The diplomatic situation between the states located in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and the variable balances between them affect the global trade map with a direct impact on the availability of products and the prices they have when they reach our hands. It is something much more tangible and complex than the butterfly phenomenon because what is happening right now in this part of the world concerns us all much more than we can understand at first glance as this region is the matrix of the world trade routes.
Starting the analysis we will talk about the QUAD which includes America, India, Japan and Australia and is a coalition of states which are trying to bring with their action free navigation in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and open trade respecting the rules of international law and the law of the sea.
The joint activity of the four, although it began with military actions, now has a much larger scope of action, including efforts to address climate change and to ensure a health framework for developing countries by providing vaccinations to them.
In addition, the countries are also struggling in the area of ensuring cybersecurity with the rapid development of technology and in caring for the environment, wanting to cover all these areas to ensure a stable global economy for the states. The importance of their cooperation was particularly evident during the Covid 19 period, especially with regard to the supply chain of products.
The QUAD began in 2004 with the provision of humanitarian aid to the tsunami-affected areas. The aim of this particular square of balances in the Indo-Pacific Ocean is to provide a response to China’s growing power in the world, with India, which is growing steadily, being the most important response as a rival to China.
The other countries in the Indo-Pacific Ocean often act as fire-fighting between the tense game of chess that has been played for years between India and China. It is nothing new that the two countries compete economically with each other in technological development and trade, the issue is the way in which each of them defines what development means and how it is prepared to achieve it.
India has a leading role in the square of countries due to its geopolitical position in the Indo-Pacific. A key element of India’s leadership is people-centered development, something that China does not do as it focuses only on numbers. India’s people-centered approach is evident as it is a champion in vaccine distribution and infrastructure development.
The world is watching as the two nations compete to become the dominant superpower and representative of the global south. Although China is clearly stronger today, India is moving ahead rapidly with its economic momentum, military development, and diplomatic offensive. In fact, India has also launched its own lending program called the Neighborhood First Policy to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
India’s rise comes at a favorable time. China’s economy is in a downward spiral, with crippling debt, declining foreign direct investment and trillions of dollars in capital flight. It is suffering from high youth unemployment, a property market collapse, declining household wealth, weak consumer demand and the prospect of deflation. In addition, China faces a demographic time bomb.
China’s economic miracle is now a thing of the past, having been destroyed by Xi’s policies that abandoned free trade mechanisms in favor of tighter state control through state-owned enterprises. He insisted on political discipline and scared off foreign investors with tough anti-espionage policies.
On the contrary, investors are currently finding fertile ground in India, a country that is a matrix of foreign investment with much more humane conditions for workers, something that does not happen in China. India’s presence in the region is becoming increasingly important with the passage of time.
In the post-Cold War era, the absence of strategic competition in the Indian Ocean allowed New Delhi to not only play a prominent role, but also to ensure a favorable and secure Indian Ocean for its strategic interests. The emergence of China as an additional and perhaps alternative security provider has forced India to reconsider its foreign policy choices under the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, if Beijing has managed to make advances in India’s immediate neighborhood, it was because New Delhi created an environment favorable to this. India continues to increase its global partnerships and has much friendlier relations with America than with China, a fact explained by the different historical context in which the countries flourished.
China’s history is a series of dynasties and ruling families that fought for power while India’s history is the history of a country with an inclusive culture as it has always influenced and been influenced by its conquerors. So at the moment QUAD aims to check China’s expansionist policy as a counterweight and protection to the countries that China is currently claiming, namely Japan, India, Nepal, Bhutan and the Philippines. It is worth considering that at the moment India is a framework country of peaceful coexistence of different religious denominations and ethnic minorities.
But what is the next day that is dawning in the Indo-European Ocean? By surrounding India with military installations, China aims to limit India’s access to the world while gaining a military advantage. This is China’s way of stifling India’s ambitions.
Over the past decade, China has been encircling India’s southern coast with ports that serve as military installations. Through the BRI, China has developed and taken control of Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, Chittagong Port in Bangladesh, Lamu Port in Kenya, a naval base in Djibouti, and Dar Es Salam Port in Tanzania.
These ports form a “string of pearls” intended to limit India’s access to the world. India, in turn, is creating alliances to surround China. Just as China created the “string of pearls,” India has created a “diamond chain” with which to strangle China’s access to the Indian Ocean, the East Sea, and the South China Sea. It is a reciprocal response. The difference is that – instead of gaining access to military bases through infrastructure deals and debt traps, India has done so by forging alliances with like-minded countries.
In terms of diplomatic relations, China’s poor trade record and refusal to abide by the rule of law have earned it a reputation as a pariah state. Its multiple and simultaneous territorial acquisitions, aggressive actions, debt traps, and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine have led to its increasing isolation from democracies that respect the rule of law.
India, on the other hand, is growing from a power to a superpower. It has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, with 1.43 billion consumers, most of whom are growing in wealth. It has emerged as the world’s fifth largest economy and continues to grow at a rate of six to seven percent annually. Today, India ranks fourth in the world in terms of military and nuclear power, 11th in diplomatic power, fourth in innovation and technology, seventh in the number of technology patents filed, and is the eighth largest recipient of foreign direct investment. In particular, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has embarked on a diplomatic campaign to reach out to like-minded countries. Since 2014, he has made 84 foreign trips covering 71 countries.
Time will tell whether India will surpass China as the second most influential country on the planet and the dominant representative of the global south. The economic and diplomatic winds are certainly working in India’s favor. However, we would be foolish to underestimate China’s military power.
Post-peak countries tend to act radically as they try to hold on to power in the midst of decline and of course in the case of China we must be particularly careful as we are talking about a country with a strong communist background. In the journey of creating a framework for equitable development of countries in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, India through its action in QUAD is the only country that can act as a counterbalance to China and as Narendra Modi says the importance of a journey is not measured by the distance traveled, but by the destination reached.
