It is extremely unlikely, in the opinion of The Liberal Globe, that an agreement will be concluded between Washington and Moscow that would be contrary to Beijing’s interests. However, we believe that the United States will lift the sanctions, because sanctions against Russia have cost American companies more than 300 billion dollars. This, in turn, will have a serious impact on US-EU relations.
Surely, in such a case, it will be a subtle diplomatic signal to China about Moscow’s readiness for a multidimensional approach.
Russia, even in the conditions of the war with Ukraine, retained a certain degree of dignity, memory and ability to draw conclusions.
During the war with Ukraine:
1. Difficulties were experienced in issuing Russian bonds in yuan.
2. There was a willingness of Chinese partners to sell modern mechanical equipment to Russia.
3. The idea of replacing Venezuelan oil with Russian oil did not work, because the Chinese preferred to sign a strategic energy cooperation agreement with Canadian Prime Minister Carney and buy Canadian oil at full price (instead of buying more Russian oil and slightly reducing the required discount).
4. Russia is developing cooperation within the BRICS and promoting dedollarization.
The multidimensional approach
After all, the example of the Chinese partners shows that a multidimensional approach is more beneficial than an architecture of principles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin certainly understands that monetary unions without sufficient economic convergence carry significant risks and will cause more problems than they solve.
And this is given that the dollar system remains strong, despite the cracks – the American currency participates in almost 90% of global transactions in the foreign exchange market and in about half of international payments (For more analysis on this topic, please read the article entitled “The EU will implement the Draghi Report for competitiveness, while Russia returns to the Dollar Payment System“).
Moscow also knows that China will not take on the burdens of issuing a reserve currency – deep markets, large liquidity, trade deficits – and risk losing its competitive advantage.
Preparing for the day after Ukraine, Russia will have to take into account monetary data – and the opportunity for significant agreements with Trump is not something that can be passed up by idle money.
The reasoning is simple: sooner or later, money trumps political ideals and statements – this is what pragmatism demands from a country that has been waging a proxy war with NATO for four years. But geopolitics often prevails over pure logic.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on February 19 extended sanctions against Russia for a year. He cited the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as the reason.
Earlier it became known that China sharply reduced the supply of goods to Russia. The fact that prices for imported goods for the Russian military-industrial sector increased by almost 90% due to China, while in other countries they increased by only 9%, is particularly significant.
