Taiwan or as its official name is the Republic of China (ROC) / Republic of China (as opposed to China, whose official name is the People’s Republic of China / People’s Republic of China) and the results of its recent elections ( Saturday 13, 2024) are a critical issue. China is the birthplace of one of the oldest civilizations on the planet, with human presence in the region being traced back to the prehistoric years of homo erectus.
The history of China in its modern form can be traced back to the beginning of the 20th century, where in 1912 the imperial form was overthrown and China was declared a republic, with the Kuomintang as the main entity behind this drastic change. In 1927 Chiang Kai-shek will take over the Kuomintang, and will soon come into conflict with Mao Zedong. In fact the conflict between the two warring factions has never ended, and the Kuomintang (which had taken refuge in the late 1940s on the island of Taiwan) declares itself to be the legitimate government of mainland China as well.
Taiwan was able to make the most of the investment and grants that came mainly from the US, and by the 1970s, Taiwan had managed to become the second fastest growing economy in Asia after Japan. Today, Taiwan dominates many technological sectors, with the semiconductor and integrated circuit (microchip) sector being the most important from a geopolitical point of view (it is typical that 90% of the world’s microchip production comes from Taiwan), with the company TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited) to dominate the space.
As Taiwan claims to represent the legitimate government of all of China, mainland China similarly regards Taiwan as its – breakaway – province, which will soon return to the mainland. The main opposition party, the conservative Kuomintang, is not opposed to such a prospect, and there are – sporadic but not concrete – reports that the current leadership of the party is extremely predisposed to such a development, despite the fact that the party itself supports the “policy of the three nos”, that is, no unification, no independence and no use of force.
Lai Ching-te has been openly described by Beijing as a “serious danger” because of his positions in favor of the island’s independence. But the interesting thing is that in the case, Hu Yu-yi, who is supported by the KMT, was finally elected – who has the exact opposite views, but with the support (material and diplomatic) of mainland China – to start negotiations for the future integration. This scenario would have the potential to create chain reactions, which could even lead to civil strife! In this case it is absolutely certain that each warring side would call on its “protectors” for help, which would make the conflict in Ukraine look like a kidden playground.
Additionally, such a development would have extremely serious implications for both Ukraine and Israel, as the US would have to choose who to support. It may be a superpower, but its resources are finite and its political system is in a difficult situation, which reflects on its government. At the same time, China is neither Houthi nor Ukraine. But Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected and this nightmare scenario is a thing of the past.
