The Geopolitical Developments in Balkans

The current developments in the Southeastern European area, and especially in the geopolitical area called the Balkans, due to the rivalry between the major powers (mainly the US, EU and UK) towards Russia and the attempt to prevent Russia from penetrating the region, create flammable situations for the peoples of the region.

The beginning of Russian penetration in the Balkans

If we make a brief historical review, we will see that Russia’s penetration of the Balkan region existed since the 18th century, since Russia was the protector of all Christian Orthodox populations living in the Balkans and more generally in the Ottoman Empire as a whole (Treaty of Kiutsu-Kainartzis (1774) and the Treaty of Iasi (1792)).

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis-https://www.liberalglobe.com

Any questioning of Russia’s role as a protector of Christian Orthodox populations in the Balkans and in the territory of the Ottoman Empire was that which also triggered the Crimean War (1854) between Russia and Turkey initially and later between the then Western Powers and Russia.

It was the reforming work of the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, Mahmut II (1785-1839), which was applied by his son, the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire Abdul Metzit I (1823-1861) through Hati Serif of Giulhane who gave equal rights and religious equality for the whole of the minorities living in the then Ottoman Empire.

This was the reason that caused Russia to believe that its interests were undermined as a protector of the Christian Orthodox population due to the penetration of the then Western Powers into the concrete Southeast European region that led to the Crimean War (1853-1856).

The then Western powers had as their main strategy the repellent and isolation of Russia from the Mediterranean Sea in every way. This was accomplished with the independence of Greece and the initial creation of the Greek state (1830) until its final integration and conclusion (1922).

Russia recognized Greece as an independent state which would belong to the sphere of influence of the Western Powers given that Greece would always function as a neutral state to Russia. This Russia’s isolation concluded with the subsequent creation of the modern Turkish state (1923).

The achievable strategies of the then Western powers towards Russia

These two artificially-as to their borders-created states appear as a single geo-political and geographic layout on the map, which provision simultaneously achieves the implementation of three great strategies for the then Western Powers:

1. Fully controls Russia’s access to the Mediterranean Sea through both the Bosporus straits and the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) and the Aegean Sea (Greece), by removing it from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

2. Both Serbia and Bulgaria, as peoples who follow the doctrine of the Eastern Christian Church (Orthodox), have been immersed in the sphere of Russian influence and generally belonged to Russian civilization and not in the sphere of the Western European civilization.

In addition to the repulsion of Russia in the Mediterranean Sea, at the same time the single geographical area of​​ Greece and Turkey also excluded Serbia and Bulgaria from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, which Serbia and Bulgaria constituted the main axes and allies of Russia in the Balkans.

3. At the same time, the single geographical area of Greece and Turkey excluded all Eastern European states (Poland, the East of Germany – former Prussia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria). I include in these states and the whole of the Scandinavian countries in accessing all these states in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Suez Canal (1869) equally.

4. In addition, Greece and Turkey themselves have led to economic and commercial decline, as the natural capital of the Balkans and the gateway to and exit of the goods and products of these states is Thessaloniki and, more generally, the ports of Northern Greece.

Constantinople (Istanbul) lost more than a thousand years of glamor as its largest trading center in the Eastern Mediterranean (and Black Sea). A long-lasting result was a large part of the Greek people of Northern Greece and a large part of the Turkish people to emigrate and seek a livelihood in the industrially developed northern European countries.

The consequences of these policies

These policies of the then Western Powers essentially isolated all the peoples of the Balkans and Eastern Europe into any economic development that all these peoples could have achieved having greatly increased trade and trade transactions in their economies through their access to Eastern Mediterranean.

The history has shown us that the increasing volume of trade is the critical factor in the economy that creates the necessary wealth and raises the carpet for the later emergence of the greatest human achievements in the fields of technology, science, culture etc.

The foundations for the economic blossom of the US that allowed for their further gradual economic growth began to form from the landmark year (1803).

Napoleon A Bonaparte sold the great geopolitical importance state of Louisiana to the United States, thereby achieving the United States to transport goods and products from North America to Central America and viceversa, without controls and duties on them, through the large Mississippi River in the United States and the systems of its tributaries (Missouri-Jefferson-Arkansas-Ohio)- where the Mississippi River has its estuary in the State of Louisiana which until then belonged to the French.

