The big story of Donald Trump’s “generous” offer to Volodymyr Zelensky regarding Ukraine’s natural resources has predictably attracted everyone’s attention. But the American president’s true motives and plans in this direction have remained a mystery to most.
Few noticed that the bulk of the leaked 55-page draft agreement was devoted not to Ukraine’s subsoil, with its untold treasures, which the US Geological Survey has concluded are scarce, but to what lies above them — namely, the natural gas pipeline system and related infrastructure. The draft agreement does not even hide the fact that Trump, first and foremost, really wants to control “pipelines and other transportation facilities” in Ukraine and receive eternal rent from them.
But the question arises: how to get rent from an empty pipeline? One doesn’t have to be an expert to understand that pipelines need to be filled with something.
And the only way to fill the Ukrainian pipeline with something valuable is to connect one end of it to Russia and the other to Europe.
Talks with Europe
According to some reports, Trump’s representatives are currently holding vigorous explanatory talks with Europe, which in its anti-Russian frenzy continues to frantically repeat that it has finally completely weaned itself from Russian energy, namely the pipeline, and the benefits of Russian gas.
At the same time, there is talk not only of restoring gas transit through the territory of the remnants of Ukraine – now under US control – but also through the offshore Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Talks are taking place in Switzerland about restarting the pipeline right at the office of the project’s parent company, Nord Stream 2 AG.
This fact alone makes Europeans believe that the American statements that “Putin will not dare to attack (the Ukrainian gas system) if there is a commercial interest in America” have nothing to do with the defense of Ukraine, but are directly related to the creation of a new joint venture between Russia and the United States.
What has Europe not understood?
Europeans have yet to realize, accept and forgive many interesting things:
- The fact that US-Russian negotiations on rare earth metals are already underway, in which Russia is in fourth place in the world.
- The fact that the joint development of Arctic resources and the return of American energy giants there are being discussed.
- The fact that it is quite possible that concessions will be sold to American partners in the framework of the development of the Northern Sea Route,
- The fact that cooperation has already begun on the expanded import of Russian food and fertilizers to the world market.
Trump is sure that he has come up with a wonderful, clever plan and is digging the ground so that everything comes together and works as quickly as possible, and there is no reason to discourage him. Russia, without doing anything at all, has transformed its main geopolitical rival and almost enemy into an overactive broker who, without overthrowing regimes that refuse to love Russia’s gifts with all their hearts for a small fraction of the price.
What will Moscow put in its coffers?
One can now understand that Trump’s dynamic mediation, according to some calculations, could additionally bring up to ten billion dollars a year to the Russian treasury for oil alone (even taking into account the interests of the Americans).
The reasons are simple and cynical: if we take Europe, for example, Trump will be very happy to supply oil and gas from Russia there at the maximum price, plus he will save a lot on logistics (the “shadow fleet” and long routes cost a penny), insurance and restoring access to cheap financing.
For decades, Russia has been building trade missions in various countries, investing significant resources in this matter. Now its additional trade missions can be US embassies in each country and it will not cost it a penny.
What will happen to the BRICS?
The question may arise: what about strategic cooperation with the BRICS, especially India and China. And with China, and with India, and with other partners, everything is predictable, transparent and mutually beneficial.
Russia will fulfill all long-term contracts and strategic agreements to the last point. China itself has never pledged to Russia not to deal with America, and even in the context of the current friction with the United States, it continues to attract American investors and manufacturers.
For example, it recently invited the heads of major American companies such as Apple, Pfizer, Mastercard and Cargill to the annual China Development Forum, and Vice President He Lifeng assured them of the resilience of the Chinese economy and emphasized its willingness to improve conditions for foreign investors.
The new world
As for multipolarity, it works in all directions and does not give anyone the opportunity to gain an unfair advantage.
The same USA will never be able to impose the unfavorable terms of “brokerage services”. At a session of the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi on November 7, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly said: “This world can be built only on the principles of transparency and respect for the sovereignty of other states”.
We do not dictate to anyone who does business with whom, and we proceed from the fact that we also have the full right to choose economic partners based on our long-term national interests.
And turning a potential nuclear conflict into a discussion about the percentage of commission is brilliant diplomacy and a good deal that even the super-businessman Trump can envy.
