“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” Sun Tzu, 500 BC.
Although the definition hybrid threats/hybrid warfare is not new, and even the tactics followed have existed in military manuals for thousands of years (e.g., propaganda), the reality shows that we are still in a “transitional period” where the limits, the conditions, but also the perspectives of hybrid businesses are constantly being rearranged and evolving.
Essentially, war is organized violence between political units (or societies) with the aim of imposing the will of the victor on the vanquished. In the thousands of years of humanity, war has remained the same, but the way in which it is conducted, the warfare (warfare) constantly changes and is modified to reflect the general social, political and economic developments of each era.
At the end of the 15th century, Christopher Columbus (accidentally) discovers the American continent, leading a few decades later to the strategic importance of controlling the sea zones. This allowed the naval powers of the time (indicative: England, Spain, Portugal, etc.) to dominate on a global level and to control huge areas of land, many times their size. This strategy gave way to the “control of the skies”, or Command of the Air, from the homonymous (in Italian) poem of the Italian general Giulio Douhet. Today, we are at another crossroads, where “information dominance” is a critical success factor.
During a US Congressional hearing, General William Westmoreland testified about the importance of data links, computers, and automatic fire control methods used to detect, pin down, and engage enemy forces. . This hearing took place in 1970, two whole years before the invention of the microprocessor!
A decade later and in the Soviet Union (USSR) this time, General Николай Васильевич Огарков (Николай Васильевич Огарков) referred to a military technological “revolution” that would allow the dramatic improvement and destructiveness of conventional weapons, and which was in opposition with the prevailing Soviet doctrine, which advocated quantity over “technological superiority”.
In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula (until then a territory held by Ukraine) in a dramatic move that effectively set the stage for the Russian-Ukrainian war that continues to this day. Although military operations of a hybrid nature had taken place before, the annexation of Crimea was the first time that an “arsenal” of hybrid “weapons” was used as part of a wider military operation, where information operations (information campaign) were the objective and not the means to achieve it.
Military and paramilitary groups with state-of-the-art weaponry and equipment appeared in various locations, weapon systems were suddenly appearing, disinformation campaigns and information manipulation were taking place, along with a barrage of cyber-attacks. attacks).
In 1998, the American Robert G. Walker will mention in his Master’s Thesis at the Naval Post-Graduate School, that an expeditionary corps of marines constitutes a hybrid force [suitable] for hybrid wars (“a hybrid force for Hybrid Wars”). The term was used a few years later (2007) by Frank G. Hoffman, in his related work, which constitutes the “book” on the subject of “Hybrid War”, where the relevant definition is also included.
It should be noted, however, that even this concept of hybrid warfare is disputed by many, who consider that the relevant predictions are already covered by other related strategies (eg propaganda, sabotage, etc.). Usually, those who question the concept of hybrid warfare make the mistake of placing the operations involved within the framework of conventional warfare, when in fact, the exact opposite is the case. It is characteristic that the target of hybrid operations is no longer military units (or rather it is not only military units), but hybrid operations target the general population and even tend to take advantage of basic human weaknesses, which are magnified in the modern – digitized – reality.
Hybrid threats combine military and civilian operations as well as covert and covert methods, which include disinformation and influence operations, cyber-attacks, economic pressure and/or trade warfare, the development of terrorist/illegal armed groups as well as the use of conventional tactics and weapons.
In the information age, hybrid threats have gained unprecedented power due to the rapid development of technology and the proliferation of digital capabilities and assets. The interdependence of globalized society has created a vast digital landscape where disinformation, propaganda and cyber-attacks can be (and are) wielded as weapons in an ever-growing arsenal.
State and non-state actors can exploit this -digital- landscape to distort public opinion, sow discord and undermine trust in institutions. The ability to conduct influence campaigns, disinformation and launch cyber attacks is a significant challenge for governments, organizations and each of us individually.
Additionally, hybrid threats are not limited to a virtual and fuzzy environment, but can also manifest in the physical world. Covert military operations, economic coercion, proxy-war, and terrorist acts are just a few examples of the various tactics used in hybrid warfare.
Blurring the lines between traditional warfare and unconventional methods, hybrid threats exploit the vulnerabilities and interdependencies of modern societies. They seek to exploit loopholes in governance, exploit ethnic or religious tensions, weaken alliances and undermine societal resilience.
Addressing hybrid threats requires a comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach that combines information sharing, international cooperation, strategic communication and investment in cybersecurity capabilities. It also requires strengthening societal resilience, promoting knowledge about what is circulated by the media, and strengthening democratic institutions to effectively counter disinformation and propaganda.
As technology continues to evolve and new threats emerge, it is critical for governments, organizations and individuals to remain vigilant, adapt to the evolving landscape and work together to address the risks posed by hybrid threats.
