After the Joe Biden – Vladimir Putin meeting, held in Geneva, which may have given a pause to the deterioration of US-Russia relations, making the US believe that they can stabilise their relations with Russia at a very low level, upon invitation of the European Council, the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy are presenting a study titled «Joint Communication on the EU’s Relations with Russia» (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ presscorner/detail/ en/ip_21_ 3010 ) which presents its own estimates of the outlook for relations between the EU and Russia.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
©The law of intellectual property is prohibited in any way unlawful use/appropriation of this article, with heavy civil and criminal penalties for the infringer.
Photo by the website https://en.wikipedia.org
The supervisor of the team that compiled the report was The Vice President/High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. The report concludes that EU-Russia relations in the future will develop negatively, with an ever-downward spiral and reach, with a high probability, the point of being interrupted for some time.
This report summarizes the European strategy in the phrase ‘pushes back, constraint and engages Russia’. But the question that arises is whether the above strategy can be successfully implemented because of the EU’s internal contradictions combined with Russia’s negativity.
Russia – Military Superpower, Political Power with Weak Economy
What is mentioned in the above study is that “Russia is the EU’s largest neighbour and remains a force to be reckoned with in Europe and worldwide. This is mainly based on its size and geographical scope, its readiness to project its political, diplomatic, and military potential internationally.
As a geopolitical player, Russia aspires to maintain its global status based on its political power, in a multi-polar world often in cooperation with other players, such as China, rather than contributing and acting within a stronger multidimensional rules-based system. In its own way (please read the analysis entitled “The Russian Method of Controlling the Spheres of Influence Caused By Thrives with the EU“). Russia is trying to impose its own geopolitical sphere of influence.”
Russia believes it is the continuation of the Russian Empire and the USSR. But a modern empire is based on four pillars of superpower, economic, political, military and the rule of law.
Let the reader consider why all kinds of refugee-immigrant flows from wherever they come from are asking to end up in the EU, USA and more generally in Anglo-Saxon societies/countries and not in Russia, China, etc. Because it is simply the rule of law that is applied that lays the foundations for the social and individual well-being of citizens in these societies.
Photo by the website https://en.wikipedia.org
Russia’s economic potential is comparatively limited. Politically, the problems are well known and magnified by the case of Alexei Navalny, while demographically it has entered a negative trajectory (increasing population ageing and reduced population renewal).
The U.S. is the only superpower on the planet because it manages to be a superpower in all four of the above areas we mentioned. China, for its part, has become a superpower in the economic, foreign trade, technology, and digital economy.
Unfortunately, in Russia, the old officials of the communist party’s top positions and the secret services took over the reins of power, creating friendly oligarchs to support them financially and control the Russian economy. Winning a global role for Russia would legitimize Russia’s current regime in the eyes of the Russian people.
The political problems of the Russian Opposition for anyone who dares to oppose President Vladimir Putin are well known. The change to the Russian Constitution has enabled the Russian President to become a lifelong President, while increasing repression in the opposition.
The domestic backdrop in Russia is composing with the steady decline in the real income of most Russians, while the Central Bank of Russia recently had to raise its interest rates from 4.50% to 5.00% (23 April 2021) and 5.50% (11 June 2021) to curb inflation.
In this context, it will be interesting until the EU’s strategy on its relations with Russia can be implemented.