The trade and industry have flourished in the US Central states and more generally from where the Mississippi River passed, whose economies have grown too fast. If eastern Europe and the Balkans had such a similar opportunity to grow commercially, industrially and economically, there would be no nationalism, neither extreme chauvinism nor under development in these countries-states.

Because of this isolationism and under development experienced by the Balkans, these peoples were following a path of extreme nationalism and chauvinism that led to the start of World War I from the Balkans, putting the end of this war based on further growth nationalism and fascism across Europe that led to the World War II.

The subsequent conquest of Eastern Europe and the Balkans by the Soviet Union threw all the peoples of Eastern Europe and the Balkans into the “plaster” of totalitarianism, further accelerating the economic and commercial poverty of these states and stagnating the nationalism of these peoples for more than forty-five (45) years and laid the foundations for the huge gap in post-war division across Europe.

Today’s attempt to prevent Russian penetration in the Balkans from today’s Western powers

Currently, the whole world is watching the aggravated and, in every way, attempt to repel the Russian penetration into the Balkans,and particularly in the Western Balkans by the US, EU & UK. This effort can be briefly summarized in the following actions:

1. The rapid expansion of NATO in the Western Balkans, ignoring the tensions between the West (EU, US, UK) and Russia, and without the EU having been first integrated as member-countries in its territory – based on its strict preconditions – the Western Balkan countries.

The Western Balkan countries, in their present situation, cannot enter in the EU as member-countries because of their greater economic and social problems, but also due to the increased chauvinism that they experience (because of their historic paths).

This misguided and hasty strategy involving first NATO expansion and after the EU’s expansion into these same countries was first implemented in Eastern Europe in the late 1990s (in 1999, NATO incorporating Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary).

This strategic move has brought to light the rivalry between the US and Russia on the territory of Europe, while the EU has been forced to take part in this rivalry.

First, the EU had to be expanded economically in this area by making these Eastern European countries EU member-states- based on its rigorous standards – and then these countries to join NATO as full members. This would have a two fold effect:

a)  would give Russia the necessary time to understand that it will must also participate in the unification, self-reliance and coordinated development of the whole of Europe, and it would have no reason to then defensive and aggressive attack on NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe.

b)  would also allow the EU to develop a specific project for both Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Unfortunately, the EU has never created a compact and comprehensive plan integrating into its family the South East Europe, the Balkans and the Western Balkans and forced integration into Eastern Europe.

2. Excessive US and EU support in a specific state (Albania) and in the Albanian ethnicity in the Western Balkans in general, causing an excessive increase in their chauvinism and nationalism of this state over another state (Serbia) and Serbian ethnicity.

Creating a gap between them and turning Serbia towards Russia, while laying the foundations for the outbreak of war between them in the Balkans.

In the historical review we made in the previous paragraphs, we showed why the current West (US EU & UK) is against Serbia. Today and as Bulgaria is in the EU and NATO, Serbia is the only pillar and ally of Russian penetration in the Balkans.

With the break-up of Yugoslavia (1991) and the outbreak of wars between the nationalities that made Yugoslavia, the Western Balkans were fragmented into different national communities that were in the territory of another hostile and different national communities and states respectively.

NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in favor of the Albanians against the Serbs has resulted in an increase in Albanian chauvinism and the humiliation of the Serbs who have been waiting for their revenge ever since. This rivalry between Albanian and Serbian nationalism creates instability in the Western Balkans.

3. Today’s proposals for a change of borders between the Western Balkan states are extremely dangerous for the outbreak of war that will lead to a generalized war between the great powers (The World War I started in the Western Balkans).

Such proposals that have occasionally appeared in the printed and electronic press include the annexation of North Kosovo to Serbia in exchange for the transfer of the Presevo Valley to Kosovo, something that people who lives in Presevo Valley does not want.

These suggestions include also the provision of the executive-governmental autonomy of North Kosovo, something that the Kosovar Albanians do not want

4. The announced deviations for change of borders include:

a) Albania and Kosovo have announced that they will abolish the borders between them and will become one unified state (on 01/01/2019 until 01/01/2025).

b) This policy will automatically create secessionist trends for Albanians living in FYROM cutting into the two the specific country.

c) At the same time, the Serbian Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina will announce its union with Serbia, while Serbia will annex the area of North Kosovo.

