The new conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand, which have recently flared up over the disputed border zone around the Preah Vihear temple, have highlighted not only the historical tensions between the two countries, but also the broader geopolitical interests that can arise from a local crisis. Despite the fact that Thailand officially states that it is simply “defending itself against unprovoked attacks,” the developments, the manner of escalation and the rhetoric of the military establishment indicate that things may be heading towards a strategic shift – even towards the scenario of overthrowing the Phnom Penh regime.
The political crisis in Thailand and the need for “national uplift” through an external adversary
Thailand is in one of the most unstable political periods in its recent history. The military establishment, which maintains absolute control over the political scene after successive coups and interventions, has seen its social legitimacy collapse.
Corruption scandals, repression of the opposition, and the strict application of the lese-majeste law have brought the army face to face with a growing wave of social discontent.
In this context, the creation or projection of an external enemy can function as a mechanism to rally society, but also to strengthen the army as a “guarantor of national security.”
Cambodia is ideally suited: it has a historical rivalry with Thailand, has a smaller military force, and is still ruled by Hun Sen and his son – figures who have already been demonized within the Thai public discourse.
However, as in many cases around the world, military engagement with a weaker country easily degenerates into a protracted campaign when the objectives of the operation extend beyond the initial purpose.
As the conflicts continue and the narrative of a “permanent threat from the Cambodian regime” strengthens, it is not excluded that the idea will be promoted that the permanent solution is demilitarization or even the overthrow of the Hou Sen regime.
This could be presented as a “preemptive action for regional stability”.
The West’s Old Rhetoric
Hou Sen has been targeted by the West before. His rumored agreement with China to host a Chinese naval base in Cambodia, as well as his anti-Western governance, have made him an undesirable interlocutor for the US and the EU.
Against this backdrop, a Thai regime change operation could gain tacit support from the West, especially if accompanied by Thai commitments that the new regime in Phnom Penh will distance itself from China. That is, the intervention does not have to be “on the orders of the West” to serve its interests.
China’s and Russia’s Silence: Strategic Calculation or Complicit Inaction?
Although Cambodia is a close ally of China, and Russia’s rhetoric advocates multipolarity and respect for the sovereignty of states, neither superpower would want to clash with Thailand – a more powerful and geostrategically crucial partner in the region.
China is investing billions in Thailand, from railway networks to industrial parks, and it is unlikely to risk these relationships for the sake of Phnom Penh.
Similarly, Russia, which is trying to strengthen its presence in Asia, may maintain a neutral stance – while its own media rarely criticizes Moscow’s strategic partners.
Vietnam and its historical influence in Cambodia
The only state that could potentially prevent an open intervention by Thailand is Vietnam – which historically had overthrown the Khmer Rouge regime and supported the rise of Houn Sen.
However, Vietnam-Cambodia relations are complex and it is not excluded that Hanoi may not look down on a partial “rearrangement” of balances, as long as its own influence is not threatened.
Vietnam is most likely to silently observe developments, reserving the right to intervene only if the situation completely gets out of control.
The Mekong hinterland as a silent battlefield of the new era
The possible scenario of regime change in Cambodia by Thailand is not just about the two countries. It is indicative of how local tensions can be transformed into geopolitical tools, whether for military regimes seeking legitimacy or for global powers seeing opportunities to realign their influence.
In an era when the West seeks allies to contain China and the East seeks to maintain its influence without provoking open conflict, silence may prove more eloquent than overt action.
Cambodia’s fate may not be decided on the battlefields of the border but at diplomatic tables behind closed doors. And its people, as so many times in history, may once again find themselves a mere bystander to the decisions of the powerful.
Geopolitical realignment in Southeast Asia
Amidst the rapid geopolitical developments, the most tragic aspect is often overlooked: the human lives lost. Already, the border fighting has left behind dozens of dead soldiers and civilians and hundreds of wounded.
Villages have been evacuated, families have been torn apart, and young children are experiencing the horror of war. These deaths, from all sides, are not “collateral damage” but a resounding message that escalation is already having a very heavy price.
If the leaderships of the two countries and international powers ignore this reality, then the next step may be generalized destruction.
New Thai Bombings – Bloodbath Fears
Thailand on 26/7/2025 launched new air strikes inside Cambodian territory, causing many deaths and thousands of displaced people. The Thai Air Force announced that four F-16 and JAS-39 Gripen fighters carried out strikes against Cambodian artillery positions in the Phu Ma Kua area and the Ta Muen Thom temple, a symbol of the conflict.
Almost simultaneously, Phu Ma Kua was captured by Thai ground forces. The operation was described as “successful” by the authorities, without further details.
The fighting began after two landmine explosions on July 16 and 23 injured Thai soldiers in Ubon province. Tensions have escalated around the historic Ta Muen Thom temple, a site of long-standing territorial disputes.
The 817-km border remains partly undefined, a result of colonial demarcation by France, while Thailand refuses to grant Cambodia’s request for jurisdiction to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
The total number of casualties is rising dramatically:
- Cambodia: 5 soldiers, 7 civilians dead. More than 70 injured, including 50 civilians.
- Thailand: 6 soldiers, 13 civilians (including children) dead. At least 59 injured in total. The attacks have also hit religious sites, including a Buddhist pagoda where a Cambodian citizen was killed by Thai missiles.
- More than 20,000 Cambodians have already fled their homes.
- 138,000 Thais have evacuated areas near the border, with 300 refugee reception centers opened.
Thai Air Force Strikes Cambodia with Bombs from South Korea
Tensions along the disputed border between Thailand and Cambodia have now escalated into armed conflict, with the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) leading a series of targeted airstrikes against key targets in Cambodian territory.
Of particular concern is the now-confirmed use of South Korean KGGB guided bombs – a precision weapons system that gives the Thai force a significant technological advantage over an adversary with minimal air capabilities.
KGGB (Korean GPS-Guided Bombs) are guidance systems that transform conventional American MK-82 bombs weighing 316 kg into smart weapons with high precision and range.
They use GPS and an inertial navigation system (INS), achieving attack accuracy with a deviation of less than 4 meters.
But the most impressive thing is the range: KGGB can attack targets from a distance of 85 to 103 kilometers, depending on the altitude and speed of the aircraft that releases them.
This means that RTAF fighters can strike deep into Cambodian territory without having to enter Cambodian airspace, dramatically reducing the risk to the crews.
The RTAF has a sizeable fleet, with at least 11 latest-generation Swedish Gripen fighters and dozens of older American F-16s and F-5s.
In contrast, Cambodia has no operational fighter aircraft, creating absolute air dominance for Thailand.
The first photo confirming the use of KGGB was published on July 26 and clearly shows such a bomb attached to a Thai F-16, confirming the technological upgrade of the RTAF’s arsenal.
