The 56th International Security Conference (2020 Munich Security Conference) held in Munich from 14 February to 16 February 2020 highlighted the real rifts that exist in the Western camp. These rifts describe the situation that the West displays in the International Geopolitical scene with the new term West-lessness. In other words, West-lessness means weakening the West on the International stage.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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Rifts, existential dills and reactions within the West
The international backdrop that exists today and has led to the use of the term West-lessness can be illustrated by the existential divisions that afflict the Euro-Atlantic community and is characterised by Brexit- the rise of China and especially the time of current US President Donald Trump, who before the end of the year completes his first four years as US President with a high chance of being re-elected President for another four years.
And here lies the key that will determine whether to open the aeolian ascetic for the West and the West-lessness turned into West-dissolution. The key is the possible re-election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency, which, as French President Emmanuel Macron pointed out in 56th Munich Security Conference, a second dominance of Donald Trump in the US Presidency will inevitably be translated by the other western states as a strategic choice of the US, while putting the Euro-Atlantic bond and NATO’s very existence in a dire position.
On the other hand, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the Munich Conference on Security, also defined the framework of the new Euro-Atlantic ties between the US and European NATO members.
Pointing out in his speech that the American leadership defines as the new, common enemy, the rising China and any relations between the US and Europe within NATO will be determined from now on by whether Europeans are capable of contributing to the US as a China’ s response.
In this context, relations between the Western allies will move, which will inevitably bring great friction and deepening the cracks of suspicion among western member states.
The first reactions from Europeans to the new outlined framework of relations set by Michael Pompeo, US Secretary of State, came at the same conference by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier who scathingly scathingthed the Donald Trump slogan “Make America Great Again” because It inevitably leads to a path that will require more military equipping programs to achieve an ever-increasing degree of security and cooperation.
Emmanuel Macron’s vision for Europe
French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking at this conference, raised the key question on how and why the EU should have its own dominant European policy and not “crawl” behind US policy expressed through the adoption of all Euro-Atlantic policy by the EU.
In addition, the President of France, bearing in his mind that EU security is necessarily going through Russia, raised in his speech the issue that European policy on Russia should be differentiated from American influence before it can be autonomous and move forward.
This will be achieved, and as he pointed out in his speech, only by eliminating blind hostility towards Russia, so that Russia clings unto European interests and not being forced to ally itself with China to avoid the isolation of the West. Harming by this position, Russia, the European interests.
Of course, the French President knows that as long there is the open wound called Eastern Ukraine, it is very difficult to bridge any contradictions between the EU and Russia.
On the other hand, however, his vision of “strategic independence” of the EU in order to become the third geopolitical pole of power on the international stage, against the US and China, leads him to have to sit at the same table as Russia and Vladimir Putin and agree to everything.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which can fully know the geopolitical game on the planet and demonstrating political power by entering the 2016 US election, knows this position of Emmanuel Macron.
In other words, a common European security policy that is not characterised by prejudice sooner or later to be implemented over time should include Russia, enabling Russia to gradually disengage from the exclusive economic and trade dependency offered to it by China.
On the other hand, however, Russia does not forget that the French navy ships patrol the Black Sea, French troops are located via NATO in Northern and Eastern Europe and French-style missiles (along with corresponding US missiles and the UK) bombed the troops of Russia’s chosen President, President Assad, in Syria.
The dangers of Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy
The US effort to increasingly turn their nation’s forces towards the Pacific Ocean to halt the rising China is perfectly reasonable. The Pacific Ocean basin along with that of the Indian Ocean produces the most wealth as the most populous region on the planet and potential wealth in the future.
The longitudinal importance of the Pacific Ocean for the US is illustrated in the fact that most Americans of fallen and wounded war respectively appear in the battlefields of the Pacific Ocean.
The Donald Trump policy, which necessarily leads his European allies into a field of relations whose sign will be determined by how much each time Europeans will generously assist the US in dealing with China stronger, carries many risks. We will very briefly mention that:
1. If the Europeans are “exhausted” by this US attitude towards them, they will try to find a way and an alliance with Russia without closing the door to China.
2. Given that Russia, in an alliance with the EU and plus the fact that it has a broad scope of influence in the Middle East, will ensure in return for the EU’s seamless ‘energy flow’, along with securing its own energy contribution to the EU.
3. Russia will not disengage from its relationship with China so far, since China and its trade with Russia financially secure Russia and act as a hedge risk to any economic constraint Russia is experiencing today and in the future. Russia is equally valuable to China because it is Russia that acts as a guarantor of the implementation of the Chinese strategy for the control of Eurasia summarised in the plan «One belt, One road».
Based on the above scenarios, Russia will be the link between the EU and China by uniting Eurasia economically and geopolitically, where Berlin (EU) will become the “mind” designer and mentor in the Eurasia body.
On the other hand, Eurasia factories will be based in China in order to produce products for consumption from the largest population on the planet that will be living in the largest geographical part of the planet, Eurasia, with a high probability that Eurasia will control in the future the African continent and its populations by tying it up the African continent in the chariot of Eurasia.
Such a nightmare scenario for the US would be the perfect geopolitical, commercial and economic storm equivalently for U.S. interests and prosperity, forcing the U.S. to find a way to “swallow” and digest a frighteningly gigantic the trade deficit.