The scenario that will most likely occur

Most likely, all this is done under armed conflict and under the umbrella of NATO in favor of Albanians. Serbia will not remain impotent and will try to protect its interests and its people in Kosovo, while taking revenge on the humiliation suffered by Albanians via NATO in Kosovo in1999.

NATO will take the opportunity it seeks to hit Serbia by causing Russia to intervene immediately in the Balkans to defend Serbia from NATO, turning the Great Powers the Western Balkans in an enlarged Syria-as to the geographic size of the war operations.

At the same time, Greece-member of the Eurozone/EU and NATO equally – will not accept this border change and will invade Albania and FYROM to protect the Greek minorities living in the respective countries.

Bulgaria will try to annex part of FYROM (Pirin region), without looking at the role of Turkey, which, if annexed to the BRICS camp, Turkey will must support Russia against NATO.

NATO, defending the Albanians, what will do with Greece that will invade in Albania?

Will NATO hit Greece? In this case, Greece will leave NATO and will join with Serbia and Russia. Will Turkey hit Greece? But then Greece will have to hit Turkey, forcing Russia, Serbia and Greece to unite and engage in an attack on all Muslim states in the Balkans.

When border changes are made in the Western Balkans to include the ethnicities themselves in a state with common borders, what will happen to Russian-speaking populations living in Eastern European member-countries of EU?

Will these minorities also ask in the same way unification with the Russia by giving Russia the right to invite in EU to defend them? What will the EU, the US and, in general, NATO do in this case? Will it be involved in a generalized war with Russia? And how will China react, a strategic partner of Russia? We must remember that this is a realistic scenario-domino.

What is the most appropriate policy-strategy for the interest of all these peoples while avoiding all these hostilities, minimizing the competition of the Great powers in the Western Balkans?

A sound strategy for the good of all peoples

The solution lies with different minorities living in different states. Minorities unite states and do not separate them. The fact that there was a recent agreement between Greece and FYROM on the name of this country (FYROM) is the basis of a starting point for defining the policy that will must be implemented in the Western Balkans.

1. FYROM

Given the agreement reached between FYROM and Greece, will have:

To recognize in the Constitution of FYROM both the two languages that make up the great populations of this state. Albanian and the one defined in the agreement between Greece and FYROM (North Slavic-Macedonian) (PrespesAgreement (2018)).

At the same time, a full equation of rights for all citizens of that country will must be recognized in the Constitution of that country, regardless of their nationality or religious minority respectively.

This State will use one of the official languages of the EU (English, German, French) as its official language for its state administration, and none of the languages of the nationalities that make up it. The direct result of this policy will be to minimize pressure and friction among all ethnicities and minorities living there.

The name of this state will must not be Northern Macedonia as defined by the Prespes Treaty (2018) (Agreement-Treaty between Greece and FYROM). More generally, the name of this state should not indicate ethnicity.

For example, if it is called Northern Macedonia, the Albanian ethnicity living there will seek to secede and unite with Albania in every way. If for example is named as Republic of Illyria – Northern Macedonia, then its partition will officially be recognized.

The only velvet divorce that occurred among ethnicities living in the same state which their state name indicated their nationality was the state of the Czechoslovak Republic (Czechs-Slovaks), but in the Balkans the divorces are drowned in the blood.

The name of this country (FYROM) will must have a historic geography without indicating ethnicity e.g. Republic of Vardar. In this way it is immediately established that the territory of this state will not be claimed by any neighboring state or Balkan people.

This state (FYROM) will be a neutral state, for example. such as Switzerland. In this state, they can participate financially through investments and the other Balkan states, including Turkey.

This state and as I have described it will be the bridge of peace between the Balkan states, promoting the well-being of its citizens and neighboring states, and it will not need to have an army but a gendarmerie, because the guarantor powers will be its neighboring states, and EU, given that the goal will be for all theWestern Balkan countries to join the EU as full members at some point.

This fully covers the gap and competition of the great powers in the Balkans and sets the foundations for the solution of all the problems that exist in the Balkans.

2. Albania

It must become fully understood that will not be permitted at all to change the border between states in the Western Balkans. The support shown by the EU and the US in favor of Albania and Albanian nationalism increases the chances of it not exist agreement between Serbia and Albania on their respective ethnicities living there scattered throughout the Western Balkans.

