“We have our own capabilities, including space capabilities, to fulfill all the missions required by the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the other day about the war in Ukraine, when asked about Kiev’s new allegations that China is providing information, via its satellites, to Russia about military strikes on Ukrainian territory.
This was preceded by a statement by Oleg Alexandrov, an official at the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, to the state news agency Ukrinform that Kiev has evidence that Beijing is providing Moscow with satellite data about missile strikes in Ukraine, especially on facilities of “foreign investors.”
With the full-scale Russian invasion continuing for the 43rd month, the war in Ukraine – bloody, prolonged and now constantly deteriorating – is taking on increasingly dangerous dimensions.
In the background are not only the escalating hybrid attacks and the increasing violations of the airspace of NATO and EU countries, which are publicly or tacitly attributed to Russia and make the risk of the conflict spreading more likely.
With the Ukrainian territories as the epicenter, the cohesion of alliances, their reactions and, apparently, the war plans of other states are being tested – in addition to new weapons systems.
A strategic ally of Moscow, Beijing is carefully recording Russian military successes and failures on the Ukrainian front, as well as the movements of the West and NATO, while drawing up its own plans for a possible invasion of Taiwan.
And, as it turns out, with the Kremlin’s “backing.” In fact, Moscow is reportedly already helping China prepare to take over Taiwan.
“Ready to invade Taiwan by 2027”
With Chinese President Xi Jinping having ordered the armed forces to be “ready to militarily occupy Taiwan by 2027,” Russia has agreed to provide Beijing with “weapons and equipment,” personnel training and the transfer of expertise “for airborne special forces infiltration,” according to a report by the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
“The world’s oldest defense and security think tank,” it says, citing its revelations as an analysis and “verification of details” in documents of “contracts and accompanying material,” some 800 pages, stolen by the “Black Moon” hacking group, and other unknown sources.
For China, RUSI explains, “a large-scale amphibious operation” to seize Taiwan “is extremely dangerous” due to the morphology of the island’s coastline, while in the scenario of “seizing airfields for the arrival of troops by air, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that runways can be quickly destroyed.”
Therefore, Beijing is preparing alternatives.
“Although the areas in which Russia surpasses China in military capabilities are decreasing, it has practical experience and a capability for air operations that China does not have,” the report notes.
As part of the “growing military-industrial cooperation”, it is reported, Moscow has agreed to a “full training cycle” of units of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from 2023, initially within Russian territory, and the sale to China of “a full set of weapons and equipment for an airborne battalion”, with the dropping of not just paratroopers, but entire armored vehicles, which “will pave the way for the landing of the forces that will follow”.
In this context, it is planned to “transport special “Dalnolyot” parachute systems, designed to introduce loads of up to 190 kg from an altitude of up to 32,000 feet, achieving a range of between 30-80 km” and providing the possibility of “penetrating Chinese special forces into the territory of other countries without being detected”.
“One hand washes the other”
According to the documents in question, the agreement provides for the sale by Russia to China of 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious self-propelled anti-tank guns, 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, as well as command and observation vehicles.
The airborne equipment described in the documents is described as necessary only for “the invasion phase” and is no longer considered useful in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In contrast, Moscow is estimated to receive more than $210 million to fuel its own war machine.
A document dated September 2024 indicates that the stages of analysis of technical specifications, software modifications and equipment construction have been completed on the Russian side.
According to RUSI, China wants all vehicles to be equipped with Chinese communications systems and be ready to use Chinese ammunition.
However, there is no evidence of payments from Beijing, nor whether the Chinese side has received any equipment.
Analysts estimate that the Kremlin’s long-term goal is to become, in addition to an energy supplier, also a military equipment supplier to China, thus strengthening the Russian economy and further distracting the US from the war in Ukraine.
Beijing, on the other hand, which already has the “upper hand” in the strategic position with Moscow, is interested not only in acquiring know-how in new (for the PLA) warfare tactics, but also in accessing advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance services, crucial for modern warfare.
In the meantime, according to a classified report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which was brought to light by the Australian ABC network, China is “rapidly strengthening its merchant fleet, preparing for an invasion of Taiwan”.
Already, “large ocean-going ships have been modified to carry tanks and participate in amphibious operations”, it says, while “more than 70 large vessels are being built by the end of 2026”.
Tough “bra de fer” with the US
Addressing the Chinese nation to celebrate the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping called for strong resistance to “authoritarian Taiwan independence activities” and external interference.
However, alliances in the Asia-Pacific region are being tested not only by Beijing’s tactics, but also by the unstable policies – tariff and diplomatic – of US President Donald Trump.
Citing sources, at least two US media outlets, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, report that President Xi is now putting suffocating pressure on the Trump administration to officially declare that he “opposes” Taiwan independence, as a condition for concluding a trade agreement between the US and China.
The two leaders are expected to hold a summit on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, which begins on October 31.
It will be preceded by the Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, from October 20-23.
Its meetings are considered crucial for decision-making in the world’s second-largest economy.
“I would recommend” to President Trump “to pay close attention to the fact that Xi Jinping is not only conducting increasingly large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, but also expanding military forces in East China and South China,” Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said on a US podcast on Tuesday.
In the event of the island’s annexation, “China will gain greater power to compete with the United States on the international stage, undermining the rules-based international order,” he stressed.
“If President Trump convinces Xi Jinping to definitively abandon all aggression against Taiwan, he will undoubtedly be a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize,” he added, drawing the ire of Beijing, which accused Lai of “prostituting himself” to “foreign powers” to gain their favor.
