The conflict in Gaza, with its recent developments and the agreed-upon ceasefire plan, continues to expose Israel’s strategic failures and political impasses, as well as the consequences of the mistakes made by its strategy in recent years. The agreement for the return of Israeli hostages and the partial withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, announced on October 8, 2025, may seem like a moment of hope for the region, but behind this temporary truce lie many unanswered concerns about Israel’s policy and strategy.
Blood was already flowing in Gaza before the ink on the so-called historic agreement was even dry. An Israeli soldier was killed, just hours before the Netanyahu government approved the agreement. In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the soldier in the 614th Combat Engineer Battalion was killed by Hamas sniper fire in Gaza City. A total of nine Palestinians were killed and several others wounded across Gaza by IDF fire on the same day, according to hospital sources.
Israeli partial withdrawal faces obstacles
The partial withdrawal was completed on the afternoon of October 10, according to an IDF statement, which said its troops remain ready to face any threat.
“As of 12:00 p.m., IDF troops have been deployed to the new deployment lines, based on the outline of the ceasefire agreement and the return of the hostages. IDF troops in the Southern Command have been deployed to the area and will continue to operate to eliminate any immediate threat,” the Israeli military said in a statement.
The US special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, later announced that US Central Command had confirmed that the IDF had completed its withdrawal. Within 72 hours, by October 13, Hamas is to release the hostages it is holding, starting with the 20 believed to be alive.
US Military Involvement in the Middle East – Trump’s Hidden Guarantee to Hamas
Trump provided a personal guarantee that Israel would not resume military operations in Gaza after reaching an agreement with Hamas, Axios reports, citing sources in the US administration.
As negotiations for the peace agreement neared completion, Trump reportedly assured that he would not allow Israel to withdraw from the agreement and continue the war.
According to officials, Trump’s guarantees include the creation of a US-led military team, whose mission will be to monitor the ceasefire and respond to any violations.
According to the same sources, it was precisely these assurances from the US president that convinced Hamas to accept the terms of the agreement. Trump had previously announced that Israel and Hamas had signed the first part of the proposed peace plan, which includes the withdrawal of Israeli troops to agreed borders and the rapid release of hostages held in the area. However, it is doubtful whether the US military team will be able to convince the IDF to refrain from any military action in the near future.
Gaza ceasefire a bloody fiasco
The agreement for the return of Israeli hostages, which also includes the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, is a significant move on a humanitarian level.
However, from a political and strategic perspective, this agreement reveals Israel’s inability to achieve a viable and comprehensive strategic goal. Israel’s failure to destroy Hamas and impose a regime of complete strategic dominance in the region makes this withdrawal a necessity rather than a choice.
The fact that the agreement does not include the complete elimination of Hamas but is limited to humanitarian issues such as the return of the hostages shows that Israel, despite its military successes, has failed to achieve its goals on a political and strategic level.
This limitation on the first phase of the agreement reinforces the image of Israel in a political deadlock, without a real exit strategy from the conflict. The question remains: what comes after this agreement?
The indications are that the second phase of the agreement, which concerns the political solution of the Gaza and Palestinian issues, remains unclear and has not led to concrete results. Moreover, the withdrawal of Israeli forces does not guarantee that Hamas or other powerful actors in the region will not return to aggressive actions in the future.
Strategic Mistakes and Self-Trapping
Israel’s strategy for Gaza in recent years appears to have been based on a series of strategic mistakes and misunderstandings. Israel believed it had found an “easy” solution to stability in Gaza through its deal with Qatar, which financed Gaza’s economy, hoping that Hamas would shift toward governance and away from armed resistance.
This tactic, which resulted in a lull of about ten years, made Israel complacent and not pay due attention to signs of Hamas’s restructuring of strategy and the reactivation of its military arm. The failure to take Hamas’s signals seriously and to respond strategically in a timely manner led to Israel’s strategic failure to prevent the scale of the October 7, 2023 attack.
Israel’s choice to underestimate the organization’s armed capabilities proved disastrous, as Hamas managed to surprise Israel and inflict extensive casualties and damage.
Contradiction in Israeli strategies and on the domestic political front
Israel’s strategy, as reflected in its political goal of “totally eliminating Hamas,” may prove contradictory to Israel’s own declarations and actions.
On the one hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-wing government seek a decisive victory, the complete destruction of Hamas and the elimination of its political and military potential. On the other hand, the need for an agreed ceasefire plan, with a limitation of military action and the return of hostages, may indicate that Israel’s goals cannot be achieved without significant compromises.
Internal opposition to the government, mainly from the hard right, which continues to insist on the complete destruction of Hamas may weaken Israel’s political position and complicate the process of a peaceful resolution.
US influence and international pressure
US involvement under Donald Trump was crucial to the adoption of the ceasefire agreement. Washington’s pressure, especially after Israel’s move to attack the Hamas leadership in Qatar, appears to be forcing Israel to accept compromises it was previously unwilling to accept.
The Trump administration’s commitment that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza” and the assurance that Israel will not annex or expel Palestinians were important points that secured the agreement’s acceptance. However, the future of the agreement and its implementation remain uncertain, as Israel’s hard right continues to reject the idea of any political solution that involves concessions.
Domestic Disappointment
The war in Gaza has confronted Israel with serious strategic and political failures. The country seems to be in a vicious circle, where military successes and humanitarian concessions do not lead to a meaningful political solution to the conflict.
The ceasefire agreement, with its unclear conditions and contradictions within the Israeli political scene, reflects this weakness and strategic uncertainty.
The need for a new political strategy, which will promote a sustainable dialogue and a real solution for the Palestinians, is more urgent than ever. Israel seems to remain locked into strategies that do not respond to the real needs of the region, resulting in continued political isolation and tensions with its neighbors. Without a radical revision of this strategy, the peace process and the security of the region remain in doubt.