If these communities of different ethnicities cannot find between them bridges of communication and reconciliation, will not be able to achieve this as member-countries within the EU. The without limits West (EU and US) backed support to Albania at the expense of Serbia will necessarily lead Serbia into the arms of Russia.

Albania will have to incorporate into its Constitution and implement in practice all articles of international law on the full protection of national and religious minorities live in its country.

This obligation will must be incorporated as a control of its course towards the EU. For the economic policies in this country and for the rest of the Western Balkans, I will refer to another paragraph.

3. Serbia

Strong economic and political support will must be given to Serbia from the West, and it is understood by actions that there are no winners and losers in this path towards their EU membership.

In addition, a clear picture will must be provided of what kind of course and steps will have to be taken in the changes to the Constitution of Serbia to fully incorporate all articles of international law and those articles needed to adapt one country to join the EU.

4. Kossovo-Presevo Valley-Republika Srpska-Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

All these communities gain executive-government autonomy. Both communities (Kossovoand Presevo Valley) will have to adopt in their political code the political codes which exist in other developed European countries.

Since, then, Serbia and Albania will agree with the EU that they will follow a specific “road map” each time strictly in their control – steps to economic and financial social modernization with the goal of fully integrating into the Eurozone/EU.

Τhe communities of Kosovo and the Presevo Valley will automatically operate as to their administration of their communities equally – base on the standards that I mentioned for the state of FYROM.

It will have to be made clear that the course for all will be common and they will must all adopt the same framework of EU rules. As it concerns the justice in these areas as far as racial and religious crimes are concerned must be exemplary and will be referred to a court of magistrates from member countries of the euro area /EU and not from local communities.

The economic and investment policies to be implemented in the Western Balkans

None of the above-mentioned policies will succeed if there are no specific economic and investment policies to raise the standard of living of citizens in these areas. I will briefly mention a few:

1. The EU will have to provide specific funds to finance the modernization of the road and rail network equally for the entire Western Balkans (if Serbia and Albania and the other communities mentioned above agree and respect the “road map ” to be set by the EU to become full members). These projects can be done through PPP (Public Private Partnerships) schemes, privatizations etc.

2. Complete abolition of monopolies in any of these markets and opening the markets of all these communities and states with simultaneous privatizations of state-owned enterprises, which privatizations will bring a large amount of capital to the corresponding state budgets that could then be used for the modernization of infrastructure and improving the provision of medical services to their citizens.

3. Strict and complete repression of the crime and any actions of the underworld as well as any state corruption.

4. Initially and due to the low-cost labor force, that exists in the entire Western Balkans, the EU will must give incentives to its companies and industries to move to these areas.

5. All these measures will drastically reduce unemployment and will steadily increase the standard of living among all the populations living in the Western Balkans.

6. Fully modernize agricultural production in the entire Western Balkans and turn them into sustainable organic farming by increasing farmers’ incomes.

7. Incentives in all the Western Balkans to shift the economies of the Western Balkans states to commercial orientation.

The evil in terms of the economic and social component of the Western and Eastern Balkan countries over time stems from the fact that historically they could not develop their commercial capabilities, both Serbs and Albanians, but also Bulgarians and Romanians, given that their access to the Eastern Mediterranean through the Aegean Sea was blocked.

For this reason, the EU will must:

a) finance, among other things, the creation of one or two giant airports solely for sensitive goods and products in the city of Thessaloniki and in the city of Kavala (Greece) respectively.

These airports will import and export sensitive goods and products from the Western and Eastern Balkans respectively to the markets of Asia, Africa and the Middle East as well as imports from the markets of the respective continents.

These airports will be linked to the main roads and railways of the Western and Eastern Balkans. At the same time, the ports of these two cities will must be developed due to the large volumes of goods moving from and to the Balkans, the Eastern EU and the Nordic countries that are members of the EU.

b) The EU will have to finance the opening of all tributaries and rivers linked to the Danube River (Morava River and Axios River etc.).

So as to create a grid of rivers that each will have the size of the Suez canal with its main link the Danube River linking the Scandinavian countries, the Central EU and the Eastern EU with the South-East EU (Thessaloniki-Aegean Sea (Greece)) by acquiring all these areas direct access to the Southeast Mediterranean (Middle East, Suez canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, etc.).

This grid of rivers around the Danube River will have the same role as the Mississippi River and its tributary system in the United States where it joins North America to Central America.

