Although a business jet in constant use by a businessman who was simultaneously trying to avoid all kinds of rivals and oversee the activities of a company that offered mercenary services in a number of countries had an increased chance of being involved in a serious accident anyway, there are not a few those who believe that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death was the result of a plot to assassinate him.
In fact, this seems to be taken for granted by most Western media, which almost directly attribute to Vladimir Putin the order for the assassination of the creator of the mercenary company Wagner.
And it is true that in some respects such an interpretation seems reasonable. It is enough to consider that very recently Prigozhin led an idiosyncratic rebellion against the Russian Ministry of Defense but essentially the Russian government as a whole, an armed rebellion, with casualties on the part of the government forces and at its peak the march of a phalanx of Wagner military vehicles towards Moscow. This was perhaps the biggest challenge to Putin, a self-proclaimed politician who does not tolerate betrayal.
If we add to this that Western agencies and governments have attributed assassinations of political opponents or even “disturbing” journalists to Putin, we can understand why the narrative emerges that the crash was essentially a decision to execute Prigozhin.
However – and pending evidence from any investigation into the crash of Prigozhin’s jet – there are also reasons to be more cautious about such a scenario.
1. First of all, there is the question of why Russia would do it now, and indeed on the day of BRICS enlargement, that is, overshadowing a fact that shows that it is anything but isolated.
2. Then there is the question of why he would try, along with Prigozhin, to want to eliminate the entire Wagner leadership even though it is clear that the mercenary company remains useful to the Kremlin’s designs, especially since it plays an important role in ensuring an indirect Russian presence and support to governments in critical areas such as Africa.
3. And of course there is also the question of whether he would choose such an “impressive” methodology, especially since the West attributes to the Russian services mainly murders with neurotoxins.
4. On the other hand, it is interesting that in the relevant discussion, not so much weight is given to which other countries targeted Prigozhin. First of all, there is Ukraine itself which apparently has not forgiven Wagner at all for playing a decisive role in critical moments of the “special military operation”. And although the Russian government wanted to integrate the Wagner fighters in Ukraine into its regular armed forces, this does not negate the fact that for the Ukrainian authorities they have always been a parameter in the overall balance of power. And of course with drone attacks and other actions, Ukrainian services have shown that they can operate on Russian soil.
5. Nor should we forget that Wagner was also targeted by the United States. This has mainly to do with the role that the mercenary company has in Africa where it effectively represents Russian policy and where it has covered part of the vacuum left by the partial withdrawal of Western forces, especially the French, from some countries in the Sahel. Given that, whether openly pro-Western or not, countries in the region need military support in the face of ongoing Islamist militancy, the US would be hoping for a Wagner withdrawal to fill a critical void and thereby maintain influence. On the contrary, it is the possibility of resorting to Wagner’s services that acts as a reinforcement for the eventual choice of rupture with the West. It is no coincidence that e.g. vis-à-vis the coup in Niger, the US has adopted relatively low tones, precisely because it wants to maintain a military presence but also to avoid strengthening Wagner’s presence.
All of this paints a picture where there were quite a few who one could reasonably assume would have wanted a weakened Wagner and a Prigozhin without the power and presence he still retained, especially if we consider beyond international fault lines and the various active fault lines even within Russian elites. Obviously, finding that a mercenary company is a nuisance to more than one government does not automatically translate into an order to assassinate its head, but the possibility of “things being done but not said” is always there, and historical examples abound.
In any case, what is certain is that Yevgeny Prigozhin had reached a limit. He built a large mercenary company managing large funds and under the condition that he would accept the framework set by the Kremlin. However, at some point he overestimated his ability to challenge Kremlin policies – even worse, he thought he could dictate policies or even blackmail them to pass – and all this while Wagner was involved not only in the Ukraine war but also in wider geopolitical confrontations.
Whether all this actually translated into decisions to take action against him or whether it was really an accident, we may never know and just different narratives circulate. After all, even the random event can ultimately be the last piece in an already completed puzzle.
