Several of Joe Biden’s predecessors have had significant diplomatic successes in the Middle East. Democratic presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, for example, won the Nobel Peace Prize because of the Camp David and Oslo accords signed during their respective terms. As for Donald Trump, he has the so-called “Abraham Accords” to his credit, which led to the historic step of restoring relations between two Arab states, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, with the “hated” Israel.
The current president of the United States, by contrast, has been rather absent from this sensitive area, at least until recently. So much so, in fact, that many accuse him of leaving too much room for Russia and China to play – a fact that was also reflected in the recent agreement between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, which was brokered by Beijing.
Every day closer
The above picture, however, is likely to change radically in the near future. And this is because everything shows that a development is at hand, the importance of which will be greater than all the previous ones. An agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“Every day that passes we get closer. It seems for the first time to be real and serious,” said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself on September 20. The progress was also confirmed by the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, during the meeting he had last week with Biden – as he characteristically said, the three countries are “on the verge” of an agreement.
What do Saudi Arabia and Israel want?
One does not need to have special knowledge to realize that such a development will change the geopolitical map and balances. And in fact, not only in the specific region but also internationally, given the importance this has, however the truth is that the road to the final signatures is anything but paved with rose petals.
The reason is none other than the conditions set by each side in order to say “yes”. Terms that, combined with the correlations and contrasts within, cannot be ruled out in the end leading to the shipwreck. In the event that this eventually happens, then the consequences will also be serious, as reflected in the following statement by Netanyahu: “If we do not reach an agreement within the next few months, then it may be delayed for a few years.”
Significant trade-offs
But what are these terms? The Palestinian issue has a special role, which for the Riyadh regime and for the Arab world as a whole has historical significance. Obviously, then, Bin Salman knows that if he does not ensure significant exchanges for the Palestinians, he will cause a wave of discontent towards him. Thus, it requires Israel to re-recognize the right of the Palestinians to establish their own state, but also to immediately stop the settlements of the occupied territories in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
Nuclear energy
He, at the same time, demands the recognition of his country’s right to use nuclear energy – officially for peaceful purposes, with the “footnote”, however, that it will have the ability to build an atomic bomb if Iran succeeds. “If they get it, we have to get it too” as Bin Salman has said.
Netanyahu, for his part, knows that accepting these demands will lead to the collapse of the governing coalition he has assembled with the help of the most nationalist, far-right and religiously dogmatic parties. Thus, he realizes that objectively the alliance with the most centrist forces, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, will be a one-way street. It’s something, after all, that Washington has reportedly asked him to do — along with a compromise on judicial reform.
The great return of the US to the Middle East
The Americans, finally, aim for the “great comeback” in the Middle East, aspiring to play the role of guarantor in a new order of things, which will leave Moscow and Beijing in a secondary role, which continue to strengthen political and economic relations them with Riyadh. Their big “weapons” in this effort are their military power and supremacy as well as the lure of a new trade route that will start from India and end in Europe via S. Arabia and Israel.
Yesterday, meanwhile, Israel’s tourism minister traveled to Saudi Arabia for a UN conference, becoming the first Israeli government member to be there in an official capacity. And the question that arises is: Against all this, will Russia and China react – and how?
