Russia’s attempt to improve its geopolitical environment by starting the war in Ukraine has had the opposite effect: it has given new life to NATO, which the French President had described as “clinically dead” a few years ago, strengthened it and with the recent enlargement it has reached on the northwestern border of Russia.
The Atlantic Alliance is now called upon to plan the end of the war in Ukraine at a time when the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive does not seem to be bringing the expected results. Military reinforcement of Ukraine will continue in the hope of improving its position at the front. Hope, however, is not a strategy, and this is how the next day has begun to be planned.
Whatever ceasefire line emerges on the Ukrainian front will be the new dividing line in Europe, the new Iron Curtain. The question that has been raised about the future security architecture in Europe is to do to Ukraine what was done to divided Germany in the Cold War. According to this historical parallel, Western Ukraine could join NATO and the EU, like previously divided Germany, without it having accepted what has been done, i.e. the occupation of Ukrainian territories by Russia.
This prospect gives Ukraine an incentive to end hostilities. In this case Ukraine would have to explicitly renounce changing the status quo by military means in order to be accepted into the Alliance. Such a commitment is necessary to prevent NATO from being dragged into direct war with Russia with the risk of nuclear escalation lurking.
Whether there will finally be a consensus within NATO for such a possibility, whether Russia will be able to cancel it in practice is something that will be seen in the next period. The future is still unwritten. Finally, despite NATO’s focus on European security issues, preparations have already begun for how the European allies will assist the US on its main front, which is to deal with the emerging China, thus turning the Atlantic Alliance from the Atlantic to… the Pacific.
