War Winds or A New International Agreement on Iran

Once again, we see the winds of war blowing in the countries of the Persian Gulf, preparing the planet for another real tragedy. On Thursday 20/06/2019, US President Donald Trump instructed his country’s military leadership for limited shocks against Iran’s radar bases and missile arrays in response to the shooting down of the US unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAV) from Iranian ground-to-air missile near the Strait of Hormuz.

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis-https://www.liberalglobe.com

But before the rooster crowed, President Trump canceled the attack, choosing restraint for the time being, justifying his decision that the civilian casualties of such attacks would be disproportionate to the incident of the unmanned aircraft.

The Chronicle of the tension between USA and Iran

US President Donald Trump with his strategy to “uproot” any policy left by the predecessor of 44^th US President Barack Obama (2009-2017) has led the situation to a stalemate.

1. In 2018, President Trump released the US from the agreement that had been imposed on Iran for its nuclear program commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal or JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (July 14, 2015) which signed between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, UK, USA, Russia, France) and Germany.

2. At the same time as the release of the US President Trump declared economic war in Iran. After a year, Iran’s GDP shrank by creating economic suffocation in its society and enabling its government to blame the misery of society in the West and the US, while trying to find alternative solutions to strengthen its economy.

3. In May of 2019, President Donald Trump instructed to sail the USS super aircraft carrier “Abraham Lincoln” with his armada in the Persian Gulf. He also sent a bomber squadron for no reason. In this way, it forced Iran to increase its reflexes and to acquire a highly “sensitive” martial behaviour.

All these actions have forced Iran to start threatening that if the EU does not cooperate with it, providing its trade and financial assistance will also be released, such as the US, from the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program of 2015 and of course from any restrictions placed on it.

This threat from Iran was intended to make the other participants in the international economic scene, namely the EU, Japan, Russia, China, other than the United States, continue to offer trade transactions in order to gain the necessary momentum needed by economy in order not to fall into economic decline.

These threats from Iran have succeeded in their aim since three European countries, France, Germany (EU) and the UK, have decided to strengthen capital of the company Instex , which they founded in January 2019, in order to maintain the commercial dealings with Iran, despite the imposed US embargo on Iran.

Essentially by providing a credit line to Instex, the necessary mechanism is created whereby those European companies importing products from Iran will pay the companies exporting products to Iran. The purpose of Instex is to ensure that the value of the export payments will balance the value of the imports.

Any shortfall in Instex’s value export-import balance sheet-given that imported products from Iran will have the least value in terms of the value of the companies ‘ exports of these three countries-will be covered with liquidity injections in Instex from these three European countries.

But as President Trump is bullish in his behaviour (like any businessman who likes to take risks) there are similarly Islamic fundamentalists in the Iranian government who are pursuing the war conflict with the US. Their scope is to gain even greater control over their country’s society.

Dangers on the geopolitical chessboard from a war in the Persian Gulf

The geopolitical upheavals that take place in the wider area of the Middle East including the Persian Gulf will accelerate these changes-upheavals. There will certainly be countries that will join the United States in the event of a war with Iran, but the wide-ranging alliances that the US had presented in the first Persian Gulf War (Operation Desert Shield) against Saddam Hussein (1990-1991) will never be achieved.

The EU in the event of a war between the US and Iran will be further tested in its relations with the US. Europe’s hard core (Germany, France, Benelux countries) will abstain, distancing itself completely from this war.

Along with any tension caused by the trade war between the EU and the US, this distancing of the EU will cause a fatal rift in its relations with the United States and may be fully triggered by the US’s political and military secession.

In such a situation, the EU to ensure its security will enter a new dynamic debate which in addition to its member-countries will include in this security planning and Russia.

It may not then be possible to renew any sanctions the EU has imposed on Russia on its part, breaking the barrage of sanctions that have been imposed jointly with the US in Russia. At the same time, the EU and Russia will try to find a mutually acceptable solution for eastern Ukraine.

UK by applying the option of exiting the EU and participating in a war with the US against Iran, it will come into conflict with the EU using as a “political-economic weapon” the non-payment of the amounts owed to the EU. In turn, the EU will consider non-payment of the agreed-upon payments as a UK payment stance and impose isolation measures on the UK economy.

Iran, in the event of war with the United States, will receive the utmost military and economic assistance from both Russia and China. The purpose of this assistance will be to make every effort to strike the prestige and power respectively of the superpower.

The simultaneous control of Syria from Russia and the unstoppable rapprochement between Turkey, Russia, Iran and China will create new data in the geopolitical area of the Middle East.

The subsequent withdrawal of the United States after a series of strikes-wounds in Iran will bring in very difficult situation Saudi Arabia and Israel, who in their turn and in their own territory, will receive any wrath of Iran and its allies who are visible or not.

The retractions in the decisions and how they are perceived

The fact that the most recent decisions of the US President have shown a palinode, it is the worst thing that a policy maker can do in the implementation of the non zero-sum game theory in politics and in any other area of power and prestige.

It points out indecision due to divisions and a lack of a coherent decision-making strategy at a higher level. If this palinode in the decisions shown by the President of the United States is repeated in the same field of confrontation, US potential opponents will begin to take it as a weakness by questioning the prestige of the US foreign policy.

Both the US National Security Advisor John R. Bolton and the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are pursuing the conflict with Iran, simulating Richard Bruce Cheney-46^th Vice President of the United States (2001-2009) and Donald Rumsfeld, United States Secretary of Defense (2001-2006) respectively during the Gulf War II (2003) and during the presidency of the 43^rd President of the USA George W. Bush (2001-2009).

On the other hand, the chiefs of staff are hesitant, as did President Trump himself, as he had promised pre-election that he would unblock the US from military engagements in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region. This indecision, which appears at the highest levels of US powers, has also launched the palinode in President Trump’s decision.

But sooner or later, President Trump of the events will be forced to decide. Either it should retreat to military engagement, where in this case the chances are increased-and wrongly on the part of Iran-to derail further into the conduct of Iran, considering it as a victory over the US, or should engage in military engagement and violence with what this will entail.

What has to include a new international agreement on Iran

As things have come to this breaking point, a new international agreement on Iran should be launched from the US. But this new agreement should include not only the restrictions imposed on Iran’s enriched uranium but also of equal importance with the new depleted uranium restrictions, the following issues to be implemented:

1. Implementation of reforms in the social sphere that will prove their results every time, so that these new reforms can relieve any oppression of the lives of Iranian citizens.

2. Implement reforms in the political sphere, encouraging the creation of new political bodies and parties respectively which will be involved in proven independent electoral competitions, enabling them to communicate their programs seamlessly.

3. Providing and implementing policies of a specific nature that will provide civil liberties to the citizens of Iran.

4. Implementation of reforms to create the rule of law and the gradual withdrawal of religion and its representatives from political events.

5. Full openness of the society and the market of Iran to cultural and technological organizations such as Google, Amazon, Facebook etc. for the full expression of the citizens in them.

All this themes that will make up the new international agreement on Iran will have equal weight as the reduction of enriched uranium in Iran’s nuclear program. Since all the above reforms are progressing towards its implementation and always based on a blueprint, the volume of Iran’s trade and any agreed financial assistance provided by the international community will also be increased.

At the same time, the moderate voices and reformers in Iranian society, who are now hiding behind the martial voices of fanatical Islamists who want war with the West, will be increasingly strengthened.

A new international agreement of this type will willingly bring the EU, Japan, Russia and China back to the US allies ‘ table, enabling President Trump to show his diplomatic skills.

Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis

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