India is seeking to distance itself from its biggest arms supplier, as Russia’s ability to supply New Delhi with ammunition and parts for weapons systems has been disrupted by the protracted war in Ukraine. However, the Narendra Modi government aims to tread carefully so as not to push Moscow closer to Beijing, as China is India’s major competitor.
Thus, the world’s largest arms importer is slowly but surely turning to the West, as the United States seeks to strengthen its influence in the Indo-Pacific region in order to establish a buffer zone for China’s influence.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, over the past 20 years 60% of India’s arms supplies have come from Russia. However, the war in Ukraine has accelerated the push to diversify the origins of its weapons systems.
Why New Delhi insists
New Delhi appears to be holding its ground despite tempting offers tabled by Moscow, which include advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets.
Russia has publicly urged India to strengthen defense ties, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned his attention to domestic production with Western technology, experts and officials said. Such efforts are better suited to the Indian Prime Minister’s ‘Make in India’ programme, which aims to encourage domestic manufacturing.
India is expected to spend nearly $100 billion on defense equipment orders over the next decade, India’s defense minister said. Last year, India and the US reached an agreement that allowed US General Electric to produce fighter jet engines in India.
The two countries also plan to accelerate technological cooperation and co-production in areas such as air defense and IT.
The fear of India
India’s further strengthening of ties with the United States is causing concern in China, as the two countries’ militaries have been embroiled in a standoff over the Himalayan border. As of 2020 the standoff has claimed the lives of 24 soldiers (please read the analysis titled “Tawang of the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh: The rekindling of war between China and India“). Therefore, New Delhi does not for any reason want its distance from Moscow to lead to a further tightening of the Kremlin’s relations with Beijing, which in such a case would be the only major importer of Russian products.
Russia’s arms exports have largely stabilized after the initial turmoil caused by the invasion of Ukraine. However, some fears remain for the Kremlin.
India is eyeing French fighter jets for its latest aircraft carrier and wants to build submarines with French, German or Spanish technology and fighter jets with American and French engines.
