Sometimes, a single sentence is enough to reveal the whole truth. When Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov admitted that his ministry inherited “a deficit of millions, two million insubordinates and hundreds of thousands AWOL,” he wasn’t just giving a technical update. He was opening a window into a reality that Kiev has been trying to keep out of the spotlight for years.
The numbers are relentless. Some 200,000 soldiers have deserted their units. Other sources, such as Ukrainska Pravda, put the figure closer to 300,000. And as if that weren’t enough, 2 million men are avoiding conscription. We’re not talking about isolated incidents. We’re talking about a society that has reached its limits — and it’s showing it in the most brutal way possible.
The government is banning men from leaving the country. It’s recruiting older and older men. It hunts down the unruly on the streets, at the borders, and even in hospitals. These are not signs of a state that is “enduring.” They are signs of a regime that is struggling to stay alive.
The demographic wound that will not heal
Ukraine has lost — in every possible way — a huge part of its younger generation. Dead on the front, wounded, deserters, fugitives, refugees. Millions of women and children have fled abroad. The birth rate has plummeted. The population is shrinking at a rate reminiscent of post-war societies. And here is the harshest point: even if the war were to end tomorrow, the damage has already been done. A country can rebuild roads, factories, bridges. But it cannot easily rebuild a lost generation. Demographic collapse is not collateral damage; it is strategic defeat in slow motion.
The West and the dangerous experiment with frozen Russian funds
Against this backdrop, the European Union is considering using frozen Russian state funds to finance Ukraine. The idea sounds simple, almost “fair.” In practice, however, it opens a door that will be difficult to close.
- Seizing state assets without an international court order:
- undermines confidence in the European financial system
- sets a dangerous precedent for the future
- encourages other powers to do the same
- sends a message to third countries that their reserves are not safe
It is no coincidence that many member states are hesitant. Not because they do not want to help Kiev, but because they see the institutional cliff ahead.
A crossroads with no easy exits
Ukraine is at a point where military, demographic and economic realities collide. The West can keep sending weapons and money, but it cannot solve the main problem: the country no longer has enough people to continue a war of attrition indefinitely.
And the more time passes, the more difficult the next day becomes. Not only for Ukraine, but also for the Europe that supports it — economically, politically, institutionally.
The real question is: What will be left of Ukraine when the war is over? And who will really be responsible when an entire generation has been lost, and the most productive one at that?
