The Trump-Erdogan meeting at the White House has concluded. A few hours later, an assessment can be made and the first estimates can be formulated with all reservations. The impressions created certainly cannot be erased and have their own importance. If the US confirms anything, it is that it is not ready to abandon Turkey. The great game of Eurasia is underway and Washington does not intend to hand over Ankara to Moscow and Beijing. The Mediterranean region, however, mainly because of Israel but not only, seems to be a different matter.
It should be noted that for now at least, beyond the communication aspect, Erdogan and Turkey have not gained anything. They have only given. The agreements for American liquefied shale natural gas (LNG) and the hundreds of civil aircraft from Boeing, total several tens of billions of dollars. If the conditions and the Memorandum of Cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy mature, they will add a couple of tens of billions of dollars more.
In practice, this means that it is not only Washington that is not ready to move away from Ankara. The opposite is also true. The eternal haggling that Turkish diplomacy and Erdogan, personally, are drawn into in all directions, will continue with the US. In this context, the Turkish tactic of creating issues that are then turned into diplomatic “papers” to be exchanged at the negotiating table is understandable. And let us keep this in mind in Greece as well.
It is said in the reports that one condition for Turkey to return to the fifth-generation F-35 fighter program will be to stop buying oil from Russia. Although a complete cessation of energy trade between Ankara and Moscow is unlikely, it is most likely that the percentage of Turkey’s energy needs covered by Russia will be affected.
Money makes the world go ’round
The conclusion is easy to draw. He who has never followed the allied policy within NATO, is still the winner! As he consistently does on all fronts, including the Greek-Turkish ones, and of course his relations with Russia, and they benefit him! It is safe to predict that the Turkish goal will be to receive the compensation, not by interrupting the supply of Russian oil and natural gas, but by limiting it! Besides, these are easy to agree on, but very difficult to implement. What the outcome will be remains to be seen.
The day after the Trump-Erdogan meeting, if anything is confirmed, it is the general validity of the saying “money talks, bullshit walks”! And this is more true than ever with Trump’s USA. Consequently, one could argue that Erdogan was told that the bill for the damage to the American economy from Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program, which he said would buy 100+ aircraft, falls on him!
Regarding the Eastern Mediterranean region, two telegraphic observations. The first is that the boasting in Greece about the “influence purchase” due to the procurement of 1+1 (the second in the future) squadron of F-35 fighter jets by the Air Force, lacks seriousness. Fortunately, geopolitics is something much broader than the arms trade. Otherwise, the Greeks would be lost in all fields.
The second observation concerns the fact that Trump’s first phone call after the meeting with Erdogan was to Netanyahu. It is not unlikely that he started the conversation by telling him… “I picked him up”! Of course, this is also half-truth. In Israel, they understand the balances very well. Next comes the Trump-Netanyahu meeting that will create new data.
Now the hard times begin…
The negotiation with Turkey cannot be exclusively bilateral and is only just beginning. Everyone noticed that Erdogan diligently avoided making any reference to Netanyahu and the war in Gaza, his favorite topic in his public interventions.
The Israelis are not joking and their influence in the centers of power in Washington is very strong. Also, the reactions worldwide on the issue of Gaza have been recorded and are troubling many within Israel as well. This fact, in the short term, may escalate the war in Gaza. Not the opposite. Who can deny that the Israeli leadership is convinced that this is their last chance to eradicate the Hamas problem once and for all, before facing another policy from Washington, under the leadership of another president?
In this shifting sand, Trump is trying to find an arrangement that will allow Turkey to return to the F-35 program. In recent days, Washington announced its intention to finance a new arms package for Israel, in addition to the annual free aid of $3.8 billion for a decade ($38 billion in total).
The sale of 30 Apache attack helicopters ($3.8 billion) and 3,250 JLTV military vehicles ($1.9 billion) is being promoted, with a total value of $6.4 billion (the rest is $750 million for support)! Is this intention part of the negotiation package, with the aim of convincing Jerusalem to give the green light for Turkey to return to the F-35 program? And if so, how will Netanyahu deal with this temptation?
The Russian S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems that Turkey has purchased, the removal of which is -so far- a basic condition for the Turks’ return to the F-35, have never been removed from the picture. Given this, the emphatic inclusion of the issue of the procurement of the corresponding American Patriot system seems to have its own significance.
Although the usual Turkish claim that the Russian S-400s were procured because the Americans “refused to sell it Patriot” is false, since the truth is that Ankara desired a full transfer of know-how, while they did not hesitate to mock (!) the Chinese who had agreed to sell them the HQ-9s, satisfying all Turkish demands, the return of the Patriots to the table seems to be linked to the S-400s.
The favorable situation
How the Americans will handle it remains to be seen. The Russians have suffered serious losses of such systems on the Ukrainian front and the incentive to repurchase them, in theory, is stronger than ever. Alternatively, they also have customers (e.g. India) that could welcome them. At this point, however, it is worth expressing a thought: Commercially, not removing the S-400s from the Turkish arsenal and at the same time Ankara acquiring the F-35s could pave the way for their promotion in India as well…
The Turks, it is known, integrate Turkish systems wherever they can in the platforms they procure. The Israelis do the same. Could an F-35 with Turkish subsystems be the compromise that will pave the way for its integration into the Turkish arsenal? Because the Israeli defense industry is considered much more technologically advanced? Let’s see…
