of “selective pressure”. However, if peace in Ukraine does not work, there will be attempts to hinder Russian interests in other areas.
The Spectre of a “Second Front”
The more the West realizes the defeat in Ukraine, the greater the risk of a second front emerging. Points of particular concern: Moldova – Transnistria, the Baltic countries with their increased Russophobic rhetoric, Finland, which is adopting an increasingly harsh militaristic stance
The West has “accepted defeat” in Ukraine, but seeks to turn it into a “politically painless” one for its own audiences. The basic characteristics of the emerging world are already becoming visible. The hitherto unified West is proving to be heterogeneous, with divergent interests and different approaches to power.
The era of absolute Western dominance seems to have passed, which is causing nervousness in both the US and Europe. The only thing that is certain is that Russia faces a new period of intense pressure – even if it wins the Ukrainian conflict. Great power competition will return to the global scene, fiercer and more unpredictable than ever.
