Today’s US operation in Venezuela and Donald Trump’s announcement that Nicolas Maduro has been “captured and taken out of the country” is not simply regime change by force. It is a move that strikes, indirectly but in a highly calculated manner, at China’s economic core – energy security, refining costs, and the credibility of Chinese trade networks operating on the margins of sanctions.
Why is Venezuela a “Chinese Corridor”?
Since 2020, Venezuelan crude has become a front-line feeder to Asia and especially China—not because Beijing “loved” Caracas, but because sanctions and exclusion from Western markets have pushed Venezuela toward the only buyer with risk tolerance and the ability to absorb “heavy” barrels. The result has been a model where part of the flows function as trade and part as “oil payment” for services, purchases, and—crucially—debt service to China. Today’s move by the US in Caracas shows that for Washington and President Trump, the enemy is one and obstacles must be removed at a high cost to the adversary…
The key to understanding the implications of US intervention on foreign soil is not only what is formally prohibited, but what can travel at sea… In recent days, the US Treasury Department has “stepped up” by targeting networks it accuses of helping Venezuela circumvent sanctions. And given the circumstances, this particular move puts China in the frame in a “surgical” way. Tankers used on Venezuela-China routes for repayments and swap arrangements – that is, not just trade, but financial oxygen. With Maduro out of the way, no agreement that has his signature is already in effect (for more analysis on the subject, read the article titled “Chinese tankers break blockade and head to Venezuela“).
“Arrest” as a credibility shock – not just a power shock
Today’s business adds a new element: the risk is no longer just legal (sanctions) or commercial (insurance/banking). It is political and operational: “the source country can be destabilized overnight.”
For Beijing, this translates into three practical costs:
- Risk premium on transportation (insurance, freight, rerouting).
- Loss of predictability in the blends of heavy crude that suit specific refineries.
- Forced substitution by other suppliers of heavy crude, usually more expensive or politically more “charged.”
The essence of Trump’s move
If Trump only wanted to punish the Maduro regime, a continuation of traditional pressure would be enough. Escalating to an operation leading to an “arrest” has a different message:
- To Venezuela: “no normality.”
- To China: “no safe channel.”
- To Iran: “if you want to exist as a regime, stop supplying oil to China.”
- To Russia: “if you are the only one supplying oil to China, you will be strangled.”
To Tehran: Your turn is coming
The US moves against Venezuelan oil and its transport have already had a drastic impact on exports. So today’s operation is not isolated from the energy side – it is the political-military culmination of a line that tightens the noose where China hurts: in supply, in costs, in an economy that has not been shaken by the huge US tariffs.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, with estimates based on official energy data placing these reserves at around 303 billion barrels of crude oil — more than any other country in the world. These reserves account for a significant proportion (around 17-20%) of global oil reserves and are located mainly in the Orinoco Basin, one of the largest concentrations of heavy and ultra-heavy crude on the planet. Despite the size and strategic importance of these resources, production and export have been significantly affected by years of underinvestment, management problems and international sanctions, with the result that actual economic exploitation falls far short of the theoretical potential of the reserves.
Venezuela, rich in oil, natural gas, coal and precious metals, with 80% of its electricity coming from hydroelectric power, could be a model of prosperity. On the contrary, under Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro it has sunk into poverty, destitution and mass migration. Their populist regime has sucked the people out with zero gasoline prices, creating an illusion of prosperity and wasting resources. Venezuelans drive around in monstrous cars, while they lack education, healthcare and medicines. Democracy has been undermined; elections are being stolen, independent institutions are being abolished, the judiciary is being subordinated to power. The economy is collapsing: hyperinflation, shortages of basic goods, deprivation of food and material infrastructure. Natural resources are used for state subsidies and cheap gasoline, not for sustainable development. Corruption is rampant, public funds are diverted to private pockets, and control mechanisms are undermined. Laxity towards organized crime and drugs is exacerbating the social crisis. The roads are dangerous, violence is commonplace, and trust in the state is eroding. Citizens live in conditions of deprivation, hunger, and false prosperity, trapped in a society that is deteriorating and degrading. Venezuela is an example of the disastrous management of natural resources and power. The Chavez-Maduro regime has failed to provide basic rights, while keeping the people in deception and dependence. Until the political course changes, the country will remain trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty, corruption, and social impoverishment.
Russia deeply in the eye of the “Εagle”
Congratulations President Putin. The Alaska agreement with Trump is great. You (USA) have Venezuela, we (Russia) have Ukraine. However, when Iran is also lost as an oil supplier to China, Russia will be left alone against the West. Sooner or later, the Chinese will understand that if they want secure energy sources, they will have to acquire the power to intervene militarily throughout the world. That is, they will have to build aircraft carriers, which will bring them into direct conflict with the USA. The world has begun to smell gunpowder.
