On Tuesday September 12, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s armored train arrived in Vladivostok, Russia for a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This summit marks a dangerous turn for global and regional security and could have significant implications for the Ukraine war.
This meeting is also the latest example of a serious deterioration in global stability since Joe Biden became president in January 2021.
Regarding the Ukraine war, Kim said that “Russia is currently engaged in a righteous struggle against hegemonic powers to defend its sovereign rights, security and interests.”
This is not the first time Kim has defied the international community over the Ukraine war. North Korea was one of only four countries that supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine and blamed US involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
On September 5, 2022, Biden administration officials told the press that declassified intelligence showed that Russia was buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea to support its invasion of Ukraine.
In November 2022, the Biden administration accused North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with a “significant” number of artillery shells. In December 2022, Biden officials claimed that North Korea supplied “Wagner”, with anti-personnel rockets and missiles for the war in Ukraine.
The main purpose of the summit is reportedly Putin’s urgent need for ammunition for use by the Russian military in the war in Ukraine, specifically artillery shells and anti-tank missiles. His army in Ukraine is in trouble and on the defensive. Russia’s munitions stocks have been depleted due to sanctions and mismanagement of the war.
North Korea is believed to want food aid and fuel in exchange for military support. Kim could also press Putin for advanced technology for his missile, satellite and submarine programs.
There is a limit
Putin may agree to any or all of Kim’s demands above. But there will be a limit to this new relationship.
Putin will not agree to provide North Korea with nuclear technology, as he views Kim as an unstable bigot who may use or proliferate nuclear weapons.
Dangerous consequences
The Kim-Putin Summit may have other dangerous implications for regional and global security.
1. Putin’s decision to “embrace” Kim could indicate that North Korea will regain with Russia the client-state status it had with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Russia ended this relationship after the dissolution of the USSR because it could not afford it and was more interested in improving relations with South Korea and Japan. Although China intervened “as a benefactor” of North Korea and today provides significant energy aid, its support for North Korea was far less generous than that received from the Soviet Union.
Putin may have decided that the cost of supporting North Korea as a client and proxy state is in Russia’s best interest, given how severely isolated it has become by the war in Ukraine.
2. A Kim-Putin Summit may be part of a new Russia-China-North Korea axis, intended to confront the United States and create a new world order.
The significant deterioration of US relations with Moscow and Beijing over the past 18 months and during the war in Ukraine have drawn these two states closer and led to speculation that they could form a formal alliance.
A recent joint visit of high-level Russian and Chinese officials to Pyongyang and press reports that there may be a joint Russia-China-North Korea naval exercise may also suggest that these states are exploring a tripartite alliance or axis.
North Korea is likely seeking Russian help to launch military reconnaissance satellites, which it needs to boost the capabilities of its nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. Russian military support for North Korea could also lead to an expansion of Pyongyang’s arms transfers to other nations, particularly Iran.
“Βad news”
The Kim-Putin Summit and the possibility of a Russia-China-North Korea axis are obviously “bad news” for American and global security. They are the latest examples of how global security has deteriorated under Joe Biden’s presidency.
It is important to note that Trump’s personal diplomacy with Kim left Biden with a stable situation with North Korea when he became president in January 2021. US relations with Russia and China were also much better.
It is also no coincidence that North Korea’s increase in missile testing and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine occurred after the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan at the behest of Biden.
The Kim-Putin Summit probably shows that the Biden administration’s change of heart on North Korea was too little too late.
While Biden’s recent effort to build a stronger US-South Korea-Japan alliance has been a good initiative in response to growing provocations from North Korea, it is probably not possible at this point for the Biden administration to stop a potential increase in of North Korean influence in the development of a dangerous new Russia-China-North Korea alliance.
