The rise of al-Julani from an al-Qaeda affiliate to a Western- and NATO-recognized “moderate” jihadist leader is an example of how geopolitical interests trump ideology. For years, the West pretended to be fighting terrorism while using al-Julani and his vast terrorist network linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS to destabilize Syria.
Today, amid a flood of doomsday scenarios, NATO, Israel, and Turkey are feeding off the carcass of Syria at lightning speed, sharing a dead nation with a patchwork of useful idiots and puppets, from Salafist jihadists to Americanized Kurds. Apparently, a collective IQ lower than any room temperature prevents this mish-mash from realizing that they are fighting for the same hegemony.
For Israel, the logic was that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” so supporting ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the whole gang, as well as other groups supported by Turkey and the “democratic” West, was the way to go. Israel and Turkey got involved after legitimate Syria was starving, exhausted, and mired in poverty. The Syrian army gave up the fight. Russia and Iran could not fight for them.
This worked surprisingly well for Israel, simply because the Jewish state prefers to have these “democratic opposition” idiots in power, since they pose no significant threat. To ensure that these groups do not receive heavy weapons from the shattered Syrian army, the Israeli air force has conducted target practice destroying anything of military value, such as anti-aircraft equipment, ammunition depots, electronic warfare equipment, intelligence centers, research facilities, airfields, hangars, remaining aircraft, and radars. So even 100,000 maniacs armed with hundreds of armored vehicles and pickups are a joke to the Israeli Armed Forces, because they are not an army, but a loose gang of fanatics more interested in looting and enforcing Sharia law than fighting.
Syria has fallen into decline and is likely to be divided into enclaves where the Turks will have control deep inside Syria, but at the same time they are engaged in a battle with the Kurds, who with US help hold a significant part of Syria’s oil and gas rich areas. The US controls the rich oil fields, while also having a strong combat presence in case something gets out of hand. Israel has occupied and annexed the Golan Heights and beyond, putting Damascus within artillery range, while at the same time violating the Lebanese border, effectively placing itself very close to areas controlled by Hezbollah (for more analysis on the specific issue please read the analysis titled “Israel’s Promised Land“).
The new “moderate” government in Syria, led by jihadists, has served its purpose, so it will soon be cast aside one way or another. Julani may remain in office for a while, as a useful idiot sitting idle is better than a charismatic leader gaining momentum and becoming a significant force.
Strategically, Assad’s fall has historically been a golden opportunity for his opponents, because it has cut off the land link between Iran and Hezbollah. The border war with Hezbollah in Lebanon has shown that Hezbollah is still strong, but it is only a matter of time before it begins to weaken, as there will be no flow of war material from Tehran. It may take years, but Israel is known to plan long-term and look decades into the future. Israel is deploying its military behind Hezbollah-controlled areas, and Lebanon could end up plunging into sectarian war, especially now that the Syrian army has disintegrated. The situation is tense (not explosive yet, but that could change) and a small spark could be enough to trigger a civil war in Lebanon. The Israeli army could invade from occupied Syrian territory, cut off southern Lebanon from the rest of the country, and create a Gaza-like scenario, namely destruction to the point where civilians are either starving, bombed, forced to flee to Syria via safe corridors, or exterminated.
Europe could return refugees to the “new” Syria, but that is only a dream. Under normal circumstances, none of the Syrian refugees would leave the safe haven of the EU to live in uncertainty in the war-torn country. Living off EU taxpayers and making money on benefits lavishly distributed by the EU is, as we all know, the order of the day. Of the millions of refugees, some may return, but probably only those whom Turkey forces to leave. Those who are now at risk due to the threat of reprisals and the terror of jihadists will try to leave Syria, they already are. Therefore, one type of refugee is replaced by another.
What will the Arab governments do? Absolutely nothing (as always). They will condemn various jihadist groups, threaten them or even send them aid, but as always they will declare that they have no jurisdiction. Their “no jurisdiction” also includes the fact that with the fall of Assad, the Shiite arc of the Middle East, mainly Iran, suffered a heavy defeat from which the Sunni emirates of the Arabian Peninsula benefit.
What could happen in Yemen? The Houthis pose a serious threat to Israel and Yemen is likely to be attacked soon by combined forces of Israel, the US and NATO, supported by the coalition of the Arabian Peninsula, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Yemen is only an intermediate step on the way to the final goal, Iran. For now, the Mossad, the CIA, and other NATO intelligence agencies will continue and strengthen the “fifth column” in Iran if Iran soon assembles operational nuclear weapons and carries out a demonstration that could delay any military intervention. Nuclear weapons are the only deterrent that Israel and the West fear. This does not mean that there will not be attempts to overthrow the Iranian government, but there is at least one devastating weapon that someone could use.
No doubt, in the coming days we will hear much more from NATO and the hawks in Washington celebrating their triumph in Syria. In the Biden White House they are undoubtedly discussing how best to exploit the overthrow of Assad. This obviously includes considerations and efforts to expel Russia from its military bases (Tartus, Hmeimim) on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, which is unlikely, as Moscow and Ankara seem to have agreed to their stay.
The biggest loser in Syria is the Syrian people, who have been subjected to a brutal and complex war for almost 15 years, with no end in sight. The Syrians have been bombed non-stop during these years by various Western countries, by the US, Turkey, France, England, the Netherlands and regularly by Israel. All of them had their own geopolitical interests. The Syrian people were deliberately starved and impoverished by the US in order to bring about the overthrow of Assad, just so that now the terrorist Julani, who is still on the US State Department’s payroll, can establish an Islamic tyranny in the country.
Now a painted Al Qaeda terrorist sits on the throne of Damascus as emir with the support, overt or covert, of the US, NATO, Turkey and Israel. All of them are putting red lipstick on the pig, thinking that it will make it more presentable to Western public opinion, which is fed on the hay of “democracy” and “freedom”.
