China has indeed issued a stern warning to the US about Venezuela, denouncing military moves in the Caribbean as a threat to the country’s sovereignty. Beijing supports Maduro because of its huge financial interests in Venezuela’s oil sector.
The US has reportedly deployed warships and thousands of troops to the Caribbean, presenting the operation as a defense against drug cartels. However, China and Venezuela see it as cover for an upcoming military intervention against Venezuela. Maduro has also been directly and openly targeted by the US.
China, a major investor in Venezuela, has just officially reacted. President Xi Jinping sent a message of support to Maduro, calling China and Venezuela “close friends and good partners” and condemning foreign interference.
“China and Venezuela are close friends, dear brothers and good partners. China will continue to support Venezuela in defending its sovereignty and national security, national dignity and social stability. We reject interference by external forces in Venezuela’s internal affairs under any pretext.” President Xi Jinping
China is Venezuela’s largest creditor, with loans of more than $60 billion since 2007, mostly secured by oil. State-owned companies such as CNPC and Sinopec have significant stakes in oil fields. Despite US sanctions, Venezuela supplied China with about 200,000 barrels of oil per day in 2025, a sign of how critical their relationship is.
President Trump has threatened “very soon” ground and air strikes if Venezuela does not hand over control of oil fields in the Orinoco, raising the risk of war. Russia and Iran are providing military assistance to Maduro, while China is calling for de-escalation. Latin American leaders such as Lula and Petro are trying to mediate.
China sees Venezuela not only as an economic partner but also as a battleground for confrontation with the US, sending a message that it will not tolerate military intervention in Washington’s “backyard.”
President Xi Jinping’s warning to the US is not a simple diplomatic statement; it is a protection of investment and strategic interests. Venezuela is a critical link in Beijing’s energy security, and any US military action could trigger a major international crisis involving multiple powers.
US-Venezuela tensions have already caused oil prices to rise and increased uncertainty in energy markets. This has a direct impact on Europe, which is import-dependent and vulnerable to fluctuations.
Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves (1–1.1 million barrels/day). A military conflict or stricter sanctions could certainly reduce supply drastically.
Recent US sanctions and 25% tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil have already shaken the market, with analysts predicting a rise in Brent and diesel prices.
A full-scale military intervention would freeze investment and cause a knock-on effect on insurance, transport and logistics, leading to a surge in prices.
Europe imports much of its energy. Instability in Venezuela, combined with restrictions from Russia and the Middle East, is increasing pressure on European markets. According to analysts, a “shock” situation in Venezuela could increase not only oil prices but also food prices, due to increased transportation and production costs. Countries such as the Netherlands, with large ports and refineries, are at the center of the impact, as trade flows are directly affected.
What is expected?
In the short term, we expect price volatility with possible sudden increases. In the medium term, and if the crisis continues, Europe will be forced to turn to alternative suppliers (e.g. Middle East, Africa). In the long term, the crisis reinforces the need for energy diversification and investment in renewable sources, in order to reduce dependence on geopolitically vulnerable regions. Something that the European leadership does not seem to understand and seems tightly tied to the American galley that brings the “good” gas from the USA.
In short: The US-Venezuela crisis with China’s involvement is not only regional; it has global consequences. For Europe, it means more expensive energy, inflation and a greater need for strategic energy independence.
