Yevgeny Prigozhin and about 5,000 of his men, arriving in Belarus, defied Russian President Vladimir Putin by refusing to sign any agreement to operate under the Russian Defense Ministry.
They will not fight in Ukraine
That is why the head of Russia’s Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said that Wagner’s forces will no longer fight in Ukraine. His statement came as the private military outfit stepped up its recruitment drive inside Russia, apparently without resistance from the authorities.
Meanwhile, in Belarus, work is progressing apace on the construction of a new Wagnerite base, which is located near the town of Osipovich, about 90 kilometers southeast of the capital Minsk.
There are some developments. One concerns Sergei Surovikin, also known as the “Armageddon general,” who serves as deputy to the head of Russia’s armed forces, Valery Gerasimov, and as a special adviser to Prigozhin and the Wagner group.
Russian media reported that he has been detained and a preliminary investigation is underway into his role in the failed coup.
Problems abroad
At the same time, the Russian government is seeking to replace Wagner’s leadership in the Central African Republic (CAR).
These are Dmitry Siti and Vitaly Perfilev, for whom the head of CAR has been informed that they will be fired. There is a backlash from the Central African Republic who claim they are extremely valuable and necessary for state security, but that may not change anything.
It also remains unanswered as to “which” of its forces will remain in the Central African Republic. That is, will the Wagnerites abroad be forced to sign contracts with the Russian military, or will they remain tied to Prigozhin?
There are no answers yet as to how the Russian government will manage the transition or whether deployed forces will obey. If they do not obey, we will have another confrontation with Prigozhin that affects foreign policy and Russian security operations outside of Russia.
Wagner derives a large part of her income from extreme corruption, starting in Africa where she launders CAR gold and diamonds.
Prigozhin made billions
Prigozhin also pocketed billions with a privileged relationship as a supplier to the Russian military, in addition to the billions flowing into the mercenary organization from the state coffers to pay for his troops and their operating costs.
This makes him possibly the richest oligarch in Russia – at least until now. No one has yet said anything about his bank accounts or real estate and business activities. Will they be confiscated by the state?
All this leaves us with two alternative and irreconcilable observations.
The first possible conclusion is that the Kremlin still sees Wagner as very important and useful, so it allows Prigozhin and his supporters to continue to oppose the Russian Ministry of Defense and operate independently outside Belarus.
Wagner is regrouping
The second is, on the contrary, that the Kremlin’s “solution” of “live and let you live” when it comes to Prigozhin is a complete failure as Wagner’s boss and his fighters are regrouping themselves, mostly outside Russia , continuing their operations in Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.
An airfield in al Qadim, Libya that Wagner uses was attacked in the last week of June by Turkish Akinci drones. Akinci is a twin-engine drone, the newest in the Bayraktar series.
It may be that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko sees the Russian mercenary base as a security force to help protect his presidency from opponents of his regime.
Lukashenko also exposed
Poland is known to provide military training to Belarusian dissidents, and perhaps Lukashenko does not trust his own military to protect him.
However, it is dangerous to leave your safety in the hands of a fighting force that you do not control and that could turn against you at any time.
As for Putin’s government, already humiliated by not fighting and neutralizing Wagner’s army, the situation looks much murkier.
Some of the Russian military bloggers, who have generally supported the military and the Russian president, are unhappy with the way the coup attempt was handled.
Some are beginning to turn against Putin and criticize the failure of the Russian military to take strong action against Wagner.
Support for Putin is faltering
This is the best barometer we have right now of Russian moods and, perhaps, support for the Russian president, which is faltering by the day.
A purge is reportedly underway inside Russia to get rid of Wagner supporters in the military, including military intelligence and within the government.
It is too early to tell how deep this will go, or whether Putin might risk removing top military and intelligence leaders, especially with the war raging in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Russian mercenary boss remains adamant and free to operate on his own behalf, as anyone can guess. Putin and Lukashenko’s deal with Prigozhin appears to be a total failure.
