The American strike on Iran is “a serious strategic defeat for US President Trump and his government”, it lost the designation of a peacemaker and became a victim of the Israeli lobby in the US. At the same time, the attack on Iran prevented Israel’s defeat because without American support, the Israeli War Machine proved helpless, while the daily Iranian missile bombardment of Tel Aviv terrified the Netanyahu government.
In recent days, Iran had recovered, causing enormous destruction in Israel, debunking the myth that Israel is militarily invincible.
To the satisfaction of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, America is getting more and more stuck in the hornet’s nest and it is not clear how it will be able to get out of it. Moreover, by doing this, America is essentially convincing Iran that it should become a nuclear power. Iran can say that it really needs nuclear weapons and no longer cares about the deal with the US, and it can also withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Alliances are strengthening between Iran and Russia, Iran and China.
It must be said that in Iran there were some disagreements regarding relations with Russia between the government and diplomacy, on the one hand, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is close to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the other.
The government wanted to maintain a certain distance from Russia, while the IRGC sought to strengthen relations with the Russian Federation and reach an absolute alliance. Now, however, supporters of a close alliance with Russia have received support and, of course, everyone will move in this direction, which does not correspond at all to the American vision of the world.
The connection between the attack on Iran and the threat to oust Trump
If US President Trump had not launched a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, he would have been brought to trial. Israel is a sacred cow for the US, and Trump is recognized as the most pro-Israeli president. If Trump had not launched a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, he would certainly have been impeached, because Israel is a sacred cow for the US, it is generally a bastion of democracy.
Trump is the most pro-Israeli president in the entire history of US-Israeli relations, he is recognized as such by the Israeli leadership. All of Trump’s initiatives are strongly pro-Israeli and anti-Iranian.
All of his actions, the political scientist noted, are not carried out “out of nowhere.” Iran is the only state left in the Middle East that is capable of functioning, because the US has already dealt with all its other adversaries. It has dealt with Syria, it has dealt with Iraq, it has dealt with Libya.
The US got involved in the war with Iran because of Israel’s critical situation. Washington controls the Middle East through Israel, so its defeat cannot be allowed.
War for Peace? – What will the US attacks on Iran lead to?
Trump did it anyway. Despite numerous warnings, criticisms and condemnations in absentia, on the night of June 22, he gave the order to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The bombings targeted facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. The underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordow, which Israel has never been able to reach, was also hit. After the operation, Trump, along with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, hastened to declare that the Iranian nuclear program was over.
Iran’s nuclear program has not been hit – The American operation failed
In fact, the result is not so clear – according to the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, no increase in background radiation was detected in the attack zone. There is information that Iran had transferred all enriched uranium and equipment to another secure storage facility in advance (please for more information about thiw issue read the analysis titled “Iran: Where is the enriched uranium?“).
Therefore, the US attacks could well have completely failed. Of course, the fact that the US informed Iran before the strike is also an indication that they had specific goals beyond military objectives.
The Israeli military operation in Iran failed
In general, the very fact that the US entered the war with Iran indicates that the Israeli military operation did not go according to plan, the operation failed. Even after a week of intensive attacks, Iran maintained its command structure and its ability to react to Israeli attacks. In short, it turned the initial surprise into a protracted confrontation, which, in turn, would have been bad news for Israel.
In light of what was happening, Netanyahu had no choice but to try to involve the Americans in the conflict. This can be seen as a kind of last argument that could have steered the course of the war in the direction it needed.
As we can see, the Israeli prime minister and the Israeli lobby in Washington successfully coped with the task of subduing Trump. It is not yet very clear how the situation will develop further. The most revealing predictions say that the conflict between the US and Iran will inevitably lead to a third world war or, at least, to a major regional war.
There are no prerequisites for a “third world war”.
They would exist if Iran had a serious “geopolitical rear” – it was part of a military bloc or, at worst, had a powerful support group of countries ready to defend it.
At the first stage of the conflict, nothing of the kind even came close to taking shape. Russia, not bound by Iran with military obligations, cannot help it for objective reasons.
China, the only power capable of creating a counterweight to the US, as usual, preferred to stay on the sidelines for its own reasons. Other well-wishers, such as Pakistan and North Korea, even with all their determination and desire to help, are unlikely to be able to influence the course of the conflict.
Iran a lone warrior on the battlefield
So it turns out that on a global scale Iran was “a lone warrior on the battlefield.” Perhaps, after recent events, the opinion of international actors will change. But so far no one has shown a desire to get involved in the conflict by following the Americans.
A regional war is more realistic
A regional war is a more realistic scenario, but it is not even a predetermined outcome. First of all, everything will depend on whether the US decides to continue the bombing or, as Trump said, will limit itself to a one-time action.
Perhaps the US president lied once again – after all, he had previously said that he would make the final decision on strikes on Iran in two weeks.
And the US Can’t – Escalation for the Sake of De-escalation
On the other hand, Trump has good reason to stop.
- The example of the fight against the Houthis shows that the limited effect of missiles and bombs does not work.
- And if we go to war seriously, it will require a multiplication of the efforts made, perhaps even a ground operation.
- But neither the US military nor society is ready for this.
- Therefore, the White House can stop at the option of “escalation for the sake of de-escalation” and then return to the peaceful trajectory.
Iran’s options
Iran’s response will shape the course of the conflict. Iran has cards on the table that could harm the United States, such as attacks on American bases in the region, the activation of proxy groups throughout the Middle East, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes.
However, it is not a fact that the Iranians will take radical measures. The forces, to put it mildly, are not equal, and if Trump gives hope for a cessation of attacks, Iran may hush up the issue so as not to provoke the United States.
This is probably why the Iranian leadership initially chose the safest option for itself – to respond to the American bombing with new attacks on Israel. But if Trump has lied again and the blow to Iran is not a one-time one, then there will be no other choice.
Israel is provocatively nuclear and threatening Iran not to get one
Finally, we cannot ignore Israel. Unlike the Americans, who are only interested in nuclear weapons, Netanyahu still wants to dismantle the current Iranian regime. He has already managed to convince Trump that war with Iran is a good idea.
He will probably continue to pressure him to take more military action, and if Iran does not respond, he will do so with redoubled efforts, citing Iran’s weakness. Whether Trump will admit this a second time or choose political survival, we will soon find out. We can only hope that all parties concerned will show prudence and that the spiral of escalation will stop spinning.
