Israel’s murderous attack on Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran inevitably means a further escalation of Israel’s war against the Palestinians. Ceasefire negotiations will be suspended for the time being, at the same time there is a threat of extending the war to Lebanon and Iran, and if the war becomes militarily threatening to Israel, even the US may be dragged into the war (please read the analysis titled “Israelis must learn from this round of conflict with their rivals and review Israel’s Strategy“).
This begs the question: who will benefit from all this, from such an escalation and a possible conflagration in the Middle East?
Analysis of the events of the last few days as they unfolded
On July 30, Iranian president-elect Massoud Peseshkian was sworn in in the presence of officials from more than 80 countries. Peseshkian was sworn in as Iran’s ninth president after his predecessor Ibrahim Raishi was killed in a helicopter crash in May. Among the guests was the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. Iran and Hamas are allies, Tehran is a major supporter of the Palestinian armed group and supplies most of its weapons and funds.
According to reports, Israeli intelligence had tracked down where Haniyeh, a well-guarded Iranian military base, would spend the night through WhatsApp, because WhatsApp always gives the exact location when messages are sent through the app. Having the exact location, Israel launched an attack, either with a short-range missile launched from Iranian soil by an Israeli special strike team (please read the analysis titled “Haniyeh’s murder: Missile (SPIKE family) strike by special operations force?“), or with a drone or an air-to-surface missile launched from F-35, on Haniyeh’s residence in northern Tehran, killing him and his bodyguard.
This shows that Israel hit Tehran very deliberately, because if Israel had access to Haniyeh’s phone, which is not difficult through modern spyware, then Israel could have assassinated him anytime and anywhere, for example in Qatar, where he lived and had his office. But such an attack on Qatar could lead to a crisis with Arab states, which Israel is reluctant to compete with as it seeks to improve relations with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which are currently on hold because of the war. in Gaza.
Thus, Iran was an excellent choice for Netanyahu for several reasons, mainly, it was a rather painful blow to the image of Iran, which was unable to protect its visitor. In Iran there are already discussions about the infiltration of Israeli intelligence into the country, as such an attack on the capital would obviously not be possible without ground support near Haniyeh’s residence. However, it should be emphasized that the assassination has no effect on Hamas’ military capabilities, because Haniyeh was “only” the political leader of Hamas, for example he was responsible for negotiations with Israel.
After the assassination, the Middle East is on the brink of a generalized war, in which the risk of directly involving Lebanon with Hezbollah, Yemen with the Houthis, Syria, Iraq and Iran is very high. While everyone proclaims that no one wants war, the actions of Israel and the US show otherwise. And it is unlikely that Israel carried out the attack without Washington’s knowledge. The assassination shows that the Israeli government is not serious about negotiations, because those who want to negotiate do not kill the other side’s negotiator.
Why did Netanyahou give the order to kill the political leader of Hamas?
Netanyahou has enough problems
- First of all, there is a corruption investigation against him, which has been suspended due to the war in Gaza. Moreover, Netanyahou’s policies have isolated Israel internationally, and only the West stands behind Israel today.
- As criticism of the Gaza genocide grows in the West, Netanyahou must fear that the West’s condescending attitude toward him could also change.
- Therefore, an escalation in which the US would be drawn into a war in the Middle East (against Iran, for example) would be an advantage for Netanyahou, because there would then be further guarantees of US support for him.
For the completeness of the analysis to the attack against Haniyeh, although at a completely theoretical level, examining the case on the basis of “cui bono” (who benefits), the scenario should also be examined, the attack was carried out – in the sense “allowed” – the Russians from the Caspian Sea. The goal would be to ignite the Middle East, further discharging the Ukrainian front, which at the moment looks “tired”! As a more feasible scenario, the Russians are the ones who win the most!
Considering the fact that Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital, the big question arises:
What will Iran do?
Netanyahou’s existence, possibly his freedom, depends on Israel continuing to wage war. This allows him to spend another year as prime minister instead of a prison inmate. In addition, an Iranian response is being forced that is most likely no longer symbolic, as in the latest retaliation for the airstrike on a diplomatic building in Damascus that killed 16 Iranian officials, including Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.
Netanyahοu thus gets the war he wants, through which he expects a drastic weakening of unruly neighboring countries through the entry of the US into the conflict. And, of course, it is another step on the road to a Greater Israel.
If someone does not break this vicious cycle to remove Netanyahοu from power, there will be another bloodbath in the Middle East, with yet unforeseeable consequences, possibly up to “mutually assured destruction”, perhaps in a real Holocaust this time.
