The war in Ukraine continues unabated, with clashes in Eastern Ukraine in the Bakhmut region reaching epic proportions for both the Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces.
At the same time, Russia continues the transfer and training of its military forces in Belarus, succeeding in anchoring a significant amount of Ukrainian army forces around Kiev, fearing a Russian attack to occupy the country’s capital from the direction of Minsk.
Ukrainian President Zelensky also went to the US, asking for additional military assistance, including Patriot anti-aircraft systems, with a positive response from Washington, in order to stop the destruction of his country’s energy infrastructure by the Russian Armed Forces, who are using drones and missile systems constantly attack them depriving Ukrainian citizens of heating, electricity and water.
However, in the last week an event happened which in our estimation is the one that will direct the developments in the war in Ukraine playing a catalytic role.
The results of the surprise visit of the Vice President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev to China
Dmitry Medvedev arrived in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping. Dmitry Medvedev is currently the Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council and Chairman of the ruling United Russia party.
However, it is possible that in terms of the effectiveness of this trip, Medvedev’s status as a former president of Russia was the most important.
Here it is worth understanding the peculiarities of the East. In the East, former heads of state have almost the same status as current heads of state if they come from the same political faction, and are therefore often used to hold extremely important meetings.
The issues discussed covered a period of many years, which is very important for the real security and sustainable development of the two forces.
The head of the United Russia faction in the State Duma, Vladimir Vasiliev, recalled projects of economic cooperation, for example in the field of agriculture or transport infrastructure, but the former President of Russia has not been sent for such negotiations.
The two versions of what was discussed
Several claim that Xi, through Medvedev, asked Russia to urgently end the special military operation. Still others claim that Moscow and Beijing have discussed a specific aid mission from China as part of Russia’s Special Operation (NWO). It is possible that Putin is asking China for large quantities of weapons, military equipment, that Russia cannot produce.
In addition, Moscow is asking China to ignore US sanctions and sell technology and intensify economic relations. In both versions, surprisingly, there is both a partial truth and a serious exaggeration.
Compromise but not defeat
The fact is that in February, when Putin and Xi met in Beijing, the Chinese estimated that the NWO would be completed much more quickly and with much less international consequences.
Including the consequences for China itself the NWO as it develops ultimately destroys its strategic plans.
This conflict sharply worsens the US-China standoff and increases US pressure on China. China didn’t want that. Yes, Beijing understands that a conflict with Washington is inevitable, that the strategic trend is to steadily increase opposition, struggle and competition, but at the same time, the Chinese are trying to slow down this process as much as possible.
They are confident that time is on their side and will allow China to gain more power.
In terms of American foreign policy, the rivalry with the great powers is worsening sharply, and now the US is already putting pressure on China on the Taiwan issue.
China doesn’t like that, China is not happy with its plans being disrupted by the Russian NWO,” says Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
This is why China is interested in the rapid completion of the NWO. In this case, according to Beijing, American pressure on China will decrease.
But the Chinese do not want the completion of the NWO at any cost, they want an end without the defeat of Russia and with the result of either the victory of the Russian Federation, which is preferable for the Chinese, or such a compromise where Moscow will not be the loser.
The Chinese understand that if Moscow loses this conflict, then China’s geo-economic position will deteriorate sharply. The DPRK perceives Russia as its reliable supporter, supplier of energy resources and an important foreign policy partner. Therefore, a Russian defeat for the Chinese is not even a bad thing, but, in fact, a nightmare scenario.
Therefore, according to the expert, China does not put pressure on Russia, but still advises it not to reject opportunities to reach a fair compromise and not only to seek an unconditional, total and absolute victory.
And most importantly, he asks not to go to such an escalation, in which the US pressure on China would increase much more.
Continuation of the war with Chinese help
The Ukrainian side is just trying to get weapon systems from the Americans to force Moscow to escalate, interested in the continuation of hostilities and not at all in peace.
The Chinese see all this and also know the fundamental reluctance of either the West, or even more so Ukraine, for constructive negotiations with Moscow, that is, for a compromise that does not entail the defeat of Russia.
Therefore, Chinese President Xi is not going to put pressure on Moscow on this issue.
It seems that then China will have to join forces with Moscow in the strategy of forcing Ukraine and the West into peace. That is, to help the Russian military win victories on the battlefields through the supply of weapons and the Russian economy to withstand the pressure of sanctions.
Moreover, they are not just neighbors, partners and fellow travelers. Cooperation between China and Russia is extremely important to both sides. Their relationship is not an alliance, but something more than an alliance. They are not obliged to fight for each other, they do not limit the freedom of foreign policy, but the intensity of their interaction in the field of politics, economy and military technical matters is so great that it seems to be greater than the counterpart of the United States States with many of their official allies.
The degree of foreign policy coordination is increasingly narrow.
By the end of this year, we will reach a trade turnover of 200 billion dollars. China for the Russian Federation is the No. 1 partner in every way. Along with India, it is the main investor and partner in terms of energy trade.
However, all this cooperation is unlikely to lead to direct Chinese aid to Russia under the NWO.
For the same reason that China wants to compromise, it is not now ready to come into conflict with the United States.
China will not act to its detriment in relations with Russia. It will not take steps that would expose it to additional blows from the United States. Therefore, it will not openly violate sanctions, it will not openly supply the Russian Federation with weapons systems and military equipment that would allow Washington to increase the pressure of sanctions on China.
You can criticize Beijing all you want for such behavior and rest assured that Chinese reticence only incites the American leadership to increase pressure on the DPRK on all fronts. Despite all the risks, Xi Jinping is not yet ready to abandon such a strategy.
On the other hand, the main concern for Russia is not the “game”, but the result. Therefore, if Dmitry Medvedev and Xi have agreed to military-technical cooperation through gray methods, this is something that should suit Moscow perfectly.
Conclusions
Beijing definitely wants an end to the war in Ukraine and is pushing Russia in that direction.
The reasons are not only the issue of Taiwan where the US pressure on China has intensified, nor the economic sanctions, but it is about the reversal of the Chinese design to challenge the Global Dominance of the US, with more claims and chances to be achieved in the future.
In general, China does not wish to confront the US directly now, but later, since at this stage it does not feel capable of confronting them with a serious chance of victory.
In addition, while the war in Ukraine continues, the US is rallying its Allies and joining new countries in the Alliances they have created in the Far East and the Pacific, showing them Ukraine as an example of what awaits them if they do not come under their protective umbrella.
This also works negatively for China, which can no longer create its own Alliances with countries in the region, due to the strong activation of the USA in this regard.
For the above reasons we believe that China has every benefit to end the war in Ukraine and is pushing Russia in this direction.
What Putin will do in the end remains to be seen.
