Following the unilateral changes announced by the British Government to the Northern Ireland Protocol, the consequences will be many, and possibly political and commercial.
Amid high inflation and nightmarish cost of life, the prospect of a trade war with the EU is now on the horizon. Two years after the end of Brexit, the controversial and complex Northern Ireland Protocol is at the heart of the new controversy.
The Northern Ireland Protocol on the framework of rules governing trade relations between the United Kingdom and the EU-27. Free trade continues on the island of Ireland between the north (belonging to the United Kingdom and outside the EU) and the Republic of Ireland (EU member state).
It was a necessary arrangement to comply with the Good Friday Agreement, which ended a long period of armed conflict in Northern Ireland in 1998 between supporters of the Union with Ireland (Catholics) and those who professed allegiance to the UK (Protestants).
Thus, the “border” of the United Kingdom with the EU was moved to the sea between Great Britain (England, Scotland, Wales) and Northern Ireland. Two years later, the government of Boris Johnson declares its determination to change the Protocol of Northern Ireland. Even unilaterally, unless the EU agrees. As he announced earlier, he will submit a relevant bill to the House of Commons in early June.
It was preceded in early May by the electoral “strap” of the Northern Ireland Conservative allies of the British government, who have since blocked the formation of a new government in Belfast and as stipulated in the “Good Friday Agreement” (for more details, please read the analysis with the title “Sein Fein’s Victory causes Political Stalemate in London“).
For any cooperation with Sinn Féin – a major winner of the ballot and a key political spokesman for the request for reunification with Ireland – they now set as a condition the change of the Protocol. Therefore, the new round of talks scheduled for next week between London and Brussels is expected to be tough.
EU warning messages to the UK
The Protocol can not be drastically changed just two years after its implementation, given that the concessions have been exhausted and unilateral actions will not be accepted without harsh countermeasures, say Brussels officials. Especially when the constant bargains in the UK have begun to tire and cause intense discomfort in Brussels.
Continuing, EU sources point out that with his new demands the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to once again disorient the inner audience from the cost of living crisis, financial problems, his deadlocked immigration policy and his obstacles with the crown parties.
It seems, therefore, that the EU is not expected this time to agree to the political rescue of the British Prime Minister in the multiple problems he faces both in society and within the Tories. European officials say the risk of a trade war is real. For the time being, Brussels is considering all options.
The political and trade measures being considered by the EU
The measures the EU is considering in the UK are scalable and start from the start of lengthy legal proceedings for a fine in the United Kingdom and the cessation of cooperation in a number of key areas that could blow up the UK’s efforts to sign a bilateral free trade agreement with the United States. Until the implementation of the extreme option for termination of the UK-EU trade agreement.
Another solution, however, is to consider imposing tariffs on targeted British products, which are being constructed in constituencies of Conservative MPs close to the British Prime Minister and supporters of Brexit. The same tactic was applied to the United States during the presidency of Donald Trump, inflicting a severe economic blow on states controlled by the Republicans and their electoral base.
In the case of Boris Johnson, if he maintains an uncompromising stance towards Brussels, the aim is to put internal pressure on him to change direction and fully implement the Protocol.
British citizens are already experiencing the worst deterioration in their standard of living in half a century. And a trade war with the EU is expected to worsen the situation even further, with a repeat of last year’s chaotic scenes with empty shelves in supermarkets and shortages of basic goods, then as a result of the pandemic and Brexit.
But as the financial crisis begins to create “armies” of poor young people in Britain and discontent with the ruling party is growing – as local elections showed earlier this month – the scenarios for the removal of Boris Johnson from Downing Street by the same Tories are back on the political scene. A trade war with the EU could ignite them.
