Many European countries are set to hold elections over the next 12 months. Across these nations, there is a notable surge in the popularity of right-wing populists, occurring at the expense of the established, “mainstream” governing parties.
The signal is clear. According to opinion polls, many European citizens across these countries are expressing dissatisfaction with European policies and are turning toward nationalist, far-right, and populist parties.
This growing affinity for such parties stems from the failure of European leadership to address major challenges facing Europeans—namely, the high cost of living and the erosion of household purchasing power driven by inflation; rising energy costs (exacerbated by the halt in Russian natural gas imports due to the war in Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, the conflict involving Iran); the issue of migration; European policies affecting the agricultural and industrial sectors; and, finally, “green growth” initiatives.
Collectively, these factors place an additional burden on the cost of living for European households in a variety of ways. On one hand, there is the high cost of living, which reduces disposable income; on the other, there are the taxes imposed to fund investments in green development, support for Ukraine, and defense spending.
Centralized European policies, mandated by the Commission across all member states, create additional challenges for virtually every productive sector. These policies have led to the decline of European industry, caused difficulties for European farmers and fishermen, created problems for importers and exporters, and resulted in specific issues across every sphere of economic activity.
In short,
the policies imposed by the Brussels bureaucracy on all member states place a burden on European citizens, who are responding politically by turning against the “establishment” parties in power.
Populists—primarily from the far-right, though not exclusively—advocate for governmental independence from the European Commission. They promise alternative, sovereign national policies that stand in direct opposition to the European policies currently in place.
These populist-proposed policies are ostensibly intended to improve the lives of citizens in each respective country; the specific narratives vary, however, depending on the unique problems faced by each nation.
The common denominator among all populist parties in Europe can be summarized by a simple, core message: “Our citizens first”—placing their own people above immigrants, multinational corporations, funding for Ukraine, and the broader spectrum of European policies.
The ultimate result is a significant strengthening of far-right parties, as the center-right and center-left forces in power are failing to adequately protect the interests of their citizens—at least as those citizens themselves perceive them.
In Germany, the far-right AfD is surging; in France, Marine Le Pen is gaining ground; in Spain, the People’s Party and the far-right Vox are on the rise; in Poland, there is the Confederation of the Polish Crown; and in Italy, a party positioned even further to the right than Meloni’s—the National Future of Italy—is gaining traction.
In short, we are witnessing a nationalist shift across the largest economies of the European Union—a development that will undoubtedly alter the balance of power within the EU, as well as the cohesion among its member states.
The “explosive” aspect regarding the 2027 elections
By the end of 2027, elections will have taken place in France, Spain, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Bulgaria, and Slovakia—likely in Italy as well, and, of course, in Greece. In every one of these cases, the same challenge will arise: the strengthening of populist parties, to varying degrees, in each country.
The current international climate—marked by ongoing wars—does not hinder the rise of populism; rather, it fuels it, as nationalist rhetoric tends to intensify during periods of geopolitical crisis.
Should all these events unfold concurrently, we should likely anticipate a different Europe—one characterized by significantly less coordination and the abandonment or relaxation of many policies currently in place.
How will this come about?
The President of the Commission is elected from the largest political group in the European Parliament, following proposals from heads of state and government. Subsequently, member states nominate Commissioners, who must also be approved by the European Parliament.
The Commissioners who make up the Commission are duty-bound to uphold European interests, rather than the national interests of their own countries.
Should far-right parties gain significant strength—or, even more so, win elections in various countries—the entire balance of power within the EU leadership would shift, and national interests would take precedence over European ones.
Policies—such as those concerning green development, foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine, and the issue of migration, as well as specific policies governing various economic activities—would be re-evaluated from a new perspective.
One might ask: shouldn’t this happen, given that Europeans face major problems that the current European leadership is unable to address? Unfortunately, this is precisely where the weakness of today’s European leadership lies.
By setting goals based on technocratic rather than political criteria and insisting on very strict rules—without demonstrating the flexibility required by the circumstances—it has lost the trust of a large segment of European citizens; these citizens are now turning toward extreme options, not merely as a form of protest, but also in the hope of securing representation within European decision-making centers that is better attuned to their needs.
