Beijing believes that Taiwan’s future lies in its integration into the People’s Republic of China. The outcome of Taiwan’s January 2024 elections, with the rise of pro-China parties, has reinforced this perception. China still favors peaceful unification, but it nevertheless seeks to be ready to enforce Taiwan’s integration and to prevent or delay any military support for the island.
China’s military readiness vis-à-vis Taiwan is very high. This situation means short warning times for Taiwan and significant attrition of Taiwanese armed forces in peacetime. In addition, China has built bases and increased its activity in the South China Sea, while new Chinese weapons systems allow China to confront potential troops from other countries further from its shores, thus increasing the country’s deterrence capability.
Despite intense influence activity, Beijing has not managed to change the official Taiwan’s stance on unification. This is mainly due to the corresponding influence activities on the part of the United States. Vast sums of money and military equipment disproportionate to the size of the army have managed to influence Taiwan’s politicians in a pro-Western trend. The paradox is that the more this trend grows, the more it translates into danger from China and the more its insistence on absorbing Taiwan will increase.
The US position, presenting itself as sensitive to Taiwan’s independence, is completely hypocritical. Essentially, they are denying a superpower the annexation of an island just 120 kilometers from its coast, an island entirely inhabited by a Chinese population. And this is done by the US, which by force (cruel and bloody force) conquered the Hawaiian Islands, 3,500 miles away from the US, simply because they were convenient as a naval base. They also want Taiwan to serve as an informal and unofficial US base next to China.
It is therefore obvious that these US demands come from an outdated policy of the 19th century, when the US, as a rising power, set the terms. They also stem from the willful denial of a realistic analysis of current geopolitical parameters, resulting in setting goals that can only lead them to defeat.
China today is more than capable of annexing Taiwan by force. It does not do so because it does not want a conflict with the Chinese population of the island.
And the US, the West in general, will not do, will not be able to do anything substantial. They will not dare an open conflict with the largest army on the planet. A well-equipped and trained army. They will be content with a series of economic measures aimed at hurting the Chinese economy. And there they will be forced to land abruptly, falling face down on the concrete. They will discover, to the great regret of Western societies, that it is now too late for such moves.
The Chinese economy can hurt the Western one, but not the other way around. And this is a very important strategic error of Western governments, which, yielding to economic interests, transferred industrial facilities, infrastructure and know-how to China, in order to save the “expensive wages” of Western workers. In this way, they accelerated the exit of the Chinese economy from the barbed wire of communism and its spread throughout the world. The Chinese, a people, hardworking, philosophical and worthy, had a huge desire to change their living standards and thus, the Chinese economic miracle of our days was realized.
China will therefore work to achieve unification with Taiwan. It is something that is a central staff goal of its and something that Western actions impose on it. Measures to isolate Taiwan diplomatically will continue, as will overt and covert influence activity and a high level of military activity in the region. The latter increases the risk of unintended incidents and escalation and makes the regional security situation even more delicate.
Beijing is clear that it wants the peaceful annexation of the island. This is also its biggest disadvantage in this crisis, since its Western adversaries have repeatedly proven that they are easy to pull the trigger when it suits them. The new US President has spoken very sternly on the Taiwan issue, presenting a tough political mood.
