The details of the agreement have been made public and the criticism is being made public so that everyone can read it and form an opinion.
Without examining any of the details of the agreement, one can immediately see the following: The American president signed with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, an agreement that concerns others.
The Agreement in Summary
Trump (USA) signed that
- Israel cannot attack Lebanon and that Lebanon cannot attack Israel.
- the Persian Gulf countries, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, will have to pay compensation worth 300 billion to Iran for the destruction caused mainly by the US, but also by Israel, with their attacks.
- The US, which formed this agreement and signed it, is simply moving away from Iran’s borders and will supervise its implementation from afar, along with others.
Pezeshkian (Iran) signed that
- Iran secured the right to protest strongly or intervene in the event of an Israeli-Lebanese conflict, a diplomatic right it did not have before the war.
- It also agreed that the other Gulf countries would pay for its reconstruction.
- And while it pledged not to impose fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, this commitment is valid for 60 days and there is no mention in the agreement whether or not it can impose fees after the 60 days are up.
- As for Iran’s enriched uranium, it has ensured that it will remain in the country and will not be delivered to a third country as initially discussed. However, it will have to dilute it so that it cannot be used to build nuclear weapons. It is recalled that Iran’s nuclear program was theoretically limited in all previous years, as long as Iran enriched its uranium.
This is roughly the agreement signed between the US and Iran, an agreement that concerns other countries, but which have not signed it, nor participated in Trump’s negotiation with the Iranians, and it is very doubtful how they are bound and will abide by an agreement between two others, which they did not sign.
The unanswered questions
The questions that arise about the possibility of implementing this agreement are reasonable, first of all what Israel will do if it receives a missile attack from Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon. What will happen when it reacts – which it is certain that it will react if it is attacked. And it is very likely, if not certain, that at some point it will receive a missile attack from Hezbollah, or that Israel will continue to attack Lebanon.
And we can assume that Benjamin Netanyahu is not satisfied with the preservation of uranium in Iran, although he has not commented on it so far. However, the Israeli opposition is commenting negatively on it and other major powers are not satisfied either, such as India, which has formed an alliance with Israel, considering Iran a center of support for global terrorism.
So far, there have been no official statements from the other countries involved. They will be soon and perhaps the landscape will begin to clear up. Moreover, the signing was essentially entered into a preliminary agreement, which ensures a ceasefire, that is, a cessation of attacks for 60 days until the final agreement is signed – if it is finally signed and has not already been torpedoed by developments in the Middle East.
The agreement is a gateway out of war for the US
Trump signed the deal to get out of this war that cost the US a lot, after he realized that inflation inside the US was causing him a big problem in the midterm elections in the fall and after he understood that the markets would not withstand the uncertainties of the war for long. He was looking for a way to disengage from the war and he found this deal. Iran urgently needed money and he secured it by stopping the economic sanctions.
In any relevant analysis, the moodiness of Trump must also be taken into account, who has proven throughout his term that he is constantly changing his opinions and attitudes towards everyone (for more analysis on the subject, please read the article titled “Trump’s fickle tactics and policies are permanent instability“). Therefore, even the observance of the agreements in this preliminary agreement, by Trump himself, who signed it, carries a significant risk of default.
The situation in the Middle East
In a more general view of things, regardless of the agreements that have been signed or will be signed in the future, the situation in the Middle East is not at all easy – and it is highly unlikely if not completely unlikely – to normalize.
Not only because of this devastating war for everyone, but mainly because of the centuries of conflict, the rivers of blood that have been shed in the region, the religious fanaticism of all the countries in the region and the very great international economic interest in the natural energy resources that these countries have.
The Middle East has been seething for millennia due to religious differences and in recent centuries it has always been at the center of political and economic planning and interventions by the West – overt and covert.
Now, in addition to the countries of the region and the Western countries, China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Egypt, and of course Turkey are also interested in the region.
In short, the entire world has interests, goals, and opinions about developments in the Middle East. And no one has participated in the negotiations, has not signed, or is bound by the agreement signed by Trump and Iran.
What will ultimately happen will soon be seen, from the observance or not of the ceasefire, from the final peace agreement that should be signed in two months, but also from the conditions that will prevail after 60 days.
However, believing that with a piece of paper signed by the US and Iran, the Middle East will finally calm down is naive. The ideal outcome, the maximum we can expect, is that the war will stop, even temporarily, and that navigation and the flow of natural gas, oil, and other raw materials in the region will be restored.
