Jordan’s King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein has announced since a week that he intends to withdraw Jordan from “The Israel–Jordan Peace Treaty” or in full “Treaty of Peace Between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan” (1994) knowing that such an option would most likely lead his country into an active military confrontation with Israel.
In any case, Israel responded immediately to hearing this challenge by announcing its readiness to send its armoured battle tanks brigades to Jordan and if it is imposed by the developments.
by T.C.
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Source: http:www.un.org/Debts/Cartographic/map/profile/Israel.opdf, Author: UN
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The reasons that lead Jordan to this choice
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that after July 1st he will join Israeli sovereignty:
1. firstly, the territories of the West Bank. In this case the annexation of the settlements will officially deprive any future Palestinian state of minimum territorial continuity while provoking the ire of the Palestinians and their allies (please read the analysis entitled «Mate Movement in the Geopolitical Chessboard or Non-Extreme Version for Palestine Liberation Organization»).
2. secondly, the Jordan Valley, provoking the reaction of the King of Jordan who wants to further escalate the tension by withdrawing Jordan from the Peace Treaty with Israel.
Jordan, along with Iran and Turkey, believe that Russia, in such a case where Jordan withdraws from the Peace Treaty with Israel, will intervene in favour of Jordan in the whole situation by supporting them militarily and diplomatically by sending its own delegation to mediate between Israel and Jordan.
Jordan is supported by other Middle Eastern countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Palestine. The aim of all these coalitions of states at both diplomatic and military level is to obtain super-weaponry in relation to Israel, which in every way will be able to strike throughout the territory of Israel, creating a “saturation” in Israel’s anti-aircraft/missile defense.
Will Israel make the move of the highest of risk?
At the same time, the “omens” do not seem to be pro-Israel currently as the US is “pulling the carpet” of Israel and specifically the political positions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, mainly for two causes:
1. The U.S. and after the “pull of the carpet” they did to its former allies Kurds in Syria in October 2019, leaving them at the mercy of the Turkish armed forces, have every reason to fear that they will lose credibility again by clashing with almost all Arab states in the Middle East.
2. The campaign so far for the November 2020 US election shows a high degree of liquidity and uncertainty as to their outcome. Surely current US President Donald Trump would support Israel in such a decision on new land annexations.
And if Democrats prevail in the polls, they will be obliged in the future, to restore Pax Americana as new US governors, to appear as “pacifists” mocking any stance Donald Trump is trying to take.
The usual suspect in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which is Turkey, not only foments the conflict between Jordan and the other Arab states against Israel, but also threatens a holy war against Israel if this is required by the conditions and given that Turkey has assumed or claims the role of “Father” for the Palestinians and more generally for the Islamic populations of the Middle East.
Turkey’s insidious role is to finance and use mercenary groups in every country in the Middle East to spark social uprisings that create the necessary climate for public opinion in these countries with the aim of then exerting political pressure on the respective governments to adopt Turkey’s positions and, of course, extreme positions vis-à-vis Turkey’s opponents.
Iran, and given that it has recently agreed with the US to jointly accept a Prime Minister in Iraq, expects the US to “soften” economic sanctions so far and it is not in its interest to play a leading role but a secondary and supportive role in this potential conflict against Israel (please read the analysis entitled «The New Government in Iraq Shows The Road of Cooperation Between US And Iran».
Photo by the website www.123rf.com
The role of Turkey and Russia
Russia has every reason to support this coalition of Arab states that support Jordan, and given that if Israel annexes these disputed territories of the West Bank and Jordan Valley, and in the case starts of a war conflict will give Russia the opportunity to enter the negotiating table against Israel by trying together with the other “partners” to impose a passive if not neutral role on Israel in the region.
In this case, the oil and natural gas reserves from Israel’s EEZ (Economic exclusive Zone) will be indirectly controlled by Russia, which will oblige Israel to transfer its specific reserves to the EU in land pipelines passing through Turkish territory.
Then Israel will have become an economic and political satellite of Turkey and Russia and with all that this entails in terms of its attitude to its conflicts with its neighbouring Arab states.
