The European maritime and geopolitical chessboard is entering an extremely dangerous phase, where economic sanctions are gradually turning into operational conflict at sea.
European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced during an informal meeting of defense ministers in Cyprus on June 8 that EU warships will now be allowed to board tankers carrying Russian oil under sanctions in the Mediterranean.
According to her, EU naval forces have already begun inspections, while the new framework is part of the effort to “restrict Russia’s activities” and exchange “best practices” between member states.
The boardings of the so-called “shadow tankers” of the “shadow Russian fleet” will take place as part of Operation IRINI, which was initially established in 2020 to enforce the arms embargo on Libya, but has now been adapted to also serve the imposition of economic countermeasures against Russia. However, the 27 member states participating in the mission have not yet officially positioned themselves.
At the same time, Russia is moving towards full militarization. Moscow adopted a new framework on immunity from prosecution, and Vladimir Putin signed amendments to the laws “On Defense” and “On Citizenship of the Russian Federation”, allowing the president to use the Russian armed forces abroad to “protect Russian citizens” who are arrested or prosecuted by foreign or international courts.
Moscow is now preparing, as it says, to “counter declared piracy,” with most of the ships in the shadow fleet flying flags of convenience (Panama, Gabon, Liberia), but linked to Russian shipowners. The new Russian legislation is no longer based on the ship’s flag but on the nationality of the crew, creating an extremely dangerous precedent.
In this context, any boarding of a tanker protected by Russian forces or private security groups by European special forces could be considered an “attack,” giving the right to use deadly force. The most worrying element concerns the possible geographical extension of the measure.
Although the decision concerns the Mediterranean Sea, it is estimated that it may soon be extended to the Baltic Sea, which has already become a de facto “internal NATO sea.” For Russia, this is a critical corridor to Kaliningrad and a key export artery from the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.
There have already been incidents of tension, most notably the case of the Russian natural gas tanker Arctic Metagaz, where the crew was evacuated after an attack.
The Russian Ministry of Transport has described the incident as “maritime piracy”, blaming Ukraine and attributing “complicity” to EU countries. France has been particularly active in seizing tankers, having already made four arrests, while Britain recently refused to intercept ships of the shadow fleet in the English Channel. At the same time, the Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean is being reinforced by forces stationed in Tartus, Syria.
Instability has become the new “constant”
Global shipping has stopped treating geopolitical crises as temporary and isolated events. Instead, industry leaders are adapting to a constant environment of tension and uncertainty, where conflict and threats are now a permanent part of business reality.
In recent years, successive crises, from the war in Ukraine and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, have brought issues of maritime safety and freedom of navigation to the forefront of shipping companies’ strategies.
The current period is characterized by the simultaneous emergence of multiple crises. These are no longer local or isolated tensions, but a global challenge to the international rulebook, forcing the industry to adopt a new way of operating.
This shift is also reflected in the guidelines of international organizations. BIMCO has issued new guidelines for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with detailed lists of preparations for extreme scenarios such as missile and drone attacks, GPS jamming, minelaying or attempted sabotage. Shipowners are now planning for all possible contingencies in order to reduce the risk of loss of life and ships.
Geopolitical tension has transformed the sea into an area of increased risk. Shipping is now under attack in many different parts of the world, from the Arctic to the South China Sea. A rapid realignment of global power is taking place, which has become the new normal, with ships being transformed into tools of pressure and influence.
In addition to armed conflicts, the so-called “Russian shadow fleet”, a network of hundreds of tankers operating outside international standards and controls, is also of particular concern. Its existence has greatly destabilized the tanker market and the global regulatory framework, with impacts that are expected to be long-term.
The speed of developments requires constant adaptation. Shipping companies are called upon to enhance their flexibility both in their fleet and in their decision-making and technological infrastructure.
The daily life of ship managers is dominated by sudden changes in regulations and sanctions, the need to avoid dangerous areas and fuel shortages that lead to constant re-planning of routes.
All this uncertainty also directly affects investment decisions, with some large companies delaying new ship orders in order to maintain liquidity.
