The mainstream media won’t say it yet, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that the US is losing the war in Iran. The situation is so dire that we predict that Trump will try to cut losses and withdraw within days. Trump and his advisers will continue to try to claim victory, but there’s no reason to believe their claims.
To put it simply, Iran’s military capabilities have shocked the US. Iran has penetrated the most advanced missile defense systems with cheap drones, killing or wounding about 150 US soldiers so far. The US is unable to protect its military and diplomatic facilities in the region from a country whose military was already severely weakened by the twelve-day war a few months ago. American embassies in the region, including those in Saudi Arabia, are closing. American soldiers are being housed in hotels to minimize the risk of attacks. Secretary of War Hegseth’s claims that the US is “winning” sound implausible. They resemble the frighteningly optimistic statements of generals in the Vietnam War, before it became so disastrous that defeat had to be accepted.
Let’s examine the key points of the US’s flawed strategy.
- Iran’s leadership is as united as ever
After one of the most intense short-term airstrikes in world history, Iran’s leadership remains solid. There are no defections in the military and virtually no street protests, except against the US and Israel. The majority of the population stands behind their new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. The fact that Iran’s political elite has survived so united is an extraordinary achievement for a regime that was supposedly on the verge of collapse. It is also a major geopolitical setback for the US.
- Iran’s military capabilities are far greater than expected
Iran has prepared for this moment by fending off attack during the 12-day Israeli-American bombing campaign of the country last year and by withholding much of its firepower. The Iranian government is quietly producing thousands of cheap but sophisticated drones in makeshift factories that outmaneuver multi-billion dollar missile defense systems from Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. It is impossible for the US and Israel to destroy these capabilities from the air. Since the war began on February 28, Iran has attacked at least ten countries in the region. It has attacked both American and Israeli military bases and the capitals of almost every Persian Gulf state. It is targeting radar systems that serve as “the eyes of air defense in the Middle East.” The ability of the US and its allies to track incoming missiles has been severely reduced. The US stockpile of major missiles and interceptors has been severely decimated.
- Iran has massively increased global oil prices
Through clever tactics, it is causing enormous damage to the global economy. The country controls the strategically important bottleneck through which 20% of the world’s oil must be transported on its way to market. The Strait of Hormuz is now closed indefinitely. Full tankers are anchored and have no way to continue. Anyone who dares to pass through will be destroyed anyway. Iraq and Oman closed their oil terminals a few days ago. With this strategy, Iran has increased the prices of oil, natural gas, plastics and fertilizers worldwide. This has further worsened Trump’s political chances ahead of the US midterm elections. It was the naive Trump who gave Iran this power by allowing himself to be dragged into a war by the messianic religious extremists who rule Israel. After these developments, we must admit that Trump’s personal weaknesses are actually worse than most assume. In addition to being an extreme narcissist (which is generally obvious), he is also gullible and really quite narrow-minded on political issues.
- We are in a regional war involving at least 20 countries, which have sent their armed forces to the region
France has sent a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. British warships are also in the region. Greece and Turkey have moved troops to Cyprus. Greece under the pretext of defending the Greek Cypriots. Australia is supplying radar to the United Arab Emirates. Russia is sharing important intelligence information with the Iranian military. China is supporting Iran financially and with war material. Gulf states have reduced oil production or stopped it altogether because there is no way to get the oil to market. Regardless of what Trump does, there is a possibility that Iran’s response will push the price of oil to $200 a barrel, according to the flagship of capitalism, the Wall Street Journal.
- The consequences for International Law are devastating
It was illegal for the US and Israel to bomb Iran in the first place. It is unquestionably a violation of International Law for one country to invade another without evidence of an imminent attack (which does not exist) or without authorization from the UN Security Council (which also does not exist). The US case for war with Iran is even more ephemeral than it was in the case of Iraq, when Secretary of State Powell presented a false test tube to the UN Security Council. The case for the invasion of Iraq was based on lies, and the Trump administration’s case for war with Iran was simply nonexistent. To portray Iran as a threat to the US, Trump claimed out of thin air that the Ayatollah was plotting an assassination attempt on him. The monstrous lie was immediately assimilated by NATO vassals and Arab bystanders, even if no one believes it.
This war that Trump has started for Israel carries many risks for the US. Let’s not forget: The US could not defeat North Korea and China in the Korean War. The US lost the Vietnam War. The US could not defeat a few thousand lightly armed Taliban in Afghanistan. The likelihood of the US defeating a country as large and seemingly as united as Iran is slim. Trump’s blatant incompetence makes the situation worse. The US government and one of the most powerful militaries in the world are under the control of a phony charlatan.
The Trump administration has ignored the fundamental rule of war strategy: The “end” of a war is the hardest part of a conflict. The exit strategy is more important than momentum. And most importantly: Don’t get carried away by the arrogance of the moment without considering the long-term consequences.
Note: The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Kaine, reportedly warned Trump against starting a war for which he had not built up sufficient stockpiles of weapons. But Trump was convinced, probably by Netanyahu, that a few missiles and bombs would be enough and that the collapse of the Iranian government would make it possible to install a puppet ruler, like the son of the last Shah, Reza Pahlavi.