Russia’s interest is for the EU to remain dependent on Russia’s natural gas and oil. This will be achieved when Israel’s natural gas is transported through Syria and Turkish territory equally. This is the common interests of Turkey and Russia for the Eastern Mediterranean.
The prevalence of Turkey and Russia in the civil war in Libya creates the conditions for Israel’s political economic and military encirclement in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, cancelling the creation of the East Med subsea pipeline. While Turkey will gain access to coveted oil, which it has not achieved it in the Northern Iraq with the annexation of Mosul.
At the same time Russia has won a competition for the extraction of natural gas and oil in the EEZ of Egypt. Simultaneously, the US through Turkey will be able to create a thorn in the EU’s underbelly by using it so that the EU cannot be politically (migration problem) and militarily independent from the US.
Egypt will be the next victim of this Turkish and Russian arc in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean respectively and after the partition of Libya and given the extreme poverty that prevails in an overwhelming proportion of the Egyptian people.
Extreme poverty will sooner or later give way to overthrow Egypt’s current government and possibly replace it with a government of the Muslim Brotherhood-as it did in Iran in 1979 with the Islamic revolution-that is fanatical and friendly in Turkey.
The right strategy for Israel
On the other hand, we must not forget that sooner or later a future US President and more generally the corresponding future political staff of the US President, coming to terms with the other major states of the world and dividing the planet into spheres of influence, and if US isolationism continues, they will cease to support Israel in its conflicts with other Arab states.
The appropriately correct and long-term strategy for Israel, and always in our personal opinion, is for the entire political world of Israel to choose the implementation of another strategy that will provide it with permanent political, economic and geopolitical cover in the ever-fluid geopolitical environment of Middle East.
More specifically, first, Israel should not annex the disputed territories of the West Bank and Jordan Valley. Israel then will have to apply officially to become a full member-country of the EU and the Eurozone. More specifically, this strategy achieves for Israel:
1. It gains the necessary time without triggering a situation that can be done uncontrollable for many countries in the Middle East region.
2. With its application to become a full member of the EU and the Eurozone, Israel will immediately become accepted, because its economy is in good shape (Government Bond 10Yield 0.67, Unemployment rate 3,3%, Inflation Rate -1,6%, Basic Interest Rate 0,1%) and at the same time its economy complies with the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty (Government Debt to GDP 59,9%, Inflation Rate -1,6%, Basic Interest Rate 0,1%).
3. Israel’s population is small compared to the populations of other countries such as Turkey-Turkey has applied to become an EU member, which in this case if Turkey became a member of the EU would fill the Northern Europe with millions of Turkish migrants seeking a better life.
4. Europe’s electrical interconnection with Israel through the Euro Asia Interconnector, makes its Israel was an energy-full member of the EU, stopping the regime where it existed until then where Israel appeared as an isolated energy island through its energy isolation from its neighbouring countries.
This energy link will also be further strengthened by the creation of the East Med pipeline that will transport undersea natural gas from Israel to Europe.
5. The entry of Israel as a full member of the EU and the Eurozone creates a common EEZ with the corresponding EEZ of two other full-member Eurozone and EU countries (Cyprus and Greece) from which will pass the East Med undersea gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Israel to Europe.
6. There is a matte move on the geopolitical chessboard because Israel becomes an official EU energy supplier that will also be a full member of EU, and Egypt’s EEZ is not required to take into account for the creation of the East Med pipeline, where Egypt wants to become the EU’s official energy supplier (further EU dependency from Islamic state).
7. Israel succeeds in being economically, politically, and militarily supported by the EU with whatever this means for future geopolitical balances in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
If Israel annexes the disputed territories of the West Bank and Jordan Valley, it will not be able to become a member of the EU because Northern Cyprus is annexed by Turkey and is the great wound of Turkey that is not allowed to become a member of the EU.
We believe that the political world of Israel will be able to ensure peace and prosperity for its people and the peoples of the Middle East region, choosing the right-to-do strategy.
