Hamas will come out militarily destroyed by the war, while politically it will not be able to play a significant role in the Palestinian after it, where the moderate Palestinian leaders will recover, since they will be the only ones accepted by the US-EU-Israel to find a political solution.
The surprise attack by Hamas and its special characteristics
It all started unexpectedly with the launch of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation by the terrorist Palestinian organization Hamas, which with a barrage of 5000 rockets hit Israeli cities and villages in the early hours of the morning, while at the same time fighters crossed its borders, using traditional but and standard methods of infiltration, such as using motorized planes, attacking Israeli outposts and military units on the border, while they also attempted to attack by sea.
At the same time, a small number of drones were used by Hamas. At the same time, the fighters of the terrorist organization Hamas fired indiscriminately at the Israeli villages-settlements they invaded, causing the death and injury of hundreds of Israeli citizens, while they also captured Israeli citizens and soldiers, in several cases separating men from women, transporting them in trucks with violence in the Gaza Strip, as hostages.
The aim of Hamas is to exchange the Israeli hostages with its fighters held by the Israeli authorities and to increase the pressure on the respective Israeli government from the common opinion of the Israeli citizens.
The special characteristics of the new attack by Hamas
1. Surprise
- For several days before the surprise attack by Hamas, there was absolute calm in relation to Israel, “sleeping” its security authorities, resulting in the complete relaxation of surveillance measures, which led to the complete surprise of the IDF (Israeli Armed Forces).
- The Hamas attack occurred during “Simchat Torah”, which falls towards the end of the week-long Jewish holiday known as “Sukkot” or the Feast of Tabernacles, further relaxing the Israelis, resulting in their initial surprise.
- Finally, Hamas used motorized planes to carry out its fighters’ vertical overflight-infiltration into Israeli territory, which constitutes innovation-ingenuity, but also thorough preparation, including prior training and logistical support, which was probably provided by Hezbollah and Iran, its mortal enemies Israel.
- We find it extremely unlikely that due to the proximity to Israel and the topography of the Gaza Strip, the training of Hamas fighters in motorized aircraft took place there, under the “noses” of the Israelis. Most likely this was done in South Lebanon by Hezbollah , or in Iran.
2. Thorough preparation- intensity of attack
- The launch of 5000 rockets by Hamas in the first hours of the attack indicates thorough preparation, extreme secrecy, but also its particular severity.
- The oversaturation of Israel’s National Airspace with such a huge volume of rocket-missiles in such a short period of time suddenly resulted in even the country’s state-of-the-art anti-aircraft means being unable to intercept all of Hamas’s missiles, resulting in some of them to blindly strike urban areas in southern Israel, causing civilian death-injury and destruction of civilian targets.
3. Kidnapping-Hostage of Israeli citizen-soldiers
- The Hamas attack had another characteristic, which is the kidnapping-hostage of Israeli civilians on a large scale, which has never been seen before, with the exception of the kidnapping of individual Israeli soldiers from advanced military posts in southern Lebanon by Hezbollah.
- The purpose of this shameful tactic of Hamas fighters is to exchange Israeli hostages with fighters of the terrorist organization held by the Israeli authorities.
The political end of Hamas for the Palestinian Issue is coming
However, the above action justice raised a storm of reactions, since it constitutes a war crime, in the USA-EU which condemned the shameful act of Hamas. Biden-Ursula von der Leyen, with their messages, stand by Israel.
Our assessment is that the above move constitutes a huge mistake of strategic importance for Hamas and its future as a body of Palestinian authority, since with its act it fully justifies its designation as a terrorist organization by the US-EU.
Therefore, when the war with Hamas ends, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said, it will not be able to continue participating in the subsequent political efforts to resolve the Palestinian issue, since Israel will propose it as a prerequisite, due to the murder and hostage taking of hundreds of citizens of (please also read the analysis titled “Hamas execute civilians inside Israel to destroy the Peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia“).
Biden’s message to Hezbollah-Iran
In his speech, US President Biden said that “the US stands by Israel, which has the right to defend itself and its people. Perfect. US support for Israel’s security is a rock, immovable and unshakable. There is no justification for such a terrorist attack and the US will always have Israel’s support
Finally, he meaningfully added “this is not the time for any rival party to Israel to take advantage of these attacks.”
In general, Biden warned that Iran and Hezbollah should not take any action against Israel, since the US will closely monitor the developments and intervene drastically.
The above position dissipates any Hamas expectations of a military attack against Israel by Hezbollah and Iran, unless Tehran is suicidal.
The difference of war from a military operation
After the initial surprise suffered by the IDF, it launched “Operation Iron Swords” against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, pounding its targets mercilessly with airstrikes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressing the citizens of his country that “Israel is in a war it will win.” At the same time, he called on the opposition to stand against his side, while 100,000 reserve Israeli soldiers were immediately mobilized.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallad stated that “Hamas made a grave mistake this morning and launched a war against the State of Israel. IDF troops are fighting against the enemy in every location. I call on all citizens of Israel to follow the safety instructions. The state of Israel will win this war.”
The use of the word war by the Israelis, the Prime Minister and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and not a military operation, indicates that Israel will not confront Hamas in the context of a military operation with specific objectives-limited in scope and degree, but that the military operations will have the extent , objectives and Military Objective Purpose (MOP) of a generalized conflict.
Israel’s plan
In general, Israel will conduct operations to repel the Hamas invaders, restore its National territory by recapturing the 7 villages occupied by the terrorist organization.
It will then carry out a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, occupying its territories, while destroying in addition to military targets and infrastructure in it, setting it back decades in terms of organization and livelihood.
Of course the primary objective of the IDF will be to locate and eliminate Hamas from its leadership, while until the war is over there is no question on Israel’s part of any discussion about its hostage-taking citizen-soldiers that includes the release of imprisoned Hamas fighters from this.
Our Assesment
Our assessment is that the end of the war and its painful consequences for the Palestinian people will cause the Palestinians to turn inward.
Hamas will come out militarily destroyed by the war, while politically it will not be able to play a significant role in the Palestinian after it, where the moderate Palestinian leaders will recover, since they will be the only ones accepted by the US-EU-Israel to find a political solution.