The fast and seamless transport of goods through the rivers will provide the basis for the flowering of the economies of the countries through which all these rivers pass, accelerating the increase in trade and the wealth production in all these regions.

The rising and diffused wealth in all these countries and areas will minimize nationalism and chauvinism in the Balkans as a whole, and beyond.

c) As the Danube River expands to the Black Sea, it is possible, respectively, to increase the trade between the Black Sea non-EU countries and the EU member-countries.

d) The gap and the great competition which exists between the Great powers (US, EU, UK and Russian respectively) in the Balkans and not only, stem from the natural gas transit corridors to the huge EU market. There are some points to make here:

di) the monopoly dependence of the EU on Russian gas will must be stopped. Generally, in the Liberal Globe we are against all kinds of monopolies for reasons that we will not refer to in this analysis.

However, Russia’s total exclusion from the EU gas market will only cause a financial downturn in Russia, with result Russia next to make war attack in the EU. What will must be done is not the exclusion of Russia but the drastic increase in the number of natural gas suppliers in the EU market, and there will must not be a major natural gas supplier and trader equally.

The transfer of natural gas from the South East Mediterranean to the Central and North EU market will break Russia’s supply monopoly.

Increasing the number of natural gas suppliers in the EU market will create the conditions for creating a competitive and open market where each natural gas supplier will compete by providing lower prices to EU consumers.

The EU will be able to create an in-depth and broader energy market by building on it a market of derivative (forwards/futures/options etc.) contracts on specific negotiated quantities of natural gas.

dii) In order to have more and more gas suppliers apart from Russia, EU member states (Cyprus and possibly Greece) as well as Egypt and Israel, will have to be created the proper framework to increase this number of gas suppliers.

To make the price of LNG coming from the US to the EU more competitive with the corresponding gas prices of the other gas suppliers, both Central Asian countries and Russia will must transfer their natural gas in LNG form by ships from the ports of the Black Sea countries to the ports of the Eastern EU member-countries which are also located in the Black Sea.

Subsequently, this natural gas can be transported by the same kind of ships to the Central EU through the Danube River and its tributaries. In this case, LNG costs from Central Asia and Russia will be closer to the cost of LNG to be transported through the Atlantic Ocean by US vessels to the Western EU.

Any natural gas pipelines that will be needed for the transport of natural gas will must be in the territory of the EU alone and not outside it.

In other words, the transportation of natural gas from countries such as Egypt, Israel, Cyprus (EU member-country) will must be done mainly through ships at sea and then stored in specially modified LNG terminals for the later gasification and transport through natural gas pipelines.

All this network of gasification terminals and pipelines equally will be located 100% only on the territory of the EU.

Since Russia, the US and the EU agree in this context, all Great powers gain and cease to exist the great competition that is burdening the planet. Naturally, the existing natural gas pipelines cannot be abolished.

diii) In this way, everyone is gaining, reducing the Great powers the tensions between them, and this reduction intension will be transferred as much in the Balkans as to other conflicts (e.g.Ukraine, finding a solution between them).

The road to Prosperity

Over time, the Russian penetration in the Balkans was based on the role that Russia played as the guardian power ofthe Christian Orthodox populations in them. The same role was played by Muslim populations and Turkey, hence Turkey’s penetration into the Balkans.

Distinctively these two countries could retain this role and until the countries and the communities of the Western Balkans to fully enter as member-countries in the EU.

So that during their course to become full EU members the populations and the corresponding societies of the Western Balkans to fully understand by socially aging that the religion and faith that each person chooses is his purely personal affair and the way he communicates with God.

What they need to understand (these populations and societies is that they will must all follow specific written rules which are common for all without exception (EU Constitution) and independently the religion that they follow. Only in this way they will prosper and progress.

The Eastern EU which includes the total of the Scandinavian countries, the Baltic countries (I do not include in this geographical definition the Western Russia) and the countries of Poland, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Ukraine as well as the countries of the Balkans together with the territory of the European Turkey constitute a population of a potential market that exceeds one hundred and thirty million people (130million).

The integration, the completion and the self-reliance of Europe and the EU goes through this region of Europe.

Increasing the individual income and consumption of each citizen from these countries create the basis for the well-being of these populations, as well as the prosperity of the EU that will have a direct reflection on world growth and prosperity respectively.

Both Russia and the United States will have to seek this unification of the EU and help it to the fullest because it will be to their benefit.

Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis

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