The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on December 3 was important in revealing the parties’ perspectives. Putin asked Erdogan to stop “terrorist” groups attacking the Assad government.
Erdogan, on the other hand, expects Putin to further encourage Damascus towards a political solution. The relative calm in the Syrian civil war that has been ongoing since 2020 was disrupted after attacks launched by groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) against regime forces entered a new era of civil war.
Another notable development was that while the HTS captured Aleppo in a short period of time, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) also took action against the People’s Protection Units (YPG) presence in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. The developments brought Ankara and Moscow, which have a large military presence and political influence on the ground, back into action.
The first contact between the two capitals took place between Foreign Ministers Hakan Fidan and Sergey Lavrov on 30 November. The leaders’ meeting took place on 3 December. The written statements made after the Erdogan-Putin meeting were important in revealing the parties’ different assessments and expectations regarding the process.
Ankara: Regime must meet with opposition
Turkey’s statement conveyed that Ankara supports Syria’s territorial integrity, but for a lasting and just solution “the Syrian regime must engage in the political settlement process.”
The United Nations launched the Geneva Process, which brought together the regime and the opposition in Syria for a political solution in accordance with Security Council Resolution 2254, but it has been unable to make progress due to obstruction by the Damascus administration.
Turkey and other Western countries accuse Astana Process partners Russia and Iran of not putting pressure on the Assad government and of not even wanting a political solution.
Ankara also accuses Moscow and Tehran of not supporting Turkey’s long-standing efforts to normalize relations with Syria.
The presidency statement noted that Erdogan conveyed the message to Putin that “in the context of the latest developments in Syria, the most important issue is not to harm civilians.”
Erdogan is understood to have been referring to the attacks carried out by Russia and Syria in the Idlib region in recent weeks.
Security sources in Ankara say that the HTS and other opposition groups launched the current operation in response to the recent attacks.
Kremlin: ‘Terrorist’ aggression must stop
The Kremlin’s statement on the two leaders’ meeting used different language.
It was noted that Putin conveyed the message to Erdogan that the “terrorist attack” launched against the Syrian state must stop as soon as possible and the regime must be supported in establishing constitutional order and stability throughout the country.
The statement said that Putin expressed his expectation that Ankara would use its influence in the region to achieve this.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also noted at a press conference on December 4 that Moscow strongly supports the Syrian leadership’s fight against “terrorist groups.”
Zakharova alleged that opposition groups received drones and training support from foreign powers.
Despite the different assessments, the common emphasis of Ankara and Moscow was to continue coordination and diplomacy among the Astana Process partners with the participation of Tehran.
The foreign ministers of the three countries are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Doha Forum to be held in Qatar on December 7-8. However, the meeting has not yet been confirmed.
How did the Astana Process begin?
After periods of tension, Turkey and Russia have entered into greater cooperation to reduce violence and civilian casualties in Syria.
They took the first step in this direction in late 2016, during the regime siege of Aleppo, in the process of creating a safe corridor for the evacuation of dissidents and civilians from the city.
This process was later called the Astana Process in 2017 with the participation of Iran.
In addition to meetings held in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, the leaders of the three countries have alternately hosted summits and sought to coordinate political and military developments related to Syria.
However, the launch of Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 pushed Syria to the bottom of Moscow’s agenda.
Reconciliation in Idlib
Another development that seriously challenged Turkey and Russia was the Idlib region in northwestern Syria.
As a result of the agreement made in 2016, 4 de-escalation zones were declared in Syria, but as a result of Russian and Syrian attacks, 3 zones were captured and opposition groups in these areas headed to Idlib.
Among these groups were organizations such as HTS and Al-Nusra, which announced their separation from Al-Qaeda.
Although Turkey and Russia agreed to create a demilitarized safe zone in Idlib in 2018, the Damascus government’s ongoing attacks on the area have not yielded the desired results.
The death of 34 Turkish soldiers as a result of a Russian airstrike on a Turkish military convoy in the area in February 2020 caused new tension in the region.
Erdogan and Putin met again after this tension and announced a new agreement, which would take effect on March 6, 2020.
The agreed de-escalation, which included Turkish and Russian troops starting joint patrols in the safe corridors they would create, continued until November 27, 2024.
