The fierce military strike by Israel and the US against the Islamic Republic of Iran is underway. With the completion of the first day, the difference in the capabilities of the two adversaries may be visible, but it would be too early and frivolous to decide whether the great goal of overthrowing the regime will ultimately be achieved.
Opinions are certainly divided as to who has the best chance of achieving the goals in their favor. The only thing that seems certain is that this is a “fight to the end.” The rhetoric is logically very sharp, giving the impression that there is no longer any room for diplomacy. The reality that will be formed on the ground is the one that will determine developments. Let us look at some key observations, as they emerged from the first day of operations.
Israel and the US seem to have succeeded once again in surprising the Islamic Republic regarding the timing of the start of the operations. There are no military operations without the attacker having attempted to achieve surprise. The signs that something was coming were there, as developments had been recorded that preceded the operations.
The surprise could not have been strategic, as everyone knew that something was coming. Even in the last hours, however, the impression was given that there were at least a few hours before the operations began. The tactical surprise was achieved with the general order being given early in the morning.
If it is true that the first Israeli strike concerned a meeting of top Iranian leaders, then the strategy of “beheading the leadership” was served in the best way. Among others, the Minister of Defense, the head of the Revolutionary Guards and the Minister of Information are reported to be dead.
The same applies to the leveling of the house of the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The tactical surprise was completely successful. Obviously, the supreme – emblematic – leader of Iran would be transferred to a safe location. The fact that this had not yet happened means that the regime believed that it still had time. The same applies to the other alleged losses (please also read the analysis titled “US-Iran negotiations before the attack on Iran showed Russia how the “dirty” game is being played“).
What follows…
However, if the information is true, it means two things. First, that the regime was left headless from the beginning of the operations. The second, however, is equally or even more important: In such circumstances, the reins do not pass into the hands of moderates, as long as this category exists within Iran, and especially in times of war. Leadership passes, almost automatically, to the regime’s hardliners.
The most fanatical, as the Revolutionary Guards are considered. Given their broader Islamic-nationalist ideology, they do not intend to surrender. It is highly likely that the assumption of responsibility by the “hardliners” led to the geographical expansion of the theocratic regime’s retaliation and the moves to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The confrontation over this critical strait for the international energy balance of global shipping will be fierce. Aided by the conditions of air dominance in which they operate, the mainly American forces are striking Iran’s naval forces with terrifying cruelty, in order to neutralize the possibility of closing Hormuz. However, experienced observers point out that it may be enough to throw mines into the sea from land and let the sea currents do the work…
Shiites vs. Sunnis?
The geographical expansion of the conflicts included almost all of the Arab countries in the region, even Saudi Arabia. Incidentally, this action is compatible with the stance of hardline Shiites towards the Sunnis. On both sides, they are considered more hated enemies than even the Israelis!
Except for Oman, which is credited by Tehran with the active mediating role it took on, in an effort to achieve a diplomatic solution that would prevent the conflict at the last minute. It is recalled that American forces do not have a permanent military base in Oman, although they have defense agreements that ensure them access – mainly regarding logistical support – to the RAFO air base on the island of Masirah, which belongs to it.
The riddle of “politics” within the regime
Another observation, however, is the certainty of the enormous penetration of the Israeli -mainly- secret services in Iran. The information that appears to have formed the basis of the planning of the operations. The impression is given that the Israeli informants are omnipresent, like shadows and have a way of conveying very accurate information that is immediately utilized.
Who could confirm that the informants do not also contain elements of the theocratic regime with their own motives, selfish or as a result of some blackmail, so that they see a different future, more aligned with the perspective of the attackers? Is there a repetition of the model of the recent intervention in Venezuela?
Given this, it means that even the most hard-line elements of the regime have failed to prevent its erosion from within. This is what calls into question a generally accepted principle – based on historical experience – that without “boots on the ground”, i.e. ground troops on the territory of the country, regime overthrow is not possible. Will it soon be proven… that there is a first time for everything? That there is an alternative and effective strategy?
Around midnight, the Iranian regime had begun to increase the cost to Israel, although as in the previous conflict the percentage of successful penetration of the Israeli air defense is very small. However, television images are a very powerful weapon for influencing international public opinion, but mainly to influence the attitude of the population in the target country.
It could be assumed that the attacking countries would not have launched this operation if there was no certainty of sufficient interceptor missiles for the various levels of air defense. On the other hand, in the case of Iran, there is always ambiguity about the percentage of replacement of losses from the previous round of the conflict. It will show…
The development of this case between Israel and Iran shows a “marathon”, not a classic race – sprint, in terms of classic sports. However, it is equally reasonable to ask oneself how many of the tens of kilometers of this peculiar marathon have the Israelis traveled. Because this preparatory work will determine a lot.
Finally, the long duration of this conflict is also somewhat reminiscent of the experience with… earthquakes. A building, an apartment building, how many times will it withstand seismic vibrations of long duration and strength of 8 on the Richter scale? If we replace the “apartment building” with the theocratic regime, we may have a reasonable explanation for the Israeli reasoning… which convinced Trump’s USA. Let’s see.
